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This @ChrisO_wiki translation is extremely important for understanding how many more KIA to WIA the Russian Mobiks are taking in Ukraine compared to Western intelligence estimates.
Short form:
Seriously wounded who are not evacuated to advanced medical care mostly die
KIA🧵
1/
Short form:
Seriously wounded who are not evacuated to advanced medical care mostly die
KIA🧵
1/
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1656278085140922368
In war, one in five (20%) of unarmored men die immediately when hit by artillery fragments or small arms fire.
Slightly over one in seven (15%) of seriously wounded died of wounds if they are untreated.
The table below is the US military experience with seriously wounded.
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Slightly over one in seven (15%) of seriously wounded died of wounds if they are untreated.
The table below is the US military experience with seriously wounded.
2/
The "Seriously Wounded" definition changes as medical techniques & technology improved over time.
The germ theory of disease, surgical resection of the intestines plus better logistics for casualty evacuation & providing whole blood are why the bars in Fig. 30 above change.
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The germ theory of disease, surgical resection of the intestines plus better logistics for casualty evacuation & providing whole blood are why the bars in Fig. 30 above change.
3/
If 75% of Russian seriously wounded are dying from lack of systematic casualty evacuation in the first 24 hours.
The ratio of Russian dead (KIA plus died of wounds) to wounded becomes roughly two dead to three wounded...in good weather with medically screened as fit men.
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The ratio of Russian dead (KIA plus died of wounds) to wounded becomes roughly two dead to three wounded...in good weather with medically screened as fit men.
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But the key issue is that it is American combat experience with troops is that were increasingly well screened for medical problems.
Neither the Russians in WW2 nor the current Russian mobiks have been.
This is extraordinarily deadly for the unscreened troops involved.
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Neither the Russians in WW2 nor the current Russian mobiks have been.
This is extraordinarily deadly for the unscreened troops involved.
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The closest data I've found to current Russian casualties comes from the Chief Military Prosecutor AFU Gen. Matios.
The most notable comment by him on the 2014-2015 Donbass war was that the single largest cause of AFU non-combat losses was lethal medical conditions,
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The most notable comment by him on the 2014-2015 Donbass war was that the single largest cause of AFU non-combat losses was lethal medical conditions,
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...resulting from inadequate medical screening of personnel who were being called up during the conscription campaign, that covered men of up to 45 years of age.
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These were the shocking statistics of non-battle casualties of Ukraine's Army during 2014-2015:
AFU Losses in total: ~3,000 "KIA";
AFU Non-Combat Losses: 1,294;
AFU Combat Losses: ~2,000 KIA;
For every five Ukrainian KIA in 2014-2015, there were two non-combat deaths.
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AFU Losses in total: ~3,000 "KIA";
AFU Non-Combat Losses: 1,294;
AFU Combat Losses: ~2,000 KIA;
For every five Ukrainian KIA in 2014-2015, there were two non-combat deaths.
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There were also another ~800 MIA. Whether their bodies were not found or they were murdered POW whose bodies were cremated isn't known.
Freezing & dehydrated late 30(+) alcoholics with coronary heart disease are much more prone to death from either heart attacks
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Freezing & dehydrated late 30(+) alcoholics with coronary heart disease are much more prone to death from either heart attacks
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...or blood loss shock than a fit 18-to-25 year old.
Given that one in 20 wounded in action later die of wounds with good 20th century military medical care, which Russia doesn't have in Ukraine, the Russian Mobiks death rates are unprecedented in American military
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Given that one in 20 wounded in action later die of wounds with good 20th century military medical care, which Russia doesn't have in Ukraine, the Russian Mobiks death rates are unprecedented in American military
10/
...medical experience.
Ukrainian border guards, who are now fighting near Bakhmut, say that for three days in a row they watched how "the russians do not abandon their own"
"The wounded orc lay 100-150 meters from the russian positions and asked, shouted to be evacuated
11/
Ukrainian border guards, who are now fighting near Bakhmut, say that for three days in a row they watched how "the russians do not abandon their own"
"The wounded orc lay 100-150 meters from the russian positions and asked, shouted to be evacuated
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The invaders left him to die.…"
There are hard logistical reasons for this.
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There are hard logistical reasons for this.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1653403642051821568
The photo below is the Russian Army & Wagner's chief casualty evacuation vehicle in Bakhmut.
The Russians call that thing a "leading edge conveyor." It is used to pull forward ammo for assault groups and move back wounded because
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The Russians call that thing a "leading edge conveyor." It is used to pull forward ammo for assault groups and move back wounded because
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...cars are not survivable near trenches.
It is a direct cultural replacement for a Imperial Russian horse drawn cart for the seriously wounded, and they have found it unacceptable.
You have doubtless seen a lot of videos of this thing receiving Ukrainian drone grenades.
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It is a direct cultural replacement for a Imperial Russian horse drawn cart for the seriously wounded, and they have found it unacceptable.
You have doubtless seen a lot of videos of this thing receiving Ukrainian drone grenades.
14/
Given that it carries ammo forward, Ukraine has no choice killing them.
The Russians are leaving the seriously wounded to die because of its service failures, and are now looking to produce vehicles from the 1960's and 1950's as a replacement (Link).
15/
topwar.ru/215842-armii-n…
The Russians are leaving the seriously wounded to die because of its service failures, and are now looking to produce vehicles from the 1960's and 1950's as a replacement (Link).
15/
topwar.ru/215842-armii-n…
The unwillingness of Western and particularly American three letter national security agencies to consider that their underlying data may not represent Russian casualty rates is of a piece with their inability to look at pre-war Russian logistics.
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Both are cases of "intelligence projection."
That is, seeing your intelligence target as yourself.
And since your political superiors have see this data for decades, no one is going to challenge the orthodoxy.
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That is, seeing your intelligence target as yourself.
And since your political superiors have see this data for decades, no one is going to challenge the orthodoxy.
17/
For careerist reasons, maintaining groupthink and pluralistic ignorance matter, reality does not.
Being wrong as an intelligence analyst just like everyone else means you do not get fired, because they can't fire everyone.🤷♂️
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Being wrong as an intelligence analyst just like everyone else means you do not get fired, because they can't fire everyone.🤷♂️
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I mean, not noticing Russian forklifts were almost non-existent for 80 years?
And that the biggest Warsaw Pact forklift producer in Soviet times was... the Bulgarian company "Bankancar?"
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And that the biggest Warsaw Pact forklift producer in Soviet times was... the Bulgarian company "Bankancar?"
19/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1642983621521702914
That's some serious multi-generation intelligence groupthink...and no one has been fired.🤦♂️
Just like no one will be fired when we find out Russian deaths in the current war have been much much higher than wartime intelligence product.
20/20 End.
Just like no one will be fired when we find out Russian deaths in the current war have been much much higher than wartime intelligence product.
20/20 End.
P.S. H/T @secretsqrl123 for the Russian casualty evacuation link.
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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