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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
May 4 • 14 tweets • 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. This is fascinating to see when applying for energy and climate positions: Most institutions value subject-matter expertise. Systems problems* caused by nonlinear feedbacks with multi-year lags call for systems expertise.

* SARS/climate as prime examples; there are many more!
2. Interestingly, I do and share nothing special; anyone and everyone could do the same. That's the entire point. We can't possibly solve global systems challenges in private expert dialogues. Societal learning requires people who do the societal teaching!
3. It's not trivial; consider the climate perspective. The pandemic focus was/is already a vast simplification. Not to take global health policy as an easy off-ramp - that even comes with a valid actionable legal framework - will only escalate complexity.
4. As Art and @RealCheckMarker say, the student may be getting ready over the coming years. Central drivers of change will be insurances and lawyers. Ideally fast to avert harming students and pre-school children in the process.
@RealCheckMarker 5. This meme nicely illustrates the global governance challenge.
@RealCheckMarker 6. Our feedback mechanisms in society are broken, making learning from past mistakes near impossible. It's originally a lesson of LTG 1972, eloquently shared by @bethsawin. You can see it play out live in the SARS pandemic—or in economics. @ProfSteveKeen:
7. The climate example is more obvious now because we’ve been at it for 25 years. As a systems problem, climate is easily in the grasp of pre-teens; and already was in the 1990s as I can attest. The pandemic example is harder, because brutally fast with little scope for learning.
8. The math is brutal. Two years for political leadership change to allow criticism in US domestic politics, and perhaps similar timescales elsewhere. 2-15 years to see impacts in kids.

2 to 15 (!) years may allow a LOT of damage to accumulate before it’s visible on the surface.
9. An economy driven by greed and exploitation will consume first it’s children and then itself. This is precisely what’s happening in the pandemic.

Concise thread
10. When I say climate and SARS are legal problems, to most people it's white noise. They don't know what to do because they were never trained in law and social sciences.

This @AufstandLastGen court order is important 'legal' climate progress in Germany:
@AufstandLastGen 11. Friends asked for my concise threads on climate feedbacks, similar those on SARS-CoV. Here one; I can also share more. Yet the @fitterhappierAJ @RealCheckMarker's of climate change don't exist, I think for complexity.

That's big part of our challenge.
12. Thorsten is right, there’s a lot of talk about Taiwan (and even China) in the west, seldom with. That’s why I share quite a bit from Taiwanese & (rarely, given increasingly challenging access) Chinese perspectives.
64 #mpox cases in 2023 to date in Taiwan alone. WHO without one of the best healthcare systems in Asia arguably is missing out, and vice versa. I’m still astonished that @statnews argues for “Living with” SARS and a pox virus.

Lol what’s the politics there @HelenBranswell?
Pandemic potential viruses will always require international cooperation, especially if they infect dozens (pox virus) and millions (sarbecovirus) of patients per week.

Funny that we even need to say it. Image

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 6
1. Shall we collect philosophy of science papers that explain today’s scientific challenges? Reflection required for MDs, policymakers and the public if we want to learn at scale.
2. To start with the most relevant example, the clown show of 'wet market in Wuhan' discussion just keeps going, defying scientific evidence for a beginning of the pandemic outside Wuhan before September 2019.

It's the weirdest psyop I've ever witnessed. academic.oup.com/nsr/article/9/… ImageImage
3. Awkward not just for Dr. Rasmussen personally, but for all the media worldwide who've been parading her as 'authority' on the start of the pandemic, no? This is actually funny. Let's see what evidence emerges over time.
Read 9 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 6
Once again: certain states wanted to end the COVID-19 PHEIC because it meant the need for international travel surveillance, cooperation and data sharing, and liabilities in the $ trillions for healthcare workers (and more) disabled or dead with SARS-CoV-2 due to inadequate PPE.
Autocorrect tells me lie-ability is a liability
Rare occasion where I can add to the linguistic wit of @RealCheckMarker. I’d venture encephalitis spells « unsafe-a-lie-t’is »
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 5
1. It’s not generally advisable to bet against SARS/MERS experts in a SARS pandemic, but let’s FAFO shall we?

Reality predictions vs. what happened in reality. No epidemiology without epidemiological data and funding epidemiological research: check ✅
2. Here the big one. Three overlapping waves à 3 months, one each month. (To spell it out, you can get reinfected every month, vs. every three months now): still open. Let’s dedicate two more years to unmitigated transmission to find out 😈
2a. Models that generate such behavior are standard examples in system dynamics, given the obvious societal relevance.
Read 11 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 5
That’s a great climate-gender event at HU! Is there anything on SARS-CoV in the discussions, as it’s not on the agenda? Feminist friends, please don’t make me say it.

Let’s start with a trivial point, you need a conference hashtag. @sandra_jasper 笑哭不得 gender.hu-berlin.de/en/events/natu…
2. I’d have attended for that keynote alone! Thank you,
3. SARS-CoV single-spike-handedly set back feminism by decades. If you don’t know how precisely, I encourage you to read up fast. - This is what I shared in parallel for example. I assume no one in the audience saw it. Does anyone even read current literature?

We’re in trouble.
Read 13 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 5
I'm just a systems scientist reading anything written by anyone for the author's awareness of the limits of their own language and mental model. As @kali0x2a here explains, if you don't show you even know what 'mental model' & 'limits' means, there's little use in reading deeper. Image
@kali0x2a I don't say "no use," because oftentimes one learns most from superficial error. Just no deep reading, apologies everyone. It's why most climate, and indeed SARS-CoV, arguments barely scratch the surface.

However interesting the natural science, it's merely a step up the ladder.
@kali0x2a Climate scholars and philosophers have been there,
Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 5
Casual reminder, SARS-CoV-1 was one chronic infection in thousands of patients, not reinfections in billions.

There also was policy, a goal to end the pandemic, international cooperation and a plan how. All this is missing still.

Are we all aware and work on these deficits? ☺️
Interesting exchange with @W_Lucht. The only public health popular myth that needs correcting: unlike 2003, in 2020 the US, UK, EU never tried to stop SARS-CoV-2. They protected airline business interests over the health and lives of the world population.
Start with this thesis on how policy was delivered in 2003.
Read 8 tweets

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