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Emil Kastehelmi

Apr 21, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

Heavy fighting on the northern side of Bakhmut. In the Khromove road area, despite constant attacks and shelling, Russians have not made any significant progress for weeks.

Our #OSINT team acquired some satellite images which will explain why the attack has mostly halted. 1/🧵

The main reason for the static situation are the extensive fortifications dug by the Ukrainians. They were well prepared to defend against the Russians, and they have held their positions even under the most difficult conditions, even longer than I initially expected. 2/

The general situation in the area looks like this. There can be some slight errors, as some areas are constantly changing hands. Russians are pushing from all sides, and Ukraine is conducting small-scale counterattacks inside the city and the surrounding areas. 3/

The main fighting is taking place in the trenches near the Khromove road. The Russians have concentrated their artillery fire here, and the ground is black from the shelling. Even though the fortifications are damaged, they still seem to be somewhat usable. 4/

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1648699457100210182

This famous clip shows what fighting on the ground looks like. I'm usually trying to avoid the phrase "this looks like WW1", but the video coupled with the satellite imagery does give me a feeling that I've seen this before, so to say. 5/

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1648699457100210182

The Khromove road is not in active use anymore, and has not been for a few weeks, as it has become too dangerous. Satellite images show multiple destroyed vehicles on the side of the road.

Main supply routes go from Ivanivske to Bakhmut. 6/

Holding this area is extremely important for Ukraine. If it falls, Russians are at visual range from the remaining supply roads. If they manage continue towards the heights behind Ivanivske, Ukraine is most likely forced to abandon Bakhmut. 7/

This battle shows again, that trenches do matter. Now Ukraine is using them to repel Russian attacks, but it will be difficult when Ukraine needs to punch through the Russian fortifications in multiple directions during their spring offensive. HIMARS isn't the answer to this. 8/

An interesting little detail: A rather large fire in the Russian-controlled zone, next to a forest strip. It is unclear what is burning there, but there is a lot of smoke coming out of it. 9/

@J_JHelin

Our team (me, @J_JHelin, @EerikMatero, @Inkvisiit and others) continues to monitor the situation. We're constantly updating our interactive map.

Also, more satellite stuff to come. Thanks to @wihurinrahasto for making this possible. 10/10

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Emil Kastehelmi

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May 17

The Kharkiv offensive has been ongoing for a week. Russia had some initial success, but Ukraine has been able to restrain Russian forces from advancing deeper.

There are many narratives and claims surrounding the situation. First, why was Russia able to advance so quickly? 1/

"Digital scanning" of the border area is almost continuous. The Russian air reconnaissance, electronic warfare and strike teams and are active in many areas. This made it difficult for Ukraine to prepare heavy defences or to concentrate a large amount of troops at the border. 2/

For Ukraine, the reasonable option was to use the depth to their advantage, as they did. A few kilometres from the border, the Russians can rely less on prepared positions and other infrastructure on Russian territory, and they have to bring their supporting elements forward. 3/

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One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/

Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/

Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/

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Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.

The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/

The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/

t.me/rian_ru/237104

It's not known who is behind this, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Islamic terrorists. Wouldn't be the first time in Russia.

It's interesting to see what will the official explanation for the attack be, who will they blame, and if they try to tie Ukraine to this. 3/

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Dark months ahead for Ukraine.

The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.

In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi

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Feb 9

I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.

Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵

Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.

Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/

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Emil Kastehelmi

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Jan 20

Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.

Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6

Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.

There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/

Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.

It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/