I've scored columnists' predictions for the outcome of the 2017 snap election made by the @guardian's very own #MysticMegs (written just after May announced it) - Zoe Williams, Matthew d'Ancona, Martin Kettle, Sonia Sodha, Simon Jenkins, Ruth Wishart, & Gaby Hinsliff.
Pretty much everyone on earth had decided this was definitely going to be a humiliating defeat for Corbyn's @UKLabour, with many pundits confidently predicting massive losses - including 'political Brexpert', Matt Goodwin. 🤣
It resulted in an unexpected hung parliament.
From 20 points behind in the polls, Corbyn won 40% of the vote, the largest increase in vote share by a Labour leader since Clem Attlee in 1945, winning 30 more seats than Ed Miliband in 2015, including seats like Canterbury & Plymouth that for years had been Labour no-go areas.
Zoe Williams:
'Scoring points off May’s government is both too easy – they are barely holding it together by any normal governmental standards – and too hard; the levers by which they are held to account aren’t working, & attacks do nothing to douse their impunity!'
3/10
Matthew d’Ancona:
'Labour’s position in the polls is historically dire. A snap election resulting, May hopes, in a stronger Tory Govt & an unambiguous personal mandate is self-evidently the smart option. I never thought that I would feel sorry for Corbyn, but today I do.'
1/10
Martin Kettle:
'May has trashed her own brand. Labour’s position is crucial. But since Jeremy Corbyn put his party on election footing last September he will be hard put to oppose it, whatever the damage the election does to Labour.'
3/10
Sonia Sodha:
'May has faced little real opposition from a Labour party that’s been languishing in the polls. The only grim question facing Labour is how many seats will it lose? And where will that leave Corbyn? Will he resign, or choose to cling on against the odds?'
0/10
Simon Jenkins:
'With a poll lead hovering round 20%, an election is more than appealing. It would seem reckless to reject it. An election under Jeremy Corbyn is certain to be painful. But by autumn its sad flirtation with the archaic left should be over.'
0/10
Ruth Wishart:
'The prospect of another general election will hardly be greeted with enthusiasm by the Scottish Labour party. There are real tensions between its leader, Kezia Dugdale, and Jeremy Corbyn, whom she didn’t support in the leadership election.'
3/10
Gaby Hinsliff:
'It's a mark of how far Labour has fallen that the LibDems’ press operation is sharper. The worse Labour performs, the more Farron’s message that the best Remainers can hope for is a reduced Tory majority with his party holding them in check will resonate.'
1/10
So next time you encounter any @guardian columnists (or ANYONE paid a fortune to speculate in a highly partisan manner corresponding to the political leaning of their employer) predicting the outcome of a #GE, take their OPINIONS with a HUGE pinch of salt! theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A few thoughts on Bob Vylan leading the #GlastonburyFestival crowd in chants of "Death to the IDF" (Israeli Defence Force), livestreamed by the @BBC, and the mischaracterisation of the chant by some MPs, news media, and activists.
In England, where #GlastonburyFestival is located, all of us have the right to freely express our criticism of anyone or anything - as long as there is no intent to provoke immediate unlawful violence or there is a reasonable likelihood it will occur as a consequence.
In England, free speech is protected under Article 10 of the Human Rights Act 1998. However, inciting violence is a criminal offence under several laws which attempt to balance public safety with free expression rights.
In many countries, especially since Musk bought Twitter/@X, underregulated online extreme content has been used to groom and radicalise vulnerable people.
Too many cowardly politicians are scared to speak up for fear of being branded 'anti-free speech'.
Some MPs who have been in parliament for many years NEVER appear on any of the @BBC's "flagship" politics shows - but Reform's privately educated shit-stirring 'anti-elite' former Tory Sarah Pochin - an MP for FIVE WEEKS - gets her own special introduction on #PoliticsLive.
Politicians using dangerously irresponsible anti-Muslim rhetoric know their comments are normalising Islamophobia and endanger British Muslim women. Islamophobic incidents rose by 375% in the week after Boris Johnson called veiled Muslim women “letterboxes” in 2018.
#PolitcsLive
Britain prides itself in NOT being the sort of country that tells women how to dress. States that do dictate women’s clothing (eg Iran, Sudan, Saudi Arabia) are vilified as misogynistic & ultra-controlling: the antithesis of the enlightened, liberal west. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
The 'Women's Safety Initiative' is an anti-migrant AstroTurf disinformation group founded by Jess Gill, a Fellow of the Koch-funded climate change denial group, the Foundation for Economic Education, & an apprentice at the Mises Institute. The '1 in 4' claim is a lie.
Before I outline the evidence that (despite what we are told every day by politicians, activists, and news media) there is no discernable link between either legal or illegal immigration and increased crime rates in OECD countries, including ours, some context about Jess Gill.
Jess Gill’s involvement with these radical free-market climate change denying Koch foundation funded organisations is deeply concerning.
The WSI exploits young women to make misleading claims about supposed links between immigration with women’s safety.
"Foreigners" DO NOT claim £1BILLION/month in benefits.
This disgusting anti-migrant dogwhistle by shameless liar and former Head of Policy Exchange, Neil O'Brien MP, is just one of several recent dispicable divisive Telegraph front page lies.
WTAF @IpsoNews? @HoCStandards?
The claims that the UK spends £1bn/month "on UC benefits for overseas nationals" (O'Brien) and "Foreigners claim £1bn a month in benefits" (Telegraph) are revealed to be lies in the article: the£1bn relates to "Benefits claims by HOUSEHOLDS with AT LEAST ONE FOREIGN NATIONAL."
The Telegraph claims that (unnamed) "experts suggested the increase reflected a SURGE in the number of asylum seekers being granted refugee status and in net migration."
To evaluate/make sense of this sensational unsourced claim, additional context is needed (but not provided).
Chase Herro, co-founder of Trump’s main crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, on crypto:
“You can literally sell shit in a can, wrapped in piss, covered in human skin, for a billion dollars if the story’s right, because people will buy it.”
Despite crypto being bullshit, & memecoins being consciously bullshit, many – especially angry young gullible men – still invest: 42% of men & 17% of women aged 18-29 have invested in, traded or used crypto (2024 Pew Research), compared to only 11% of men & 5% of women over 50.
“It’s no accident that memecoins are such a phenomenon among young people who have grown immensely frustrated with a financial system that, I think it’s fair to say, has failed them” - Sander Lutz, the first crypto-focused White House correspondent.