Here's a thread on how to navigate these successfully using three different strategies.
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Strategy 1: The VIX Futures Term Structure Strategy
This strategy is based on the term structure of VIX futures. The goal is to take advantage of a persistent roll yield and stay in the ETP that is in the same direction as the roll yield, e.g. SVIX when the term structure is in contango and VXX when the term structure is in backwardation.
You can measure this using a ratio of VX1 (first month VIX futures) to VX2 (second month VIX futures), VX1 to VX3, or spot VIX to VIX3M. It's all the same idea.
While a persistent contango can result is wonderful gains in SVIX, following this strategy as-is will generally have you underperform for a couple reasons.
Many people are watching the zero-line of the term structure (where VX1 = VX2). More often than not, equity support levels are at levels that coincide with a flat term structure. This is generally a better time to buy SVIX than to sell SVIX as the Term Structure trade strategy would suggest.
The near term VIX Futures contracts (front two months) rise together and fall together. The front two months can remain in contango and make daily gains over the course of weeks, which translates directly into losses for SVIX.
Below is a chart of the daily VIX and VIX Futures values over the past 6 months. Despite a persistent contango, there was a large increases through September ad October. However, if you monitor the spread between the lines to determine if that spread is getting narrower you’re going to hit the exit button before larger losses.
We get a lot of questions about our services, so today we're going to take you on a virtual tour of our entire Stocks+ platform!
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It starts at the GEX Charts page, where we track adjusted gamma exposure for 1,200 stocks every day. Get a look at relevant gamma data:
- Net GEX
- GEX by Strike for all Expirations
- GEX by Strike for selected Exp
- IV & Skew
- Buy Rating
- Historical net SA-GEX values vs price
- Historical download button
- Export gamma levels to TradingView & ToS
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Skew Charts page for:
- a visual of the current 30-DTE skew + 5-day history
- table of expected moves
- historical IV vs price
- historical call skew vs price
- historical P/C OI and P/C volume by day
- download button for historical data
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From today's release:
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Over the past decade or two, we have seen various economic instruments being used and invented, each with a lagging effect on different parts of the economy. This article… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2) The Complexities of Inflation and the Market: A Multi-Dimensional Approach
Inflation and the market have been hot topics for a while, and there is no shortage of opinions and predictions. However, a lot of the conversations around these topics tend to be overly simplistic and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) The Coming Inflationary Push and its Impact on the Markets
Inflation has been a major concern for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the markets lately, with the fear that it might spiral out of control. In a recent discussion, the speaker talks about the historical inflationary… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
A lot of DIY traders/investors rely on charts, volume, & TA.
This can work well for awhile under the right conditions, but they fail when options flows change without them noticing and then lose a bunch of money.
Too many people are using strategies that will inevitably fail.
Pros have been using options flow data for years for more consistent profits.
It's now available to everyone. Anyone who is willing to learn something new can benefit.
This is a critical piece of data in understanding the market. These are measurable forces at work.