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Some thoughts on #Sudan's Jeddah accord: (Thread)
*RSF, SAF have no incentive for ceasefire at this point. Each side confident of victory.
*RSF has taken heavy hits but holding ground in key parts of Khartoum.
*Fight existential. One man must be left standing.
*RSF, SAF have no incentive for ceasefire at this point. Each side confident of victory.
*RSF has taken heavy hits but holding ground in key parts of Khartoum.
*Fight existential. One man must be left standing.
*RSF's biggest tactical advantage is fighting in urban setting. Civilians are its shield. It cannot allow corridors for civilian exit.
*If dislodged, it can retreat to Darfur, make perihery ungovernable.
*RSF will resist calls to let civilians leave areas under its control.
*If dislodged, it can retreat to Darfur, make perihery ungovernable.
*RSF will resist calls to let civilians leave areas under its control.
*Jeddah asks belligerents to behave gentlemanly, ethically in a conflict scenario where playing dirty a tactical advantage, might tip scale.
*But biggest flaw in Jeddah lack of enforcement mechanism. Declaration based on assumption parties will behave well, abide by it
*But biggest flaw in Jeddah lack of enforcement mechanism. Declaration based on assumption parties will behave well, abide by it
*Opportunity was missed to put some hard teeth into the text and signal robust, coercive and punitive measures.
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