Migration is now falling sharply. That’s the government spin. And…for once, it’s true! 😉

ONS migration stats just released show fall from 764K in 2022 to 685K in 2023. But that’s just the start..



[1/13] ons.gov.uk/releases/longt…
More up-to-date visa data from HO shows a much sharper drop is coming. New visas for work and study have fallen by about 20% year on year. Emigration is now rising. [2/13]

gov.uk/government/sta…

tl:dr

For political reasons, @michelledonelan recklessly spread a damaging and dangerous lie about named academics in an area *directly relevant to her Ministerial responsibilities*.

She has now admitted this and paid damages.

In what world is this not a resigning issue?

https://twitter.com/michelledonelan/status/1765045805822394491

@michelledonelan Meanwhile, @UKRI_CEO, whose initial response - now also deleted - was craven and pathetic, also needs to consider her position. At the very least a proper public apology is required.

The great UK trade mystery? UK-EU trade is now a *higher* proportion of total trade than before the referendum, and has been on an *upward* trend.

What's going on? tl;dr - we don't know.

[1/3?]

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
This confounds the predictions of most economists (including me!) who expected the new trade barriers created by Brexit to reduce UK-EU trade (while having little impact on UK trade with the rest of the world).

[2/3]

Today’s migration stats: key points.

1. Some (more) revisions to previously published data but big picture remains the same: migration spiked post-pandemic driven by increases in non-EU migration for work (especially health/care) and study, HK/Ukraine, and asylum 2. But inflows peaked and *emigration* now increasing – a natural consequence of recent inflows, especially students More recent immigration => more emigration. So *emigration* will continue to increase, reducing net migration [we may be underestimating emigration, see below]

The @iealondon have a new report out Monday claiming to show Brexit hasn't hurt UK trade.

I just *love* the tables below (a direct screenshot from the press release!). They *really* think we/you/journalists are stupid.... @iealondon Here's post-Brexit goods trade in real terms - i.e. comparable to the second table above. Very clear that there has been a significant deterioration in UK export performance.

Today's immigration statistics: what have we learned?

Migration was at record levels last year, but has stopped rising and is now likely to fall, with fewer refugees and higher student emigration. So-called “forecasts” were wrong. In calendar year 2023 net migration was 606,000, up from 488,000 in 2021. While the coverage of the numbers (now including asylum seekers), and the way ONS measures it have changed, still fair to say that these are the highest figures on record (2/n)

If Starmer is going to complain about the number of work visas issued, the honest thing to do would be to tell us which of these occupations he wants to cut numbers in:
bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p… via @BBCNews Now I've argued government *could* cut numbers coming in lower paid care roles *if* it's willing to require major increases in pay and improve training and conditions. Wheres the plan and money for that?

This is a common response: "We need skilled migration [in short-term] because we don't train/education Brits well enough."

Sounds plausible. But in fact it can be just another version of the lump of labour fallacy trotted out by anti-immigration politicians/commentators [1/3]

https://twitter.com/WillowRockSpoon/status/1660985647786500096

Take universities. We don't need to hire researchers from abroad because we don't train our own. We need them because the UK HE sector is a growing, dynamic sector - in large part *because* of foreign-born researchers/academics. If it wasn't, we wouldn't need migrants! [2/3]

Yes, @FraserNelson is actually claiming that @FullFact -and others who point out falsehoods from politicians and the media - are a threat to free speech. Amusingly, @FraserNelson's views here about fact-checking didn't stop him trying to get me to withdraw an entirely accurate claim I made about him. I offered to bet him £1,000, but of course he didn't take the bet..

As @M_Sumption said on #r4today just now, wait for the actual numbers rather than paying any attention to the CPS's wild guesses here.

We at @UKandEU and @MigObs will be analysing the data & holding a briefing when released on May 25.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/… @M_Sumption @UKandEU @MigObs The key trends discussed by @M_Sumption are analysed in our joint report here:

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

It is worth reading this from Robert Jenrick to get a sense of how far the Conservative Party (or at least the current governing faction) has fallen, intellectually, morally and legally.

conservativehome.com/2023/04/26/rob… There is no evidence cited, or available, to support this - and it simply ignores the UK's history on refugees.

This by @JoshuaNevett is dreadful; exactly what the Dilnot report warned against.

"Some economists believe Brexit has had a negative effect on the UK economy, but others argue the benefits of leaving the EU will be seen over time."

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… @JoshuaNevett There's a strong consensus among credible independent economists (as well as BoE, OBR & off-the-record HMT) that the economic impact of Brexit has and will continue to be negative. There is, a legitimate debate about *how* negative and the data and evidence will change over time

Brexit and the UK economy - the OBR have re-evaluated the impacts and published their analysis in Box 2.4 of the EFO, here.

Bottom line: their estimate is still that it will reduce long-run productivity/GDP per capita by 4%.

obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploa…

[1/5] On trade, they note the underperformance of UK trade compared to other advanced economies, and conclude there's no reason to change their view (based on a review of external forecasts) that Brexit will reduce trade volumes by 15%

It’s Brexit Day!

On January 31, 2020, the UK left the EU. 3 years on, what have we learned?

3 key takeaways below.. 1. Brexit has, as economists predicted, reduced UK trade and investment.

Only a small, increasingly shrill, fringe group dispute this, although there’s lots of scope for debate about how large the impacts are. My evidence to the Lords EAC summarises:

ukandeu.ac.uk/trade-migratio…

Happy New Year! The 2023 Financial Times' economists survey is here:

"The UK will face one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7 in 2023, as households pay a heavy price for the government’s policy failings"

My answers in thread (1/6)

ft.com/content/81fbdf… Qu. 1: Will the UK economy outpace or lag behind other developed economies in 2023 and how will it feel for households?

Douglas Murray makes it absolutely clear that for him black and Asian Britons - even if born here - aren't *really* British.

Straightforward Powellite white nationalism, no ifs, no buts.

https://twitter.com/DouglasKMurray/status/1597678983906107393

It would be gratifying if the "respectable" commentators who gave Murray's latest diatribe positive reviews - @alexmassie or @rcolvile come to mind - might actually hold their hands up and say, OK, he's just a bigot who went to Eton.

Won't hold my breath.

Immigration stats just released from both ONS and Home Office. ONS stats show highest net migration on record – half a million over year to June. Overwhelmingly, this reflects rising inflows from outside the EU. [1/12]

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… This reflects the new post-Brexit migration system, with workers and students from South Asia and Africa substituting for those from the EU. But there’s a lot of other things going on as well. Five key points:

Frankly this is incoherent, evidence-free nonsense from Starmer.

Is the "immigration dependency" he complains about that business prefer skilled workers from abroad, or that they depend on "low pay and cheap labour"? This is what the Migration Advisory Committee concluded about immigration and training:

This is an uncharacterically shallow, unevidenced article from David Willetts, which not only conflates regular work-related migration and irregular migration but also simply ignores both the law and the evidence on access to benefits.

conservativehome.com/2022/11/08/dav… His first point on matching training to skill shortages. Fine. If DFE central planning of the labour market worked, I think we'd have done it already. 😉

My @NewStatesman article on Mark Carney’s zombie statistic about the UK’s economy shrinking by 20% relative to Germany. Read if you’re interested in economic/statistical issues or economics of Brexit. Here's a meta-thread on why it matters. (1/13?)

newstatesman.com/comment/2022/1… I’ve been quite vocal on this (& was quoted by @mishalhusain on Today) and got quite a bit of pushback. First, from those who say “You may be right in principle/technically, but you miss what people really feel/the prices they are actually paying for imported goods etc.” (2/13)

Kwarteng/Truss testing to destruction Reagan's fiscal policy:

"I'm not worried about the deficit. It's big enough to look after itself". Reagan was (mostly) joking of course. But there was a serious macroeconomic argument underlying this. Standard macro models, as @paulkrugman observes, say big budget deficits push the currency *up* - as indeed happened with Reagan's deficits.

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1573301206688370695?s=20&t=Wiuz_roxXNWdxWA5wTGemw