2023 might be 1936 all over again - beyond the weather 🤔

Yes, I'm a nerd🤓
Spent my entire afternoon looking at El Niño (blue) & La Niña (pink) data for the past century. Stars reflect triple dip La Niña, which we just finished. Might explain our unusually dry weather./thread Weaker triple dip La Niñas occurred in 1973-76 & 1998-2001 - perhaps why the drought severity wasn't as extreme as previous triple dips.

NYT 1977
The major extreme in the US at the moment is drought. It extends over 30% of the country and is spreading. Water rationing, which began in California, is now commonplace throughout the West and has spread into Iowa and as far east as NC.(1/4)
nytimes.com/1977/07/14/arc… Nearly 3/4s of the nation's rivers are flowing below normal, according to the USGS.
Why the extreme fluctuations nobody knows for sure. Explanations include cyclical changes in solar activity, in elliptical warps of the earth's orbit, in gravitational pulls of other planets,

India drought: The Great Disruptor for 2023
While everyone keeps looking over to China for supply/demand side signals for most ag market prices, instead the market should be looking over to India as the surprise catalyst for 2023.
(1/4)
barchart.com/story/news/176… June is looking to be the driest and hottest seen in decades.
July is the wettest, most important month of the growing season for India; if July misses there is no way to recover crop potential. July could be the worst monsoon season since the failed July of 2002.

OPEC+ in "a state of readiness" amid a divergence between the physical and futures oil markets, which has prompted the 23-member alliance to take decisions that are preemptive, precautionary and proactive, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said June 11 (1/5)
spglobal.com/commodityinsig… "I think the physical market is telling us something, I think the futures market is telling us something else," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the Arab China Business Conference streamed live from Riyadh.

#Commodity sector continues its strong start to June with the Bloomberg Commodity Index trading up 3.5% to a three-week high
Technical perspective: #copper, #gold, #silver are all showing signs of bottoming out with multiple factors adding support (1/5)
home.saxo/content/articl… Apart from a softer dollar providing a general lift following weeks of strength, we are seeing increased speculation that the Chinese government may step up its support for the economy and some signs that demand is holding up

EV sales are soaring and oil use is about to peak

(quoting the article from Bloomberg - don't shoot the messenger...although I have often mentioned the stat on the right that energy bulls don't seem to care about)

Thread of 4
mining.com/web/ev-sales-a… Sales of combustion-engine vehicles peaked six years ago and are now in long-term decline. Oil demand from road transport is also very close to cresting.

5 key charts to watch in global commodity markets this week
1. OIL
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 2. Saudi Aramco likely made net income of just over $32 billion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. That would mark a slowdown from a year earlier — similar to other oil firms that have already reported

'Energy stocks are down this year. But the bullish case is very much alive. Count Canadian energy stocks among this year’s biggest disappointments.'
#COM 1/5
theglobeandmail.com/investing/mark… TD analyst: Energy market is being driven partly by speculative behaviour, as panic-stricken commodity traders react to deteriorating economic activity and the U.S. banking crisis that emerged in March.

I'm still bouncing off the walls from the espresso beans so even tho no one asked - here's my #COM cast picks...open to discussion except for me, because Jennifer Aniston (same name, same crap love life) and of course @nyetjgoldblum = Jeff Goldblum... Hopefully no one is offended by these choices - most of you accounts are anon and FTR I googled attractive celebs...haven't met the majority - just how I see you all via Twitter:

I seriously started a TV script about the #COM - because let’s face it, they (we) are a fascinating bunch. If energy moons, I can’t imagine - the plot lines already seem endless.

I even had some celebs in mind to play the characters, and of course it would be on Fox, not CBC. Because CBC would insist on being sympathetic to eco-terrorists.

Kind of Dallas meets Curb Your Enthusiasm meets The Big Bang Theory.

Some of my Tinder stories for a touch of romance (or horror, not sure).

Important thread re what (probably) lies ahead 1/5

Asian shares were poised to climb Monday after a chaotic week for financial markets ended Friday with a rebound in US regional banksand a rally in risk assets.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Solid jobs data has tempered fears of a US recession, improving sentiment that saw Treasuries fall and Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge, the VIX, snap a four-day surge.

Good explanation for my beef question in this article, looks like prices may head higher - for more than just steak.

More consumer pain to come with govt's plan to reduce fertilizer emissions by 2030.

Thread 1/5
albertafarmexpress.ca/news/few-winne…

https://twitter.com/jenstilmanydots/status/1655035561659486209

“For a feedlot today in Alberta to have the same margins that they had in 2015, they would actually need cattle prices to be 74 per cent higher than they are today”