JennyManyDots Profile picture
May 8, 2023 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
5 key charts to watch in global commodity markets this week
1. OIL
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
2. Saudi Aramco likely made net income of just over $32 billion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. That would mark a slowdown from a year earlier — similar to other oil firms that have already reported Image
3. Energy stocks- a look at the technicals adds to the bearish sentiment: The gauge’s 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day average last week in a so-called death cross, the first time since late 2018. That often signals that further selling pressure is in store. Image
4. Metals
BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2022, demand for the metal will be 16 times the total #lithium in use today by 2040, potentially outrunning supply by more than 40%. Image
5. Agriculture
American corn exports will be in focus on Friday when the US Department of Agriculture releases its first outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season as part of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Image

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More from @jenstilmanydots

Jan 4
We all know the name Chrystia Freeland, but do you know the name Michael Sabia? Justin Trudeau and the Desmarais family know Sabia rather well - you probably should too.

Michael Sabia was the Deputy Minister of Finance Canada from December 2020 to June 2, 2023.

/Thread
Under Sabia:

Public debt costs increased from $24.5B in 2021-2022 to $34B in 2022-23, reaching $46.5B in 2023.

This is a dizzying jump of 89% in just two years.

journaldemontreal.com/2023/05/24/mic…
'The $15 billion that Mr. Sabia had announced in the 2022 federal budget for the creation of the Canada Growth Fund have not yet yielded anything. A year and a half after its creation, the Fund still has no manager and has not announced any investment.'
Read 11 tweets
Jan 1
There is one family running Canada and the last name is not Trudeau, it's Desmarais.

Major shareholders of Lion Electric? Say it ain't so...

@GregMcLeanYYC
@MPelletierCIO
@RealAndyLeeShow

/Thread Image
A long time top donor to the Liberal party, the Desmarais family, the owners of the appropriately named Power Corporation have had an intimate connection with Canadian prime ministers for decades.
niagaraindependent.ca/power-corps-50…Image
'Canadians need only to follow the money and connect the dots between the main players of the governing Liberals to comprehend PM Trudeau’s unintelligible – and unprincipled – responses to the CCP.'
niagaraindependent.ca/the-ties-that-…
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
2023 might be 1936 all over again - beyond the weather 🤔

Yes, I'm a nerd🤓
Spent my entire afternoon looking at El Niño (blue) & La Niña (pink) data for the past century. Stars reflect triple dip La Niña, which we just finished. Might explain our unusually dry weather./thread Image
Weaker triple dip La Niñas occurred in 1973-76 & 1998-2001 - perhaps why the drought severity wasn't as extreme as previous triple dips. ImageImage
From mid-April 2022 more than 97% of Texas was gripped by drought
👋 Hi Texas - if history is any guide, then it looks like El Niño will bring you some relief.
Yup, appears to be happening... ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Jun 11, 2023
NYT 1977
The major extreme in the US at the moment is drought. It extends over 30% of the country and is spreading. Water rationing, which began in California, is now commonplace throughout the West and has spread into Iowa and as far east as NC.(1/4)
nytimes.com/1977/07/14/arc… Image
Nearly 3/4s of the nation's rivers are flowing below normal, according to the USGS.
Why the extreme fluctuations nobody knows for sure. Explanations include cyclical changes in solar activity, in elliptical warps of the earth's orbit, in gravitational pulls of other planets,
and volcanic activity to name a few. Some scientists assert that man's pollution may be responsible. Some laymen believe governments are secretly manipulating the weather in a kind of climatic warfare.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11, 2023
India drought: The Great Disruptor for 2023
While everyone keeps looking over to China for supply/demand side signals for most ag market prices, instead the market should be looking over to India as the surprise catalyst for 2023.
(1/4)
barchart.com/story/news/176…
June is looking to be the driest and hottest seen in decades.
July is the wettest, most important month of the growing season for India; if July misses there is no way to recover crop potential. July could be the worst monsoon season since the failed July of 2002.
India experiencing strong economic growth with some of the best demographics in the world and arguably the most populace country in the world…India might be the new demand source to drive Ag prices higher as China did back in the 2000's.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11, 2023
OPEC+ in "a state of readiness" amid a divergence between the physical and futures oil markets, which has prompted the 23-member alliance to take decisions that are preemptive, precautionary and proactive, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said June 11 (1/5)
spglobal.com/commodityinsig…
"I think the physical market is telling us something, I think the futures market is telling us something else," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Arab China Business Conference streamed live from Riyadh.
Brushing off criticism of the latest OPEC+ decisions, Prince Abdulaziz said he tolerates "all mockeries," adding "I am much more interested with my colleagues in OPEC+ to do the job of being a proper regulator."
Read 5 tweets

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