Read on Twitter
Energy use has become demonized by the MSM by association with carbon emissions.
Energy use is essential to our survival as a species. Let's do a quick look at how far behind the curve we are.
1/ 🧵
#bitcoin #energy #kardashev
Energy use is essential to our survival as a species. Let's do a quick look at how far behind the curve we are.
1/ 🧵
#bitcoin #energy #kardashev
2/ Proposed in 1964 by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, the Kardashev Scale is a method of measuring a civilizations technological advancement based on the amount of energy it uses.
Extensions of this methodology are used but the major classifications are Type I to III
Extensions of this methodology are used but the major classifications are Type I to III
3/ A type I civilization is able to access all the energy available on its planet and store it for consumption.
Type I is characterized as having a power consumption of 10^16 W (Watts)
Type I has harnessed, for its use, all major forms of energy available from its home planet.
Type I is characterized as having a power consumption of 10^16 W (Watts)
Type I has harnessed, for its use, all major forms of energy available from its home planet.
4/ Planetary energy sources humanity can tap include fossil and bio-derived fuels, nuclear energy, wind, solar, geothermal, and tidal, among others.
Our current energy use includes ±80% hydrocarbons.
Our current energy use includes ±80% hydrocarbons.
5/ So where does that put us on the Kardashev scale?
Well, Carl Sagan formulated a definition in a logarithmic calculation which yields a continuous function expressing K (Kardashev Scale) Where P is power, in Watts.
Well, Carl Sagan formulated a definition in a logarithmic calculation which yields a continuous function expressing K (Kardashev Scale) Where P is power, in Watts.
6/ According to data from the IEA (International Energy Agency), in 2019 the total energy supply of the entire world was 14,567,154 kTOE (kilo ton oil equivalent), or approximately 1.93 10^13 W
This puts us at approximately 0.72 K
This puts us at approximately 0.72 K
7/ 0.72 K sounds like we're really close to being a Class I Civilization!
No, simply because the scale of energy use is exponential.
Human beings are awful at visualizing exponential scales when applied to real world situations.
No, simply because the scale of energy use is exponential.
Human beings are awful at visualizing exponential scales when applied to real world situations.
8/ We are attempting to get to the back half of the Chess Board. An old story about the inventor of Chess.
forbes.com/sites/alexknap…
forbes.com/sites/alexknap…
9/ If we extrapolate an annualized growth of ±3% per year, we can graph how far along the curve we are towards being a Type I civilization.
For 2023 we should be using 2.17^13 Watts compared to a targeted 10^16 Watts for Type I
For 2023 we should be using 2.17^13 Watts compared to a targeted 10^16 Watts for Type I
10/ As you can see, our path along the energy generation curve has barely even started!
With our current level of progress we are barely above zero as far as how much potential energy production we have left to us.
With our current level of progress we are barely above zero as far as how much potential energy production we have left to us.
11/ So why is our current energy trajectory and rhetoric so dangerous?
First of all, we can look at energy use and prosperity.
There is no such thing as a low energy, rich country. This applies to a global civilization as well.
First of all, we can look at energy use and prosperity.
There is no such thing as a low energy, rich country. This applies to a global civilization as well.
12/ We're using the wrong energy sources to achieve sustainable long term growth.
Solar panels are great for localized energy generation (think private housing) but terrible for scaling up global energy production.
Current panels are 22-25% efficient.
Solar panels are great for localized energy generation (think private housing) but terrible for scaling up global energy production.
Current panels are 22-25% efficient.
13/ The second law of thermodynamics forbids a 100%-efficient solar cell. More specifically, Carnot's theorem applies to photovoltaics and any other solar energy system, where the hot side of the "heat engine" is the temperature of the sun and the cold side is the ambient temp.
14/ But even assuming a 100% efficient Solar panel, given ±1000 Watt per 1m2, how much Solar would we need?
Earths landmass is ±148,000 km2
To replace all of our current energy use with solar would mean 15% of the entire landmass of earth covered in panels.
Earths landmass is ±148,000 km2
To replace all of our current energy use with solar would mean 15% of the entire landmass of earth covered in panels.
15/ Given that theoretical maximum is ±55% efficiency from a Solar panel, we are looking more like 26% of global land mass dedicated to Solar.
This argument is hyperbole because no-one would seriously suggest this is a practical alternative..... right?
This argument is hyperbole because no-one would seriously suggest this is a practical alternative..... right?
16/ To reach Kardashev Level I civilization with Solar only would require 100% of our landmass, + 17% of water coverage.
Or, about 34% total coverage of the Earth.
Or, about 34% total coverage of the Earth.
17/ So what's our alternative?
The answer is obviously Nuclear, and we need to do it fast.
There is a calculatable decay rate in the use of Fossil Fuels for energy generation.
The answer is obviously Nuclear, and we need to do it fast.
There is a calculatable decay rate in the use of Fossil Fuels for energy generation.
18/ Predictions on Coal usage as power generation trend, and fall off around 2040 given current predictions
19/ But we are failing at building out more capacity, instead turning to land and mineral intensive, lower density sources such as renewables.
Even with planned construction we are looking at a drop in capacity around the beginning of the 2030s
Even with planned construction we are looking at a drop in capacity around the beginning of the 2030s
20/ This will have devastating consequences for the continued growth of humanity, onwards and upwards towards a Kardashev Level I civilization.
Build out of new Nuclear power technology should be priority number 1 for every single country with the capability.
Build out of new Nuclear power technology should be priority number 1 for every single country with the capability.
21/ With a mix of Nuclear and renewables and 3% compound growth we could be on target to reach Level I power generation by ±2230. More likely to be in the years 2300-2400.
What happens after level I I heard you say? Then the real fun begins.
What happens after level I I heard you say? Then the real fun begins.
22/ The sun’s total energy output, its luminosity, is approximately 4 x 10^26 W.
If human civilization can capture more than one fourth of the sun’s overall energy output and use it efficiently, ours will qualify as a Type II civilization.
If human civilization can capture more than one fourth of the sun’s overall energy output and use it efficiently, ours will qualify as a Type II civilization.
23/ Given the same 3% growth rate, compounded, we might be able to increase our power generation to 10^26W in the next few thousand years.
This is of course assuming that there are no new breakthroughs in energy generation technology.
This is of course assuming that there are no new breakthroughs in energy generation technology.
24/ Beyond Type II we enter the realms of science fiction.
For Type III we are looking at a civilization harnessing 2.5% of the luminosity generated by the entire Milky Way, which is 4x10^37.
For Type III we are looking at a civilization harnessing 2.5% of the luminosity generated by the entire Milky Way, which is 4x10^37.
25/ For this timescale we can only dream.
Perhaps 100,000 or 1 million years to achieve dominance over our local Galaxy and harness power for the expansion of humanity.
Perhaps 100,000 or 1 million years to achieve dominance over our local Galaxy and harness power for the expansion of humanity.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
