Thread by @davidhelms570

1/ It has been almost a month since I provided a #MudSeason trafficability forecast. My assumption of a "normal" spring rainfall & improving trafficability were way too optimistic as it has rained Every. Damn. Day. since late March 2023. A #NAFOWeather 🧵

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1640435438182694912?s=20

2/ #BLUF The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.

3/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: @DefenceHQ "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations vor both sides" but "conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks".

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1649289636001329153?s=20

4/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: Prigozhin (authoritative?) "The offensive does not begin for understandable reasons: this is a monstrous slush" ... "The soil still needs around ten days to dry" (editorial: AFTER rain stops!)

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649521561274048512?s=20

5/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur "the biggest obstacle to a counteroffensive is weather (as) weather is quite rainy ... could be another month before we can talk about a real counteroffensive"

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1650139768649383944?s=20

6/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: "The guys from the trenches say hi to everyone, especially those who ask 'when is the counter-offensive."

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1650208272446521345?s=20

7/ Example #MudSeason trafficability conditions no later than 22 April:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1649653797998788610?s=20

8/ Example #MudSeason trafficability conditions no later than 22 April: "The soldiers of the 3rd separate presidential brigade showed the roads in Donetsk region that can only be used by military vehicles or soldiers' boots."

https://twitter.com/operativno_ZSU/status/1649757258765541376?s=20

9/ Example #MudSeason trafficability conditions no later than 22 April:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1649813678177353728?s=20

10/ Example #MudSeason trafficability conditions no later than 23 April:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1650217547042631681?s=20

11/ Back to my updated trafficability forecast. Here are some of the considerations for extending the #MudSeason by about a month from "normal" spring on-set of good trafficability:

12/ Past two weeks accumulated precipitation (11-23 April) indicates 20-30 mm of rainfall. Luhansk and Donetsk will probably finish April with almost twice as much rainfall as normal.

13/ ECMWF 10 Day Total Accumulation Forecast through 4 May 2023 indicates significant rainfall predicted over Luhansk and Donetsk, decreasing amounts towards Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

14/ Short-term ground trafficability forecast (through 1 May 2023)

15/ Copernicus C3S probability of cumulative rainfall anomaly for April-May-June:

16/ With increasing daily temperatures and decreasing humidity, soil WILL dry out providing sufficient strength to support tracked and wheeled vehicles and offensive operations. [Caveat: As long as weekly rainfall is less than 12-15 mm!]

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