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Kevin Bonham Profile picture
@kevinbonham
Apr 17 • 6 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Quite likely around 1 in 10 enrolled voters will indeed not vote (even higher including informals) but I'm very sceptical that this longwinded and problematic question will capture these people.
Among other things it uses the word "registered". This aint the US, in Australia we say "enrolled". "registered" is all sorts of potentially misleading.
Voice result is trivially better (not statistically significant) than last month, 58-42 forced (was 57-43), 46-31 unforced (was 46-32)
Question on turnout also says "tick a particular box". No no no no! In Australia we write the word YES or the word NO when voting in referendums, thankyou,
Should #ResolvePM be getting ChatGPT to write its questions instead? Image
(I don't think ChatGPT's question is all that good but I do think it is better.)

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Apr 19
Legislative Council button press is proceeding in NSW (it takes about an hour). So far only the first four elected. The only suspense early on is at what point the second Green crosses.
Second Green over during distribution of minor candidates. Near the end now.
Socialists, IMOP, PEP, Bosi excluded
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Apr 18
#ResolvePM federal ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 9 (likely overstated) other 2. My 2PP estimate 61.5 to ALP (+2.1) Resolve's regular polls skew to Labor cf other polling (this is not true of their polls late in campaigns which use different methods.)
61.5 is the highest 2PP conversion I have for any poll in this term just beating 61.3 also from Resolve in Aug 2022. Nobody else has been above 57.4 on my conversions or 58,5 as a pubished 2PP. (Resolve does not normally release 2PPs and didn't for this poll.)
#ResolvePM Dutton net performance "in recent weeks" -28 down from -11 a month ago. Treat with caution because of the very low L-NP primary in this poll.
Read 10 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Apr 17
NSW Legislative Council update - the nearly complete check count is converging towards my model off the initial count though the Coalition still has some catching up to do.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/2019-n…
If the initial count was representative as concerns ATL votes then Animal Justice appear to be too far behind to be likely to win on preferences (still might get there, but looks unlikely). However ...
...there are two possible reasons why the initial count might slightly overrepresent the Coalition.

1. Some votes for the adjacent Liberal Democrats might have been missorted as Liberal-National

2. Votes with numbers both above and below the line but where the BTL is informal
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 29
Just a note on what happened with sites doing projections on Saturday night that resulted in a number of apparent Labor wins and what seemed a near-certain majority collapsing. The main issue was overconfident assumptions about prepoll swings replicating booth swings. #NSWvotes
Not only is there a general trend of prepolls having a lower swing than booths at this election but the gap happens to have been especially large in some seats where Labor needed it not to be. Holsworthy 5.8% different, Terrigal 4.0%, Ryde 4.4%, Goulburn 3.3% Kiama 3.5%
This makes a difference because the number of prepolls is so huge. In Terrigal there are over 12000 prepolls. If those had swung as much as the booths then Labor would be almost 800 ahead instead of over 200 behind.
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 28
Hearing there's silly stuff about #nswvotes being a "landslide". Crazy example from yesterday pm (by which time majority was already unclear):

" Barry O’Farrell defeated Kristina Keneally in a landslide victory similar to Saturday’s."

(culprit is news.com.au )
2011: 64.2% 2PP, 32 govt seats lost, 16.5% swing, 45 seat majority

2023: (approx) 54% 2PP, 12-3 govt seats lost, 6% swing, 1 to 3 seat minority
I was not even looking for this, I found it by accident while looking for next Liberal leader speculation.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 27
High chance now that NSW will get a hung parliament. But it's a vanilla one where it's clear who governs and they just don't quite have a majority, not one of the really close ones that hangs in uncertainty until some indie finishes one of his sentences 17 days later. #NSWvotes
Also ABC 2PP down to 54-46.
Note that the statement from the three indies today means that the Greens' requirements for supply and confidence will become irrelevant.
Read 4 tweets

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