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All set up and ready to go with our second @ukonward Future of Conservatism🇬🇧 event here at the @unherd Club!
Speakers about to be mic'd up, guests arriving. Essay question: can the Tories reclaim the realignment & find a path to electoral success? 👀
Speakers about to be mic'd up, guests arriving. Essay question: can the Tories reclaim the realignment & find a path to electoral success? 👀
Full house here at @unherd
@SebastianEPayne kicks off by asking what the results of last week's local elections mean for the Tories' prospects mean for its future...
@SebastianEPayne kicks off by asking what the results of last week's local elections mean for the Tories' prospects mean for its future...
Conservatives are in a mess - people are terrified that "if their grandmother is dying the ambulance won't show up", says @racheljanetwolf.
People are terrified they can't afford a pack of butter - focus groups have changed since this time last year.
People are terrified they can't afford a pack of butter - focus groups have changed since this time last year.
If you think the government is delivering public services poorly and it could do better, of course you will consider voting for another party - the only reason polls are not better for Starmer is that he isn't necessarily trusted to do better...
@EddieHughes4WN MP for Walsall North says sometimes it feels the government is not getting the credit for the cash it has spent.
£3.6bn has been spent on the 200,000 new police - but do the public feel the improvement, given operational independence?
£3.6bn has been spent on the 200,000 new police - but do the public feel the improvement, given operational independence?
The govt is getting none of the credit & all of the blame - but in his constituency they have been maxing out funds govt has made available & ensuring public awareness.
Just because the political class know something, it doesn't mean the public does, says @EddieHughes4WN
Just because the political class know something, it doesn't mean the public does, says @EddieHughes4WN
The overall picture is "dire", says @TomMcTague. The reality is people are poorer than they were.
Pots like levelling up funds for specific towns won't cut through with the wider electorate. The job of govt is to provide basic public services & ensure a strong economy...
Pots like levelling up funds for specific towns won't cut through with the wider electorate. The job of govt is to provide basic public services & ensure a strong economy...
@TomMcTague says the realignment can be overthought. People voted Tory as they bought the message & feared Labour.
The Boris/May coalition was going back to its traditional coalition of voters - wealthy combined with upper working class. Disraeli set the model to follow...
The Boris/May coalition was going back to its traditional coalition of voters - wealthy combined with upper working class. Disraeli set the model to follow...
@TomMcTague asks: "why is the Conservative Party not more dead?" - this is surprising. Starmer & Reeves are not radical politicians.
There is still a possibility of a hung Parliament or Labour not the largest party - underperformance against expectations by #Labour.
There is still a possibility of a hung Parliament or Labour not the largest party - underperformance against expectations by #Labour.
How much true realignment was there post-#Brexit?
@racheljanetwolf says it's unlikely Cameron / Osborne would have assembled the electoral coalition Johnson assembled in 2019. New voters were reached.
@racheljanetwolf says it's unlikely Cameron / Osborne would have assembled the electoral coalition Johnson assembled in 2019. New voters were reached.
"Just about managing" voters moved to the Tories.
The Conservative vote is peeling off but NOT going to Labour, says @racheljanetwolf.
"I don't trust a word Keir Starmer says" comes up regularly in focus groups. There is no enthusiasm for the alternative, but "depressed apathy"
The Conservative vote is peeling off but NOT going to Labour, says @racheljanetwolf.
"I don't trust a word Keir Starmer says" comes up regularly in focus groups. There is no enthusiasm for the alternative, but "depressed apathy"
@racheljanetwolf: There are no big differences in policy terms on public services between the government & Labour.
It's "utterly implausible" that the Tories could assemble a coalition by combining traditional "Surrey" affluent voters with aspirational graduates. Leaning into more working-class voters is the only plausible strategy.
@SebastianEPayne: "Do you think the Conservative coalition has got *too* wide?"
@racheljanetwolf: "No".
@racheljanetwolf: "No".
Why was @EddieHughes4WN able to win? asks @SebastianEPayne
Eddie: "When you've got a new £36m A&E department that does make a big difference locally", defending the Levelling Up Fund.
Eddie: "When you've got a new £36m A&E department that does make a big difference locally", defending the Levelling Up Fund.
"If the government had actually built the 40 hospitals promised in the manifesto I think they'd been in a very different situation", says @racheljanetwolf
@TomMcTague: "The North East of England is as poor as Poland...much of the country is poor by standard European measures of wealth".
No government has tackled that - it isn't just a question of some more development spending, but a "much deeper structural problem".
No government has tackled that - it isn't just a question of some more development spending, but a "much deeper structural problem".
@JamesKanag, in absentia, points out that 45% of the country is in fact in London & the South East.
People have more things in common.
People have more things in common.
There are significant differences of views & values based on age & class. Our narrative is focused on geography instead - that's due to the 1st-past-the-post system.
But what do we *do* for the new voters? We have little to show for the 80 seat majority ~ @racheljanetwolf
But what do we *do* for the new voters? We have little to show for the 80 seat majority ~ @racheljanetwolf
You can't say to voters "There's this 70 year journey - just go with me" - voters have no reason to do that.
A big problem is we have been slow - a lot of promises on levelling up & transport haven't happened. Speed of delivery has been bad ~ @racheljanetwolf
A big problem is we have been slow - a lot of promises on levelling up & transport haven't happened. Speed of delivery has been bad ~ @racheljanetwolf
@SebastianEPayne: millennials are the first generation not to be getting more conservative as they get older. Will targeting older voters only run out of road?
@EddieHughes4WN: housing is one of the biggest problem here. Build out rates in London are half what they are in the Midlands, making people feel very disenfranchised.
There has been a dramatic increase in the average age of a Conservative voter.
There has been a dramatic increase in the average age of a Conservative voter.
@racheljanetwolf: we need to find ways to give younger voters a stake / some assets. Planning reform key for this.
@TomMcTague recently wrote about "Deanos". He's a typical floating voter, the modern equivalent of "Mondeo Man". These are home-owners in Darlington or Bishop Auckland. Not rich or poor.👇
unherd.com/2023/04/the-po…
unherd.com/2023/04/the-po…
Why would you target young graduates rather than younger home owners with families across the country? Asks @TomMcTague.
Focusing only on "Deano's Dad" would be back to a 35% strategy. GP appointments, class sizes - retail policies are needed for "Deano" himself.
Focusing only on "Deano's Dad" would be back to a 35% strategy. GP appointments, class sizes - retail policies are needed for "Deano" himself.
Some research suggests the average Conservative MP has economic views well to the right of the average voter, indicating a need for more economic pragmatism, suggests @SebastianEPayne
Q from the audience: the party has only won majorities in 2 elections since 1997 - 2015 & 2019, both Brexit elections. Does this indicate a longer term problem with the party beyond the European question?
"What is the Brexit of the next election?" Asks @SebastianEPayne.
@EddieHughes4WN: there are the 5 pledges, stabilisation. But these won't be the retail offer: the PM's first King's Speech will be his opportunity to stamp his mark & lay out a headline vision.
@EddieHughes4WN: there are the 5 pledges, stabilisation. But these won't be the retail offer: the PM's first King's Speech will be his opportunity to stamp his mark & lay out a headline vision.
@TomMcTague suggests there is a "losers' premium" for Labour over Brexit. They can tell voters they accept the result but also benefit from rising discontent / "Bregret."
People voted for Boris primarily because of desire to get Brexit done & out of fear of Corbyn, not so much because of Johnson's personality.
But people are moving to Labour because issues like the NHS & economy now matters more than Brexit ~ @racheljanetwolf
But people are moving to Labour because issues like the NHS & economy now matters more than Brexit ~ @racheljanetwolf
Where do the Lib Dems fit into this?
We shouldn't be trying to out-NIMBY the NIMBYs to comper with Lib Dem opposition to housebuilding, says @EddieHughes4WN.
We shouldn't be trying to out-NIMBY the NIMBYs to comper with Lib Dem opposition to housebuilding, says @EddieHughes4WN.
Is there a plausible coalition based on a more "classical" Conservative offer on tax cuts & reduced spending?
@TomMcTague: "Good luck with that".
A solution that doesn't involve more spending on schools, NHS & police won't work.
@TomMcTague: "Good luck with that".
A solution that doesn't involve more spending on schools, NHS & police won't work.
@racheljanetwolf: we have put money into the NHS so it's now closer to its European comparators, but outcomes have got worse.
There is huge amounts of waste & problems with the system. Getting more bang for the taxpayers' buck would be compelling.
There is huge amounts of waste & problems with the system. Getting more bang for the taxpayers' buck would be compelling.
Voters don't believe the £350m a week was ever given to the NHS. Of course in reality it was - and more.
It's too late to finish anything big given the electoral cycle. We need to find concrete things we can say we've started. ~ @racheljanetwolf
It's too late to finish anything big given the electoral cycle. We need to find concrete things we can say we've started. ~ @racheljanetwolf
Thatcher was able to appeal to a moral vision from her own life - of hard work, of being a parent, of running a household. That appealed to people.
People don't have to love the Conservatives but they do have to believe they're aiming for what's best for you. ~@racheljanetwolf
People don't have to love the Conservatives but they do have to believe they're aiming for what's best for you. ~@racheljanetwolf
@TomMcTague: the party has to offer more than management. Policies have to point to what kind of society you're trying to create - "what is the good life?"
"It feels like the Conservative Party doesn't know what it wants to achieve"
If only someone were working on just this..!
"It feels like the Conservative Party doesn't know what it wants to achieve"
If only someone were working on just this..!
And that's a wrap! Another superb event on the Future of Conservatism here at @unherd - we'll be back next month...
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