LC (though common!) is in some sense an outlier.
Outliers contain a lot of information.
And gives us a hint of what lies ahead for majority, if re-infections continue. /4
At country-level, we saw some countries have surges of infectious diseases other than Covid; but not in others. A mix of factors involved: climate, rainfall, geography, disease monitoring, study designs... /5
My paper on 'Effective strategies against Covid-19 & the importance of infection sequelae' is out.👇
In this paper I:
a. Summarize the evidence on longer-term harms
b. Explain what is Strategy vs. operational plans
c. Propose a template for an Effective Strategy /1
'Flatten the curve' better than mass-infection, but it also:
a. Ignored precautionary principle.
b. Represented dominance of a self-centered health system, over a people-centered one. /2
@WHO replaced this in March 2022 with a much better approach, focusing on prevention.
However, it has limitations; e.g. the focus isn't on all individuals & airborne transmission is notably not mentioned.
Still, if most countries did this, it would be far better than today. /3
1. #Lebanon is entering a very dark period with #COVID19, as we expected. The next 2-3 weeks will have more regular daily deaths of 10-20 people. Little can be done to change that. If nothing new happens, the weeks after that will be even worse.
**What is to be done?**
2. National lockdown? Ideal in some ways, but realistically unlikely. Compliance varies heavily, people exhausted by overlapping crises have limited compliance, central authorities have limited enforcement capacity.
Only alternative➡️Green Zone Strategy ...
3. Green-zoning would categorize Regions as Green/Yellow/Red, depending on #COVID19 community spread. Effectively, it means selectively imposing restrictions at sub-national level. Green zones have zero community transmission, life&work w.least restrictions, near-normal...