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NEW Study from the hard-hit Maharashtra area of India shows BRUTAL: #SARS3 #Covid #XBB116 #Arcturus strain has a fatality rate of 1 in 40 with a staggering 1 in 3 needing oxygen, and nearly 30% being hospitalised with the new strain: 
Finally we have something resembling some form of actual data from India about this strain: and it's not pretty:
'Among the XBB.1.16* cases, 91.7% were vaccinated with at least one dose of vaccine against COVID-19. While 74.3% of XBB.1.16* ...
'Among the XBB.1.16* cases, 91.7% were vaccinated with at least one dose of vaccine against COVID-19. While 74.3% of XBB.1.16* ...
..cases were home-isolated; 25.7% needed hospitalization/institutional quarantine, of these, 33.8% needed oxygen therapy. Out of 276 XBB.1.16* cases, seven (2.5%) cases succumbed to the disease.'
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Those are extremely high numbers of severe disease and death from this strain: whether or not they are accurately representing the strain or rather missing many cases is not clear: however, they do seem to have a nice big sample base (297 cases of XBB116)
Which is not a bad number for sampling and can be used to some degree to estimate the severity: so we expect the deaths and severe disease to be high with this strain based on that: HOW HIGH?
'Wear a mask—save yourself!' the cries of Indian Dr's on the frontlines battling the new strain:
https://twitter.com/markwarling3/status/1653196695587414016
At this point it's absolutely clear that this strain is no joke at all: and wear a mask and get prepared for this one: is really looking pretty fucking horrible.
From the reports I've had of people outside of India who think they have this strain recently and or currently: yeah it does seem to be pretty bad: it's actually extremely concerning (more on that tomorrow)
Hospitalisation rate may well be that high from what I've heard: with one family of 4 infected in the UK having 2 members hospitalized with this virus so far: one aged 88, the other aged just 8.
Get prepared for a lot of Long covid and in particular: acute long covid, because this shit is fucking bad, bad, bad, news: I just hope it doesn't turn out to be as bad it is looking right now.
https://twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1652832044571938823twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
if it turns out to be 1 in 3 have severe disease with an infectivity rate as high as it is with this thing and the immune evasion which is basically 100% or close to for many at this point, and a facility of 2.5% : OUCH, we can't do this.
That will break the system totally with in a matter of weeks if 1 in 3 people needs oxygen (most won't get it as we know) and that means many will be left to die gasping for air: I just don't see how that can work: even by 'death immunity' standards:
That's just going to break the system: God , this is awful if it holds out to be even close to accurate: and I think it may well do sadly
As is always the case, if the herd immunity folks would like to go first nd jump right into this one here, then who are we to stop them?
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