But more importantly, the #HockeyStick was not only validated, but extended using independent data and methods in subsequent years, leading the @theNASciences (of which I'm now proud to be a member) to subsequently reaffirm our findings: nature.com/articles/44110…
The attacks on the iconic graph by climate change deniers, fossil fuel front groups and their hired guns would nonetheless continue on, leading me to publish "The Hockey Stick & the Climate Wars" (2012; @ColumbiaUP) about my experiences: amazon.com/Hockey-Stick-C… #HSCW
By 2008, there was a veritable "Hockey League" of reconstructions each of which indicated that global/hemispheric warmth over the past few decades was unprecedented for at last the past millennium and likely longer: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
Subsequent work by the #PAGES2k team of ~80 scientists around the world using expanded data and refined methods produced the most authoritative reconstruction to date (nature.com/articles/ngeo1…). It was virtually indistinguishable from the #HockeyStick:
The #PAGES2k group would expand and refine their own work, extending the original #HockeyStick conclusion, i.e. the recent warmth is likely unprecedented in at last the past 2000 years: nature.com/articles/sdata…
The @IPCC_CH, in its 2021 6th Assessment report SPM (ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1…) would feature an extended version of the #HockeyStick, concluding that "Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years" https://t.co/andW6AbO42
Here (from my commentary in @TIME magazine: time.com/6088531/ipcc-c…) is a direct comparison of the #HockeyStick graphs shown in the 2001 @IPCC_CH 3rd assessment report and 2021 6th assessment report Summary for Policymakers (SPM):
Months later, a team of scientists publishing in the same journal (@Nature) that published the original #HockeyStick, would extend it back in time more than 20,000 years, showing that recent warming is likely unprecedented over this much longer time frame: nature.com/articles/s4158
Here's an article I published a couple year ago in @PNAS_news discussing the lessons we can learn from the common era of the past two millennia that go *beyond" the #HockeyStick graph: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
The resilient "scientists should never engage in advocacy" admonishment has once again reared its head in mainstream science discourse.
I've written on why such thinking is misguided and in fact dangerous on several occasions: 🧵
From "If You See Something, Say Something" (my 2014 @NYTimes op-ed):
"If scientists choose not to engage in the public debate, we leave a vacuum that will be filled by those whose agenda is one of short-term self-interest. There is a great cost to society if scientists fail to participate in the larger conversation — if we do not do all we can to ensure that the policy debate is informed by an honest assessment of the risks. In fact, it would be an abrogation of our responsibility to society if we remained quiet in the face of such a grave threat. nytimes.com/2014/01/19/opi…
@nytimes "Reflections on Leo Szilard, The Fragility of Truth and the Role of the Scientist in the Public Sphere" | My acceptance speech for the 2022 @APSphysics Leo Szilard award: engage.aps.org/fps/resources/…
We (@Rahmstorf et al) inferred this scenario eight years ago in this @NatureClimate study:
(see also Stefan's #RealCimate commentary: )
Key figure below. Even then, there was evidence that conveyor collapse might be underway: nature.com/articles/nclim… realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
@rahmstorf @NatureClimate I discussed the evidence that has since accumulated for potential ocean conveyor ("AMOC") collapse in this @PNASNews article a couple years ago: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
Remember when climate deniers were claiming back in 2012 that global warming had paused and models were overestimating greenhouse warming?🧵
That was based on cherry-picking starting & stopping dates, exploiting a decadal excursion of natural climate variability that led to a temporary slowdown of warming through 2012 or so (the observations are red, the average over models is black: ) realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
When we look at the subsequent comparison through the present, we instead see that the models and observations agree well, including the provisional value for 2023 (green vertical bar at the end).
Interesting analysis and op-ed in the @NYTimes the other day from my friend & colleague Zeke @Hausfath which argues for an acceleration of recent surface warming:
@NASAGISS I not only reproduced Zeke's result, but found an even bigger effect, with the trend from 2008-2023 a whopping 70% greater than the trend from 1970-2008
(the difference in trend is statistically significant at the p=0.01 i.e. 99% level)
Remarkable to me that some seemingly cannot hold these two entirely compatible facts in their minds at the same time: 1. The Hamas attack was a barbarous act of terrorism. 2. Disputes over resources (esp. water) have been a contributing factor behind all middle east conflict. 🧵
Instead, I get angry responses from some that reduce this nuanced point, made in my recent @TheHill op-ed (), to the childish caricature that I somehow claimed that water access was behind the Hamas attack.thehill.com/opinion/energy…
@thehill Obviously, I didn't say that. I said that the battle for water has always been an underlying factor in middle east conflict, including conflict between Israel & Palestine, and that climate change is amplifying that underlying stress. There is substantial scholarship behind that.
@jayrosen_nyu A couple billion dollars from Saudis was a great investment, if they were looking to suppress climate-forward messaging and promote climate denial/inaction propaganda on the world's leading social media platform
()aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/2…