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Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
@emilkastehelmi
May 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they're attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/ Image
At the same time, both Russian and Ukrainian channels are reporting intensifying Ukrainian actions in multiple directions. Russian defence ministry says that the "general situation" is under control, which means that local situations might not be under control at all. 2/
Russian MoD also speaks of AFU actions in the direction of Maloilyinovka. Maloilyinovka is located in the northern part of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian gains might be greater than we know at the moment, and there is a possibility of counterattacks also inside the city of Bakhmut. 3/
I suspect that these are diversionary attacks with both political and military goalsl. If Russia sends reserves to Bakhmut, they might decisively weaken other sectors. If they don't, there's a possibility of significant political humiliation. Both options are good for Ukraine. 4/
Our team is updating our interactive map continuously. Eyes will be non-stop on the situation, and I will be posting about the development as soon as there is more relevant information. 5/5

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Apr 23
Hersonin tilannekatsaus 🪖

Useat mediat ovat kertoneet Ukrainan ylittäneen Dnipron ja saavuttaneet joen toisen puolen. Asia on kuitenkin vähemmän dramaattinen kuin uutisoinnista voisi päätellä. Ukrainalaisjoukkoja on mennyt joen yli, mutta mitään sillanpääasemaa ei ole. 1/🧵 Image
Viimeisimpien videotodisteiden mukaan Venäjä on iskenyt seuraaviin kohteisiin Hersonin alueella (punaiset ympyrät). Videoilla ei näy suuria joukkokeskittymiä eikä edes erityisen suurta epäsuoran tulen käyttöä, vaan muutamia iskemiä. Todisteet laajemmasta ylimenosta puuttuvat. 2/ Image
Venäjän ja Ukrainan joukot operoivat Dnipron jokisuistossa jatkuvasti. Kyseessä on tiedusteluryhmien ja erikoisjoukkojen toimintaa, jossa ei lähtökohtaisesti pyritä varsinaiseen alueiden haltuunottoon. Tämä ei ole uutta, sitä on tapahtunut viime vuoden lopulta lähtien. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Apr 21
Heavy fighting on the northern side of Bakhmut. In the Khromove road area, despite constant attacks and shelling, Russians have not made any significant progress for weeks.

Our #OSINT team acquired some satellite images which will explain why the attack has mostly halted. 1/🧵 Image
The main reason for the static situation are the extensive fortifications dug by the Ukrainians. They were well prepared to defend against the Russians, and they have held their positions even under the most difficult conditions, even longer than I initially expected. 2/ Image
The general situation in the area looks like this. There can be some slight errors, as some areas are constantly changing hands. Russians are pushing from all sides, and Ukraine is conducting small-scale counterattacks inside the city and the surrounding areas. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Mar 28
Especially 🇩🇪 & 🇺🇸 argued that providing main battle tanks to Ukraine would "escalate the war".

It is disturbing how detached from reality this security analysis was. Russian propaganda and threats practically kept the western tanks out of Ukraine for months. 1/
After the first months it was clear that Russia did not have the capability to seriously escalate the war against western countries, no matter how heavily they would support Ukraine with equipment. Especially a conventional attack could be ruled out. 2/
Despite this, avoiding "escalation" became the main reason why certain weapon systems couldn't be delivered to Ukraine.

Too advanced rocket launchers or anti-air systems would escalate. Infantry fighting vehicles and MBTs would escalate. Fighter jets would escalate. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Mar 18
A new encirclement theat may be rising in Donetsk oblast.

Russians have recently started making gains in the Avdiivka sector, about 50 km south of Bakhmut. The area has been relatively stable for months, but now the situation is becoming more difficult for the Ukrainians. 1/ 🧵
Avdiivka has been on the frontline for years, as fighting in the direction began already in 2014. The enemy was stopped then, and they have been stopped again and again during 2022. Despite heavy fighting, the Russians were unable to make significant progress for a long time. 2/
Months of fighting against constant Russian pressure have caused some cracks in the Ukrainian defense. In the northern side of Avdiivka, Ukraine lost Krasnohorivka and also likely Vesele. In the south, Russians are now attacking Sieverne. The gap is about 11 km wide. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Mar 8
Venäläissotilaat teloittavat aseettomia ihmisiä ja harjoittavat runsaasti sotarikoksia, koska Venäjän asevoimat on moraalisesti mätä organisaatio.

Seuraa lanka rakenteellisista ongelmista. Esimerkkinä tapaus, jossa venäläiset tyhjensivät lippaansa ukrainalaiseen sotavankiin.🧵1/
Venäläisten voimankäyttö on videossa täysin ylimitoitettua. Jos tavoitteena on yksinkertaisesti tappaa ihminen, siihen ei tarvita sarjatulta monesta aseesta. Tämä viittaa siihen, että puolustuskyvyttömän sotavangin ampuminen on venäläisille ensisijaisesti huvia. 2/
Tapahtuma ei ole heille tragedia, jonka yksittäinen sotilas joutuu pakon edessä toteuttamaan. Aseettoman ukrainalaisen ampuminen on toimintaa, johon moni kuvaustilanteessa ollut venäläinen nimenomaan tahtoo osallistua täysillä. Ampuminen jatkuu useita sekunteja. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Feb 11
The Battle of Bakhmut - The current situation 🪖

On the northern side of the city, Russians have taken the village of Krasna Hora. The fighting has moved to Paraskoviivka. The extent on Russian advance over the northern highway is unclear. #OSINT 1/
At the same time, Russians are pushing straight into Bakhmut from the east. It seems the Ukrainians have managed to slow the Russians down there, and even some small-scale counterattacks have been observed. Ukrainians are fighting for each and every block. 2/
On the southern side of the city, the bridge crossing the canal on the Kostyantinivka - Bakhmut road has been destroyed. It is not quite clear who destroyed it. As @J_JHelin says, this is another challenge for possible Ukrainian counterattacks. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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