Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #gold

Most recents (24)

FED policy week turned out disastrous despite delivering to expectation of 75 bps hike with guidance of another 100-150 points lift before end of 2022!

Then, why post-policy risk-off? Shift to rate cut cycle not an option in 2023-2024 (Fund rate >4%) to fight recession?…1/N
Equities of developed & emerging markets collapsed! S&P500 down at target at 3650 (low 3647) from mid-August high 4325 for >15% collapse at set focus zone 3650-4350!

US1-2Y yield curve at 4-4.25% and 10Y yield spike at 3.65-3.85% is tell-tale of medium term rate outlook…2/N
Taking signs of extreme recession in 2023, #Brent Crude got pushed down to lower end of $85-100 and so is #Gold into extended weakness below $1685 with pull bias into $1565-1635!

What to expect when dynamics into extended phase of high interest rates & negative growth?…3/N
Read 14 tweets
Cycle Bottom rule of thumbs:

A) Do we have multiple asymmetric trades across this new theme?

B) Can we assess the catalysts for the bottoming process over the next 3 to 9 months?

C) Are the bottoming valuations supportive of 10x returns over the next 60 months?

#goldstocks
The sort of 20 year plus #goldstock graph that excites us, all positive expectations beaten out and a return to 15-20 year lows, down 90-95%, peaks correlating to #gold sector peaks. This becomes interesting 🤔 in the next 20-30% downside.
Couple this with fundamentals of material ozs in the ground, in accessible locations, a reasonable cash stack. Bonus' are a great low capex NPV with high IRR.

#goldstocks the round trip is incoming, a 15-20 year bottoming is not far out on the horizon.

#gold
Read 3 tweets
#xauusd #gold emeğe saygılı 70 dostuma teşekkür ediyorum.geçtiğimiz senelerde eurusd analizlerini takipçi duyarsızlığı kaynaklı bırakmıştım, ons analizlerinide seyrekleştirdiğimi buradan duyurmuş olayım..
Şimdi gelelim grafikte anlatılmak istenenler ve olasılıklara+
2020 yılı Ağustos ayında 2080den başlayıp 1680lere düşen dalga w dalgası ise
1680den başlayıp 2022 mart ayında 2070lere kdr yükselen X dalgası ise
İçinde bulunduğumuz dalga Flat kalıbın Y dalgası olmak durumundadır ve son dalga kendi içinde 5li kalıp içinde ilerlemesi beklenir.+
(Hatırlarsanız 1800 lerde iken olasılık1 şeklinde işaretlediğim kalıp 1680 lerin görülmesi sonrasında 1800 e lere pullback ve akabinden tekrar 1680 testi olarak gerçekleşti.çünkü o bir alt dalganın 4.dalgası idi ve düşüş gelmesi gerekiyordu)+
Read 9 tweets
$GMTN heading towards negative EV

1m oz resource at high grade with positive drilling results

65koz low capex production ramp up, NPV 10x cap and expanding

Optimization issues on start up

Accummulation zone incoming 8-18c, below <12c 10x return potential

#goldstocks
It's starting to tick the boxes
A) negative EV
B) free pounds in the ground
C) low capex ramp up
D) nice grade
E) 10x plus NPV upside
F) hated by the market
G) optimization could kick in 3-6 months time
H) cycle bottoming incoming over 4-9 months
I) low dilution risk Vs M&A
Please note any new bottoming theme over the next 3 to 9 months, one should have 5 candidates to mitigate stock specific risk.

If our #gold watchlist falls by 50% from here as the bottoming process kicks in, the average return will likely be 10-15x over the following 3-5 years.
Read 7 tweets
There were some revelations recently about various powerful state actors manipulating the #gold market.

The way this works is the creation of "paper gold", i.e. unbacked pieces of paper (or, realistically, entries in a database) that dealers will sell to unwitting savers.
"In the 80s, certain US policymakers figured out how to disable gold as a warning metric - ... by the unrelenting creation of paper gold obligations"
I think the way this works is that, in a market with both physical and paper versions of a commodity, it's possible for some powerful central actor to sell far more paper claims to a commodity than is backing it

This makes a market maker for the paper product massively short ...
Read 9 tweets
1/ US Dollar is still king. 👑
Whole market currently at the mercy of the king.

DXY in parabolic uptrend. Once it breakes, #Bitcoin, #Gold and risk assets will rally, but it could squezze to 120 first for max pain.

The FED might just go for it.
2/ In the short term DXY might dip to range low at around 107 before going higher. But not even sure if we get so low, next couple of days will clear it.

As long as we are above 104, it remains a trader market.

Be patient if you are looking for longterm entries.
3/ US Yields have been ripping higher. As long as yields keep going up, all other asset classes will have a hard time.

US30Y sub 3% will be key, next resistance at 4%. If it goes higher, get ready for a lot of pain and stress in the financial system.

Wait for a clear reversal.
Read 11 tweets
Last weekend, I covered why the energy crisis is driving an accelerating #silver supply-demand imbalance. Now, let’s take a shot at the WHEN question by taking a quick look at charts from the bears of the past, with the idea they may be prologue.
Note: I do NOT think I can time this with any precision. If my flip to bullishness in late August was the bottom, luck will have played a big factor. I have zero qualifications. I just like commodity markets. To the charts! 👇
Let’s start with the DotCom Bust.

#Gold found its bottom in Feb of 01, silver in Nov of 01, and the SP500 in Oct of 02. Image
Read 12 tweets
1/ Thread 🧵
If you think that we are entering hyperinflation then I'm sorry that is not what I'm seeing (at least not immediately).
In history of fiat currency, we will have another 3 phases after this high inflation of cost of living & shortage before hyperinflation:
2/
1st Phase: Short Deflation Period
Costs of many things rising (especially cost of living, food and energy). This leads to weak demand, closing down business & industries. This results in short deflationary era period where people go "survival mode" or "rationing mode".
3/
2nd Phase: Crumbling of Fiat Currency
After deflationary era, the king of fiat in that period (currently USD) will suffer from implosion of excessive "money" printing in the past that has created artificial (bubble) growth on every country that use fiat as their money.
...
Read 15 tweets
Slides used with @PeterMcCormack @WhatBitcoinDid.
Hope you enjoy the podcast/youtube!
🧵👇 Image
Spiral based on Halvings/blocks. #Bitcoin Image
Time based Spiral, 4 year cycle. #Bitcoin Image
Read 22 tweets
1/ Snowline Gold $SGD $SGD.V a short thread. I spent sometime this Labour day weekend going through SGD's Valley deposit & attempting to understand what the potential may be. I didn’t consider Gracie or any of their other prospects. Just Valley. #Mintwit #Gold #Exploration
2/ Full Disclaimer: I am a shareholder & have been since the fall of 2021. I recently bought more shares in the high $2’s & as high as $3.50. If I hadn’t been a shareholder previously I would be now. I truly believe SGD is on to something Tier 1.
3/ I hope these posts open your eyes to the potential I see and if not at least open the floor to constructive discussion. I really enjoy doing this type of work and would love to do it full time (If you know anybody let me know!)
Read 18 tweets
1/ This is the most important thread you will read in this bear market. #BTC #XAU #USD #EUR

Are you prepared to preserve & protect your wealth?

This is critical in the next ~12 months.

Ready? Let's dive in. 👇
2/ Here's the macro picture.

Winter is coming, really!

With Russia cutting all gas to Europe, survival mode is about to kick off.

Hard decisions will need to be taken. 👇
3/ Many Europeans will have to choose between food, electricity or heating. This winter!

Which one would you choose?

If you think this will be limited to Europe, I have a surprise for you. 👇
Read 14 tweets
1/ Thread
Here is what has happened and what will happen regarding to USD and inflation.

Regardless of manipulation by Banksters, I observe #gold behaves like predictor of future inflation (leading indicator for 1-2 year). Here is an example:
2/
In 2018 gold rise from $1200 to $2070 in 2020, but all other prices including food and energy are stable. Next we have prolonged consolidation of gold after mid 2020 and slight deflation. Based on my hypothesis, this means we are seeing deflationary in overall price. But..
3/
...don't get me wrong, there are some that will be sharply rising because this is an artificial deflation. The Banksters made illusion that we are in deflationary era by shorting/smashing all commodity futures at the same time. The consequences of this manipulation are:
Read 11 tweets
தங்கள் கேள்விகள், விமர்சனங்கள், வன்மங்கள் வரவேற்கப்படுகிறது..

secret.cooo.me/52fa702cb
அத அப்ப சொல்றேன்..

காத்துவாக்குல ரெண்டு காதல் Image
Read 11 tweets
THREAD

1/10 🧵

As you know, Michael Burry recently sold 98% of his #investment portfolio. Remember that in 2008 he predicted the #collapse of the financial #markets. As always, he cites facts based on fundamental analytics. Will there be a big #crash?
2/10 🧵

1⃣ Elon Musk sold 75% of $BTC;
2⃣ Ray Dalio had taken a short for $10B;
3⃣ Ambiguous movement on the $MSTR #btc wallet and the subsequent resignation of Saylor from the post of CEO;
4⃣ Sales of #MTGox are scheduled for the end of this month.

And much more.
3/10 🧵

#Bitcoin has become a clone of the S&P 500 Index, and all #altcoins follow $BTC, so it is essential to understand what is happening in the global #economy.
Read 10 tweets
💥The Amazing #Ancient Persian Gold and Silver Oxus Treasure👑👀💥

(A thread 1/6)👇

An incredible treasure discovered near the Oxus River is one of the most precious collections of ancient #Persian artifacts known to us today.

#FindsFriday #History #art
Around 180 pieces of #jewelry, metalwork and statuettes, and about 200 coins have survived, but the original cache was much bigger. Comprised of stunning #gold and #silver artifacts, the #treasure is an impressive example of ancient #wealth. (2/6)

#FindsFriday #art #Archaeology
The Oxus #Treasure was discovered about 1877-1880. The exact place and date of the find remains a mystery. Kobadiyan has been suggested as most likely place. (3/6)

#FindsFriday #History #Art

Gold & Silver statuettes of bearded men (British Museum)
Read 6 tweets
I said I'd start doing this, and I'm still only on twitter and reddit, so here is as good of place as any

Just finished a rebalance exercise so it's a good time to add it all up

Current approximate allocation in my portfolios (including my self managed 401k):
#Silver (PSLV + Physical) 16.4%
#Platinum (PPLT + Physical) 14.5%
$LTPZ 14.4%
$SILJ 13.9%
$PICK 8.5%
$URNM 8.1%
$USO 6.9%
$GDXJ 4.7%
$CENX Jan Calls 2.4%
$SII Feb Calls 1.8%
$ANGPY 1.4%
$IMPUY 1.4%
$PLG 1.4%
$RJZ 1.4%
$LAND 1.4%
#Gold (PHYS + Physical) 0.7%
Cash/Other 0.8%
Since the beginning of the year I've been expanding into many commodities and inflation plays and have been periodically rebalancing my weights based on market moves

This is probably a bit more diversified than some may have thought, also why I thought I should start sharing
Read 4 tweets
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
War is inflationary

....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...

Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
the low inflation world stood on three pillars:
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
Read 18 tweets
Thread on Paul Volcker fighting 70s #inflation and what can we learn from it today.

Government money printing was out of control in the 60s & 70s so as the US was printing their way through elections, foreign investors started dumping dollars and wanted their #gold
Then when #inflation took off after @WTF_1971 money supply 🚀 increased 100% from 1970-1980

As we went off gold standard and onto the #GreatFiatPonziScheme Paul Volcker knew that raising rates wasn’t enough to fight inflation the money supply had to decline.
Towards the end of the 70s since #inflation was on going for the decade the government finally decided to reduce the deficit realizing that was the cause of the #inflation & along with higher rates finally had #inflation come down
Read 5 tweets
2/ The moon was just as meaningful as the sun to Ancient Egyptians. Thoth and Khonsu were both lunar deities. Khonsu was the eternally youthful god reborn monthly through lunar cycle. This statue from Karnak Temple depicts Tutankhamun as Khonsu. #Eygpt #Mythology #Archaeology Image
3/ Thoth, god of Wisdon & writing was also a lunar god. His sacred animals were the Ibis & Baboon ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
“As we continue our regional travel, we look forward to additional engagement with our partner nations to advance a free and flourishing Indo-Pacific,” says statement from ⁦@SpeakerPelosi⁩. speaker.gov/newsroom/8122
Read 37 tweets
🧵

why I think the greatest crypto bull run ever is upon us..

x / x
first of all..

I've already dropped most of the charts I'm gonna post here..

anyway i think a 🧵 is the best way to show my bias..

let's goo..

2 / x
the last week's were tough, for sure..

anyway.. nobody ever got rich for buying the top.. so it's always about buying low selling hiy.. isn't it..

$eth dropped ~82% and most $alts are down 95% +.. so basically there's / was blood in the streets..

3 / x
Read 22 tweets
1) Sanket Mahadev Sargar - 🥈

Silver in weightlifting in Men's 55kg category
😍🇮🇳🥈

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Silver #SanketMahadevSargar ImageImageImage
2) Gururaja Poojary -🥉

Bronze in weightlifting Men's 61kg category
😍🇮🇳🥉

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Bronze #GururajaPoojary ImageImageImage
3) Saikhom Mirabai Chanu - 🥇🔥

GOLD in weightlifting Women's 49kg category
😍🇮🇳🥇

#CWG2022India #CWG2022
#weightlifting #Gold
#MirabaiChanu ImageImageImage
Read 63 tweets
The Panic of 1873: Your money is not money anymore (USA edition)

A Thread 🧵

Also, #bitcoin
The Panic of 1873 was a financial crisis that triggered an economic depression in Europe and North America that lasted from 1873 to 1877 or 1879 in France and in Britain.
The Panic of 1873 and the subsequent depression had several underlying causes for which economic historians debate the relative importance. American inflation, rampant speculative investments (overwhelmingly in railroads), the demonetization of silver in Germany
Read 24 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets

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