#Map Bakhmut madness
The topography at the west of Bakhmutka river provides some advantage for SE offense but at the end it favors those who is uphill.
The whole battlefield is 30km wide and 9 km deep so no deployment will hide.
*It’s made for entertainment.
1. Berkhivka hill.
It could be a good place for defense but fully exposed to the downhill attacks from the West and there are no positions to cover the area without exposure to the counter artillery. Can be used to launch an attack to a low ground.
2. Railroad between Berkhivka and Yahidne.
Position to control M03 and all the supply west of the river. The fields are smaller a assault tactics that was used by the russians may be used on the climb agains them on the fall.
3. M03 controll.
T0513 congestion would be a challenge, Paraskoviivka mine dominates the area and should be suppressed where UAV magic may come in handy.
Movement from the NW may help, large fields needs to be crossed in a single move, but they are probably mined.
4. T0513 and the vast valley around - there is no place to hide and would be abandoned once there would be a real push.
6, 7 Choke points.
There are 3 incoming roads from 🇷🇺, T0513 from Horlivka, T1302 - Lisychansk, T0504 - Popasna.
They all are comparably worst to defend than T0504 and O0506 on 🇺🇦 side but still deep behind the city, so 🇷🇺 should not wait when they would be cut off.
🇺🇦 don't really need to push that far away, securing the routes would be more than enough, but if the enemy allows all the possibilities needs to be used.
Outskirts of Berkhivka and Klishchiivka would be well above the expectations.
GSUA
Russians made 5976! assaults at 229 settlements - 59 settlements werent mentioned since October, 36 were mentioned for the first time;
extended by 531km2: capturing 468km2, gray out 62km2.
One of the most attack Intensive months led to mediocre results in exchange of 31190 ivanZ in infantry friendly conditions.
Attack distribution by directions.
Undefined share has significantly increased, as well as Toretsk.
Novopavlivka spilled on Huliaipole.
Kharkiv activities - decreased.
Race to Zaporizhzhia
Russian Army Group East is slowly advancing through the fields of the southern front, with the defensive nodes of Orikhiv and Huliaipole standing between them and the main battle. The poor road network and mostly flat terrain shape every movement on this axis
The Zaporizhzhia front is built around two rivers: the Konka and the Haichur.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover
In contrast, the settlements along the Haichur are small and scattered, which makes the Haichur sector the only area truly suitable for a breakthrough. Still, both river lines are surrounded by relatively large settlements, and this is what creates the current defensive grid.
The situation around Lyman is pretty straightforward: secure the flanks, cut the supply routes, and only then take the town. Everything else depends on that. Yarova and Yampil are the keys on the sides, and cutting the routes feeding Lyman.
Wile main forces will be pocketing the town small infiltration groups can quietly dig in inside of it and wait for the right moment to strike, while AFU will try to counter that with surveillance and counter measures.
There are several crossings over the Siverskyi Donets, but only two of them cannot be cleanly cut, and even those are under constant surveillance and hit with missiles just to keep them barely functional. Everything west of Drobysheve is basically irrelevant once village is taken
You cannot cover everything. Each army can only handle a certain capacity - men, logistics, command, and attention. Once you exceed it, you lose control and start wasting people. 🔽
Stretching the front is not about survival - it is about pressure. You do it when you have spare resources and want to force the enemy to bleed, to react, to stretch too. Otherwise, it is suicide disguised as courage. 🔽
There is a natural shape to every army. Its logistics, structure, and reserves define how wide and deep it can hold. Expanding beyond that breaks the system from the inside. 🔽
Russia used 5330 drones, 1109 (~20%) hit the target, some fall as debris damaging almost as many locations.
Number of artillery barrages continue to decrease.
FPV reporting was haevily impacted by the weather, but overall trend is the same as a month prior.
Bombs usage set an alltime record and was less impacted by the weather that landed FPVs.
MLRS usage stabilized at a 100 a day.
Dont expect big changes after Pokrovsk. Yeah its a hit but not a turning point. Just another town on the long road west. Russians will keep crawling 100-200 meters a day spreading pressure along the 60 km front slipping between defense points.
Villages are russain boosters little steps to jump forward and micro assault groups keep poking every corner. Endless Ukrainian defensive lines mean less than they should when the enemy throws bodies everywhere they always find a weak spot.
AFU doesnt have too many cards left to play so the same node defense stays the backbone. Its the only thing that still makes sense. But the way its used now doesnt really work. Settlements should be prepped better not just trenches but kill zones even inside single houses.