John Reade Profile picture
May 11 7 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
We published a new primer on #gold last week at the same time as #golddemandtrends

"Gold Market Size and Structure"

gold.org/goldhub/resear… Image
I'll tweet out some of the highlights from the report for those too lazy to download it.

Above: total stock of #gold above ground is about 209,000t.

Below, the value of this stock. Image
Note that there are substantial quantities of OTC #gold derivative positions that are not included in this total as this information is not readily or reliably available.
I find this graphic to be very useful when setting the scene about #gold demand.

It demonstrates the diversity of demand and shows the relative strength of the categories (10-year averages). Image
And this grpahic shows the diversity of supply.

(not the bubbles are only approximately scaled - we couldn't get Europe into any sensible sized bubble as it's production is so tiny). Image
Finally, #gold's proportion of Global Central Bank reserves is shown on this graphic. Image
Our #gold primers are a growing source of background information on the gold market and can be accessed on Goldhub here:

gold.org/goldhub/resear…

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More from @JReade_WGC

Nov 16, 2022
Another question, this time from people who have followed / traded gold for some years:

"Why isn't gold lower, considering the strength in the dollar and moves in real rates?"
A version of this chart even made it into the FT recently, with the "TIPS implied gold price" from Macquarie.

(Full article here, probably paywalled).

ft.com/content/21d20c…
We've (obviously) noticed the divergence between #gold and the TIPS yield as its been going on for a while.
I beleive that this relationship, which has worked very well since the run-up to the GFC may have fundamentally changed...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11, 2022
Spot #gold is trading aroundv$1827/oz with a $0.30/oz bid-ask spread on Friday morning in London.

Although it bounced after stronger US inflation data, it couldn't hold those gains as yields firmed late in the day.

But lets look at a slightly longer term perspective...
Since the start of the year, #gold is essentially flat...
...yet 10-year treasury yields are about 65bp higher (less negative)
Read 12 tweets
Aug 9, 2021
I've been looking a bit more at the move in #gold in Asia on Monday morning.

Between 23:30 and 23:45 BST 17,538 contracts traded on Comex, low was $1677.90.

Between 23:45 to Midnight a further 7,825 contracts traded and 5,705 in the 15 minutes that followed.
What triggered the initial move lower in #gold?

It's hard to be sure but the dollar did open a little firmer than Friday's close.
Could the sell-off have been a 'fat finger' or something malicious? Either are possible.

But its also possible that #gold slipped lower as the dollar firmed, triggering stop-loss selling, which caused gold to slip lower, triggering more stops until the selling was exhaused.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 27, 2020
All-time highs for #gold – a thread

Gold hit a new all-time high this morning, posting $1944.71/oz during late Asian trading and is currently near that level.
There has been a LOT of coverage of the all-time-high on social media – who knew there were so many #gold experts?😃😃
It’s great timing as far as we are concerned, as it means that #gold is getting a lot of attention ahead of the launch of our Q2-2020 / H1-2020 #GoldDemandTrends release, which will come out on Thursday.
What can we say about #gold at the moment? Obviously I am not going to front run the release of GDT, but we can repeat themes we’ve been making for some time.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 10, 2020
Gold at $1800/oz: a short thread.

Gold is trading just above $1800/oz after hitting a fresh 8-year high this week. Not much appears to stand in the way of #gold challenging the all-time high of $1921/oz set in September 2011.
The best financial market-related explainer of the move in #gold is ever-falling real US yields and this relationship remains extremely important.

As concerns about the impact of the Coronvirus intensify, real rates have headed every lower, helping gold.
(Although interestingly the correlation of real rates and #gold has weakened sharply over the past month as this chart shows)
Read 10 tweets
May 27, 2020
What a ride it has been for GCM0, the June-expiry Comex #gold contract.

One month ago it was trading at a $15/oz premium to the spot gold price.

Now it's trading at a $10/oz discount.

(short thread)
I’ve had a few questions this morning about

“why is the Comex future trading at a discount to spot”

The short answer is that we are nearing first notice for Jun, so specs and investors are selling Jun and buying August.

This is pushing the Jun lower, hence the discount.
This screenshot of the contract table shows that much of the aggregate open interest has been rolled into August, but there is still nearly 100k lots left (as of 26 May).
Read 11 tweets

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