Tweet

How to get URL link on Twitter App

On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
Click again on or Share Via icon
Click on Copy Link to Tweet
Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
More info at Twitter Help

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

May 8 • 9 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo

Read on Twitter

Scrolly

The next #Bitcoin halving is in less than a year.

My base case: the 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher.

Here's what you need to know... (Thread 👇)

This is Bitcoin's issuance schedule.

The day Bitcoin launched in Jan 2009... there were 0 Bitcoin in existence. Eventually, there will be a hardcapped, absolute maximum of 21M Bitcoin.

Coins are issued with each new block "mined"

This "block subsidy" decreases every 4 years

These moments in time when Bitcoin issuance decreases by 50% are "halvings"

This is written in stone in the Bitcoin protocol and can never be changed.

Here is the relevant bit of code - Bitcoin's entire monetary policy.

Bitcoin has had 3 halvings in its 14-year existence. In 11.5 months, the next halving will arrive.

BTC issued per block will go 6.25 --> 3.125.

Bitcoin's annual supply inflation will drop from ~1.8% to ~0.9%, making it a "harder" asset than gold (1.5-2% annual supply growth).

Currently, 900 BTC are issued every day to Bitcoin miners. At ~$30k/BTC, that's $27m/day, or $900M every month.

This goes into the market to meet incoming demand, which is ~$900M/month right now. Price goes sideways.

But April 2024, the halving will precipitate a supply shock

With not enough new supply to meet demand, price equilibrium can only be restored by:
-Demand suddenly dropping (no reason to happen)
-Supply creation increasing (literally can't happen with Bitcoin)
-Price going up 🚀

Here's the result of the last 3 halvings:

The same mechanics will play out again, once the 840,000th block is added to the #Bitcoin blockchain in April 2024.

It's just supply & demand.

But how high could Bitcoin's price go as a result of the 2024 halving? It's helpful to take stock of past halvings' stats:

Bitcoin has a way of proving everyone's predictions wrong (certainly true with me). However, my rough analysis for 2024-25:

-Bitcoin's price likely peaks 12-18 months after the April 2024 halving
-Price peak could be between $120k and $240k

Not so crazy on the price chart:

@Croesus_BTC

If you want to see the full analysis (100% free), leave a comment with 👍 & I'll DM you the link.

And if you enjoyed this thread:

1. Follow me @Croesus_BTC for more of these
2. RT the tweet below to share this thread with your followers

https://twitter.com/892945654451851265/status/1655566037838962691

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Croesus_BTC

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

May 2

First Republic Bank's collapse - everything you need to know in 8 simple tweets. (A thread.)

#1 - This is the 2nd biggest bank failure in US history.

2023 has seen 3 out of 4 of the biggest bank failures ever... and it's only May.

@stackhodler

#2 - First Republic was the 14th largest bank in the United States.

Like every bank, they've been dealing with:
a) large unrealized losses on underwater long-dated bonds they bought when rates were ~0%, and
b) an exodus of deposits to MMFs

h/t @stackhodler and Bankrate

@samcallah

#3 - In March, a group of the largest US banks (led by JPMorgan) injected $30B of deposits into First Republic.

This halted fears of insolvency... and it bought the bank time.

h/t @samcallah for pointing out FHLB use

Read 10 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Apr 19

Here are the 7 most important charts to understand the United States' fiscal position...

...and why we are heading towards a debt-spiral black hole.

#1 - Here is the annual budget Surplus or Deficit through 2022.

#2 - The problem with deficits is that they add up. Each annual deficit adds to the total National Debt.

This debt hole grows bigger because of annual interest expense on all this debt.

Not a problem when interest rates are ~0%. Big problem when they're 5% per year (now).

#3 - We could reverse this trend if the US Gov could just spend less than it brings in via tax revenue.

But this hasn't happened in 22 years.

There is no political will to balance the budget. That's why these deficits are the norm. Here's 2022:

Read 10 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Apr 11

Here are the 7 most important pieces to understand the seismic shift happening now in global money.

#1 - The US Dollar is losing its status as the world's reserve currency.

China wants the crown - but another challenger has already won. And nobody realizes it yet. #Bitcoin

#2 - In early 2022, the US froze Russia's foreign currency reserves & cut them off from the SWIFT banking system.

This was like dropping a nuke on the monetary world order.

The world as it has been since 1971 is over. Have you noticed everything getting weird?

#3 - The rise of the BRICS nations.

Originally an informal acronym of emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)...

...the group has become a formal coalition of countries sick of taking directions from the post-WW2 world order dominated by the USA.

Read 9 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Apr 6

From the mainstream’s viewpoint, when it comes to money…

#Bitcoin is monetary Bizarro World.

What does this mean, who said what, and is it accurate?

1/ A fun little thread...

2/ In the 1960s, Superman had to deal with another Earth — eerily like ours — but where many details were the opposite of what we call normal.

We’ll let Jerry Seinfeld explain it:

3/ I live in monetary Bizarro World because, in contrast to the conventional viewpoint...

I don’t believe that money should be backed by governments.

Recently, Elizabeth Warren argued the opposite...

Read 14 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Apr 2

@DylanLeClair_

Here are the 7 most important charts in global macro right now.

Together, they hint at what's next as the banking crisis broadens into other segments of the financial landscape.

#1 - the elephant in the room right now is Yield Curve Inversion. h/t @DylanLeClair_

As a reminder, when the banking crisis hit a couple weeks ago, bond yields suddenly dropped.

(The bond market realized that the Fed's tightening game is up - they will have to cut rates this year.)

Rates have peaked. QT is dead, QE is back.

#2 - If you zoom in on the 10y and 2y UST yield inversion, you see that it appears to be closing now, as a result of the last few weeks.

While this seems like good news, every major recession in modern history has begun in earnest once the yield inversion resolves. (aka, soon)

Read 10 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Mar 29

This is the moment you've been waiting for with #Bitcoin

We may never see Bitcoin's price this low again.

A thread on why...

Everyone misses the bottom. The bottom feels like a disaster, so we all freeze up and watch it go by.

Forget about the recent price bottom - it's gone, peak fear has passed.

But THIS is actually the moment you can seize.

Why? The next halving is coming...

What has happened after each past halving (2012, 2016, 2020) is a 12-18 month major bull market.

This is the result of a supply shock upending Bitcoin's supply/demand price equilibrium.

Not as much new supply, just as much demand... Number Go Up.

Read 6 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Share this page!

Enter Twitter Thread URL to Unroll

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @Croesus_BTC

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!