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Jonathan Portes Profile picture
@jdportes
May 12 • 4 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
As @M_Sumption said on #r4today just now, wait for the actual numbers rather than paying any attention to the CPS's wild guesses here.

We at @UKandEU and @MigObs will be analysing the data & holding a briefing when released on May 25.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/…
@M_Sumption @UKandEU @MigObs The key trends discussed by @M_Sumption are analysed in our joint report here:

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
This graph, mislabelled, misleadingly sourced, and not crediting its so-called "estimates" to @CPSThinkTank, is an embarrassment even by the standards of the Telegraph. Image

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More from @jdportes

Jonathan Portes Profile picture
May 12
Yes, @FraserNelson is actually claiming that @FullFact -and others who point out falsehoods from politicians and the media - are a threat to free speech. Image
Amusingly, @FraserNelson's views here about fact-checking didn't stop him trying to get me to withdraw an entirely accurate claim I made about him. I offered to bet him £1,000, but of course he didn't take the bet.. Image
I see @FraserNelson is now claiming the article doesn't say what both the headline and the text very plainly say. As usual, doubling down on his dishonesty.. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Jonathan Portes Profile picture
Apr 26
It is worth reading this from Robert Jenrick to get a sense of how far the Conservative Party (or at least the current governing faction) has fallen, intellectually, morally and legally.

conservativehome.com/2023/04/26/rob… Image
There is no evidence cited, or available, to support this - and it simply ignores the UK's history on refugees. Image
This claim is simply false in the UK context: Image
Read 7 tweets
Jonathan Portes Profile picture
Apr 25
This by @JoshuaNevett is dreadful; exactly what the Dilnot report warned against.

"Some economists believe Brexit has had a negative effect on the UK economy, but others argue the benefits of leaving the EU will be seen over time."

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
@JoshuaNevett There's a strong consensus among credible independent economists (as well as BoE, OBR & off-the-record HMT) that the economic impact of Brexit has and will continue to be negative. There is, a legitimate debate about *how* negative and the data and evidence will change over time
On immigration, as I've written many times, the consensus *has* changed and it's reasonable to argue that the impact isn't negative - although it's early days yet. But that doesn't change the overall balance.

bylinetimes.com/2022/08/30/the…
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Portes Profile picture
Mar 15
Brexit and the UK economy - the OBR have re-evaluated the impacts and published their analysis in Box 2.4 of the EFO, here.

Bottom line: their estimate is still that it will reduce long-run productivity/GDP per capita by 4%.

obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploa…

[1/5]
On trade, they note the underperformance of UK trade compared to other advanced economies, and conclude there's no reason to change their view (based on a review of external forecasts) that Brexit will reduce trade volumes by 15%
On investment, bad news: they originally thought Brexit-related uncertainty would have only a relatively small and transitory negative impact. They now think things are worse - a larger negative impact, lasting for longer. (3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Jonathan Portes Profile picture
Jan 31
It’s Brexit Day!

On January 31, 2020, the UK left the EU. 3 years on, what have we learned?

3 key takeaways below..
1. Brexit has, as economists predicted, reduced UK trade and investment.

Only a small, increasingly shrill, fringe group dispute this, although there’s lots of scope for debate about how large the impacts are. My evidence to the Lords EAC summarises:

ukandeu.ac.uk/trade-migratio…
2. The new post-Brexit migration system has reduced migration from the EU but increased it from outside, leading to big sectoral shifts. Immigration overall has risen, although much of this is one-off. My new research with @johnspringford

iza.org/publications/d…
Read 5 tweets
Jonathan Portes Profile picture
Jan 3
Happy New Year! The 2023 Financial Times' economists survey is here:

"The UK will face one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7 in 2023, as households pay a heavy price for the government’s policy failings"

My answers in thread (1/6)

ft.com/content/81fbdf…
Qu. 1: Will the UK economy outpace or lag behind other developed economies in 2023 and how will it feel for households?
Qu. 2. Monetary policy: How tough will the Bank of England need to be in 2023 to curb inflation?
Read 7 tweets

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