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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
@TimInHonolulu
May 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Here's the current FIRMS Fire data in #Bakhmut. The area that appears to be burning are areas in the west and south currently held by Ukraine. Image
2. There appears to be an increase in Ukraine battle space fires that are being detected by the NASA Firms system. One big one is Alchevsk that is Russian-held rail center 54 miles ESE of Bakhmut. Image
3. Ukraine has hit #Alchevsk in the past and looks like Ukraine unloaded on it again. All of these attacks are consistent with the run up to a coming Ukrainian offensive. Image
4. Another interesting FIRMS Fire hit is in Krasna Hora just 4.5 miles north of Bakhmut and on a rail line. That area is currently Russian held but in the area of the weak flank that remains a threat to maintaining the Wagner gains. Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 5
1. Being a trial lawyer you face a sense of dread that something was overlooked. The decision to not put on a case in a civil case is something that I cannot fathom. Tacopena is a criminal defense attorney and that is sometimes a rational strategy in a criminal case where the
2. burden is beyond a reasonable doubt. Stated in other words, beyond a moral certainty. So a defendant can show the Govt didn't meet the burden by simply attacking their evidence showing how a reasonable juror can find doubt and it only takes 1 to hang the jury or 12 to win.
3. But a civil case has a very different standard. It's the preponderance of the evidence. Just a tad over 50% likelihood and the plaintiff wins. But here's the point, to even get to argue that you have met the civil burden you have to put on a case. It is true that
Read 8 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 4
1. Wednesday's Kremlin drone strike was followed by Russian threats to deploy nuclear weapons but thus far only resulted in a minor Shahed drone attack on Kyiv that was defended with no reported casualties. Ukraine continues preparing for the offensive by attacking fuel depos.
2. Weather was generally clear Donbas and the south and the forecast remains free of significant rain for the next several days. It may take some time for the ground to dry enough to support a mechanized assault force but the ground in the south is reportedly sandy
3. soil that is less prone to produce the deep mud that has limited movement. Bakhmut appeared to be fairly quiet with no reports of major changes in territory.
Moscow may now have a better idea of who actually hit the Kremlin and my guess is that they know it wasn't Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 3
1. On @NicolleDWallace reporting that Fox board was bringing in "an outside law firm" to investigate, it's likely something the audit committee had to do under Sarbanes-Oxley. But that would be driven by a concern that something material had not been disclosed in the SEC filings.
2. I don't know how the, "White people don't fight like that" text got out. Was it covered by a pre-trial protective order? But if they were investigating under run up to Sarbanes-Oxley outside counsel investigation safe harbor it suggests that it was a lot worse and this text
3. may just be the tip of the iceberg. My initial suspicion is that Carlson had agreed to advance a violent insurrection and there is evidence of it. If that were done and management knew, it could result in a forced divestiture by the Murdoch family.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Apr 27
1. Still no word on #Erdogan. Two hours ago Erdogan's constitutional successor Fuat Okta posted a Tweet that was continuing on praise for the completion of a rail line that was the subject of Wednesday's Tweets. Daily Sabah, Hureyiet and AnkaraGazetesi have nothing
2. about Erdogan being ill. The Erdogan family affiliated Anadolu Agency was briefly down. It's back. Consistent with somebody taking control of it. I'm at 75% that something has happened to Erdogan noting a number of Turkish accounts are openly
3. saying things that assume he's dead knowing. He charged 30 people once for falsely claiming he was dead so saying it has some degree of risk. The Chinese state affiliated media retraction of the early report of Erdogan's serious illness remain curiously unexplained.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Apr 25
1. In the southern front Russian forces have commenced attacks along the line of contact in two areas where it appears the Russian forces are attempting draw the Ukrainians into engaging to fix them and divert them from the expected offensive. Image
2. Ukraine has created a dilemma for the Russian command by occupying the remote areas in the Dnipro delta across from Kherson. They're in a position to raise havoc behind Russian lines and cut off entrance at Armiansk while homegrown 1,000lb Hrim-2 ballistic missiles take Image
3. out key targets like the bridges in Chonhar and Henihesk. Kerch too but they may want to wait to do that so the Russians have a way out. Give them an option to withdraw. It appears that the attack on Sevastopol and an earlier launched Hrim-2 targeted near Image
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Apr 24
1. IMO, if Tucker Carlson was not a Russian spy he certainly played one on TV. I have thought from 2015 that Trump was a Kremlin asset whose Russian mob funded DB-serviced loans gave him a line to the Kremlin. I believe the SVR/SFB were involved in the Jan 6 attack and that
2. at some point the Special Counsel will begin to expose the Kremlin connection in the ongoing investigations. Boris Epshteyn was the first. Tucker could just be another domino.
3. Counterintelligence investigations have to learn the extent of the penetration and then act to stem the damage. I don't think they would expose any of this to the current grand juries. The Epshteyn interview IMO is consistent with that view.

#45 is an enemy agent loyal to
Read 5 tweets

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