Thread by @dekuekd

Situation in #Sudan and what it means for #SouthSudan.🧵

What we are witnessing today are death throes of unequal country. Dr John Garang once said, pain of disenfranchisement and war is unknown in the north until war comes to them and there is fighting in streets of Khartoum.

For my #SouthSudanese readers the simplest background to the current war in #Sudan is this:

After SSD left, war continued in the “new South” (Nuba and Blue Nile). SPLA sponsored Khartoum’s rebels and Khartoum sponsored Juba’s rebels. But politics and economics had changed.

In #SouthSudan wars since 2012 caused havoc economically forcing J1 to pressure their pets to sue for peace with North #Sudan which Juba, without irony, sponsored.

Khartoum did the same forcing SSD rebels to sign peace with Juba. Along the way Bashir was toppled by populous.

The #Sudan|ese army not wanting to lose power removed Bashir and using militias stifled change.

Burhan (army chief) and Hemeti (head of RSF) formed a bromance.

A new unholy alliance was formed between these militias that had been used successfully to kill #SouthSudan|ese etc.

Despite, bromance, Hemeti and his brother (deputy of RSF) are unwelcomed guests among northern #Sudan|ese elites.

One they are unworthy in their eyes because they are (a) semi-literate and from wrong (b) class (c) tribe (d) wrong region and (e) never been to military cadet.

Hemeti’s lack of acceptance is something #SouthSudan|ese and others outside Khartoum and Gezira know very well. #Sudan|ese racism and discrimination is a peculiar one. Not only is it colour and religiously based it is also based education and regionalism.

North #Sudan|ese elites especially SAF don’t want to lose power but pressure from Europeans and Americans is intense.

This means SAF moving back to barracks but there is the question of militia—RSF. SAF proposed Anyanya type deal that hoodwinked #SouthSudan|ese in 70s.

SAF will handover power to civilians (meaning someone from a prominent family since they dominate the political parties in #Sudan) and RSF will be integrated into SAF (like #SouthSudan|ese) in 70s.

Northerners don’t want two groups to take power—Hemeti or Bashir’s islamists.

However, for northern elites Hemeti is their worst nightmare. He is from outside Khartoum clique. Hemeti on the other hand sees himself as a legitimate leader of #Sudan.

He propped up Bashir and kept Burhan’s puppet show running. So doesn’t see why he can’t lead.

SAF and Burhan want to transfer power in two years but Hemeti wants that delayed for 10.

Elite families—read this as “political parties”—(backed by Americans and EU) want power removed from #Sudan|ese gunmen.

Hemeti fear integration because this means losing power. Lose of power in RSF calculus lands them in The Hague for war crimes since early 2000s.

This is the first time in history of #Sudan someone outside elites of Khartoum has had so much power and tension has been building.

So yesterday, the smelly stuff hit the fan.

Things to remember while reading this thread:

a. SAF = #Sudan Armed Forces
b. RSF = Rapid Support Forces
c. SPLA = Sudan People’s Liberation Army / Movement.
d. J1 = Juba One (#SouthSudan’s White House).

It is well known among all the people in #SouthSudan, Darfur, Eastern Sudan, Blue Nile, Nuba Mts etc, whenever mad people in a house on Nile Street scheme, lives are lost.

This is the situation in which South #Sudan is watching Khartoum. What does it mean for us.

As a #SouthSudan|ese and a child in 90s I never thought I’d live at all to see Garang’s prophesy fulfil in the most startling way. Aerial bombardment and artillery strikes were the wake up alarms and lullabies of many childhoods in #Sudan.

That’s the coating on my lens as a #SouthSudan|ese looking at what’s unfolding in North #Sudan. I’ve no love for SAF or it’s prodigal child the RSF. However, from a political point of view and security interests of SSD there are reasons to support either of the two.

To the Northerners: unfortunate fact of life is that neither SAF nor RSF cares about you. #SouthSudan, EGY and ETH and all other countries don’t care about you.

I say this with love. SSD has a stake in what’s happening in #Sudan and will look after it’s interests not you.

As far as #SouthSudan as a state is concerned, the logical thing would be to support institutions. SAF, NISS, SD govt etc coz institutions are built on ideologies of governance. RSF is a mercenary force and has no ideological anchor to govern a country like North #Sudan.

As for ordinary #SouthSudan|ese, RSF is Janjaweed, or Murahaleen. These people wrecked havoc on us. They enslaved us, raided tortured and murdered millions over decades.

So for the inmates of J1, the calculation is obvious. SAF should win and consolidate control over #Sudan.

However, that’d be a short-term outlook. History, says all ills against #SouthSudan (then and now), Eastern and Western #Sudan, Nuba Mts and B Nile are always brooded in Khartoum and hatched in the peripheries.

RSF, Janjaweed, Murahaleen et al., are children of SAF.

If—and that’s a big if— SAF defeats RSF in Khartoum that doesn’t necessarily bring peace in #Sudan because the heartland of RSF is in Darfur.

RSF’s failure means lose of access to state resources. They’ll have to find them elsewhere—like from #SouthSudan.

If RSF is defeated they’ll launch a guerrilla warfare and will have to find sponsors outside #Sudan.

It is already known they have backers in the Middle East. However, the local commanders will need to feed their troops and quickest source of food is to raid #SouthSudan.

Khartoum ≠ entire #Sudan. SAF will need to fight RSF everywhere. In the lands bordering #SouthSudan that means death, destroying and displacement of Sudanese civilians.

That means SSD hosting more North SD refugees. SSD is a failed state it can’t take care of its own.

RSF can’t afford a military defeat. They know very well what that entails—brutal retribution.

In #Sudan’s history SAF always practises brutal collective punishment on tribes of rebel leaders. We know this in #SouthSudan.

Darfuris will suffer in Khartoum and in their villages.

To be able to defeat RSF, SAF will have to find allies from Eastern #Sudan, Blue Nile, Nuba etc and sponsor a new militia that will work with it.

But alternative can happen. RSF can ally with eg SPLA-N and others and turn Sudan upside. SPLA-N will need approval from #SouthSudan.

Nevertheless, the govt of #SouthSudan are professional myopics. SAF’s victory in #Sudan is of short term interest.

SAF will never achieve a military victory outside Khartoum and RSF will not achieve a total military victory over SAF (I’ll apologise later when either happens).

If this war drags out, it will most likely end up in a peace agreement between RSF and SAF. This means the ultimate losers are the people of #Sudan.

But this is the likely outcome #SouthSudan’s govt will push for and ignore its long term interest.

If RSF wins—something the elites in Khartoum will not accept or anticipate—that could mean a whole new thing in history of #Sudan.

In #SouthSudan it could be a good thing coz the long term interest of peace and security is tied with total disintegration of north Sudan.

North #Sudan is ruled by a tiny elite who have used Islam for centuries to subjugate #SouthSudan and non-Muslims.

Islam used to be a unifying factor but since the “infidels” left. Things have changed. There have been no external enemies to unifying northerners.

The old excuse of “Southern Problem” that supposedly held #Sudan up from advancing evaporated in 2011. But nothing changed.

Islam is no longer a unifying factor. Border disputes with #SouthSudan are not as motivating as jihad to the modern Sudanese.

This means is #Sudan will fragment further if the elites in Khartoum insist on holding on to power.

If RSF (Darfur in the eyes of northern elites) wins that would set a bad precedent in their eyes. They’d choose war or Darfur to succeed like #SouthSudan.

This would open flood gates for other regions of #Sudan too to want to leave. But this is a remote prospect at the moment but Balkanisation of Sudan is in the best interest of #SouthSudan in the long term.

It hasn’t worked out too bad in Balkans.

Nevertheless, disintegration of #Sudan and RSF winning is bad for #SouthSudan.

It gives hope and sets a bad example for SSD warlords and charlatans who fancy themselves revolutionaries.

Militia leaders and rebels of SSD would ape RSF and wreck havoc in hope of RSF type victory.

This would be dangerous for not just #Sudan and #SouthSudan but for the region.

The best outcome one would hope is the one in which North Sudan is united, peaceful and stable. One where Sudanese people freely elect their leaders. But that has been a dream since 1956.

For #SouthSudan, hopefully, Juba sees a sense in not supporting either side and earnestly and sincerely mediates between the two parties in #Sudan.

Nevertheless, dreams are allowed and that’s why they are free.

As things unfold, Juba is hoping someone, doesn’t matter in the short term whether it’s SAF or RSF, quickly gains an upper hand.

Those in charge in #SouthSudan want the situation in #Sudan resolved quickly because 98% of SSD’s income is from oil which is exported via Sudan only.

If #SouthSudan can’t export oil due to infrastructure damage in #Sudan, that means total economic collapse.

Bad economy makes it hard to maintain clientele warlords happy. Hungry warlords are angry warlords. The population gets restless too.

Kiir wants to stay in power too.