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@RaiderMatt5204 1) As were all. But you know what? if you look closely at his margin of error---which is all any pollster can provide---he was 100% accurate. All we want to hear are Ws and Ls, but pollsters only give you a range, and he is still the most accurate.
@RaiderMatt5204 2) But I'll play. To my knowlege there isn't a single poll out there showing RDS beating Trump for the nomination. They all magically and mysteriously jump to a general, which won't happen.
ALL pollsters have Trump over RDS 20-40, ditto every state except FL and GA.
ALL pollsters have Trump over RDS 20-40, ditto every state except FL and GA.
@RaiderMatt5204 3) And I'll play more: the book "The Great Revolt" by Salena Zito, which no RDSer has even read, interviewed thousands of Trump voters in 2017-18.
They found that a very sizeable group of these (in the neighborhood of 10-15%) had never voted before or hadn't voted in last 3.
They found that a very sizeable group of these (in the neighborhood of 10-15%) had never voted before or hadn't voted in last 3.
@RaiderMatt5204 4) This wasn't just polling: they followed up with a very large sample of interviews (replicated elsewhere in "Bellwether Blues" about Ohio's undervote).
5) They found that this undervote group was not R, was not D. They HATED both parties. Didn't vote McTurd or Minion or W.
5) They found that this undervote group was not R, was not D. They HATED both parties. Didn't vote McTurd or Minion or W.
6) But they love Trump. They came out 2x for him, but him only: note OH Vance race, a MAGA guy, underperformed Trump in 2022; R Johnson, a MAGA guy, underperformed Trump in 2022---but they both won. But non-MAGA (Kelly in WI, Laxalt who backed away, Oz) all lost
7) Baris, Zito, others all found these people will not come out in a midterm & vote for Rs.
They only come out if one man, Trump, is on the ballot.
8) I extrapolated the #s from the 2020 Trump vote. This means he brings out 10-12m who otherwise WILL NOT BE THERE.
They only come out if one man, Trump, is on the ballot.
8) I extrapolated the #s from the 2020 Trump vote. This means he brings out 10-12m who otherwise WILL NOT BE THERE.
9) So where does anyone else make this # up? No one, especially Girdusky, can answer this. It is NOT with "suburbs." First, white working class women and white married women vote Trump, regardless of location. Second, Hispanics and blacks disproportionately vote Trump over RDS.
10) More important, the @1 supporter of abortion and the @1 suburban voters are not WOMEN but white college educated men. So, yeah, RDS will get "some" of them---but nowhere near 10-12m.
11) Lastly, there is no indication whatsover that RDS can appeal to Ds in midwest. Zero.
11) Lastly, there is no indication whatsover that RDS can appeal to Ds in midwest. Zero.
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