Thread by @monsterbitar

I've seen a lot of people think that #BitcoinCash $BCH should go up in value now that #Bitcoin $BTC is wrestling with scalability issues.

In this thread, I'll try to tame your expectations a bit, and keep us all a little more grounded:

1/ Back in 2015, #Bitcoin was viewed as a panacea to a lot of different problems. Each of these problems have different value and the users back then seems to mostly be broad in their interpretations and views.

To make this more tangible, lets consider some (incomplete) examples

2/ It was widely believed that #Bitcoin would replace gold and fiat as a store of value, become a dominant type of means of exchange, would enable commerce and financial interactions digitally that was previously not possible and once stable would also be our unit of account.

3/ If I were to set random percentages to the usecases people found valueable at the time, I might set numbers like 40% money, 30% store of value, 20% tech and 10% social shared expectations.

These numbers are not correct, as they varied from one group of people to another.

4/ Leading up to the first blocksize "war" in 2017, some of these users were underserved and the promise they believed in for years had not materialied.

This was particulary relevant for #BitcoinCash, where wallets were losing advantages as banking infrastructure made progress.

5/ During the blocksize war, and the year or so after, users slowly consolidated in social structures that best fit their viewpoints and the percentage numbers I gave as reference earlier changed quite significantly.

Today, for #Bitcoin I would guess at that..

6/ current state is more like 25% cash, 55% store of value, 15% tech and 5% social shared expectations.

I could be wrong here, but my understanding is that those who cared about the cash usecase mostly moved on to other chains where they were better served.

Meanwhile..

7/ the #Bitcoin $BTC chain has served the speculative store of value use case fairly well, and expectations that it will continue to do so are high.

It's not quite at an all time high yet, but we might very well see that within a year from now.

8/ So how does this relate to the current scaling issues?

Not only is the people involved today less sensitive to the issue (it doesn't impact speculative activity much), but there is also many more chains that promise to do good on the cash usecase.

9/ In the end the path forward remains a matter of building successful products and services that makes peoples lives better, if you want #BitcoinCash $BCH to deliver on the cash promise.

Waiting for #Bitcoin $BTC to fail will both take longer and matter less than many expects.