Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area have continued, and geolocated footage confirms that gains have been made. Ukraine has unblocked the Khromove road and is continuing forward. In the south, Russians have been pushed further from Ivanivske. 1/ 🪖
In the Klischiivka area, things are starting to get difficult for the Russians. They still most likely hold parts of the forest southwest of Ivanivske, but the ability to supply it is getting continuously weaker. It is unclear if they have any presence left west of the canal. 2/
If the Ukrainians are able to cross the canal near the supply line, the spearhead lurking in the forest will most likely fall, as the Russians are forced to either retreat or face encirclement. This would mean the last potential threat to the road T0504 would be eliminated. 3/
Ukrainians have made more gains in two days than Russians have in many weeks. However, these are still local and tactical successes, and the general situation has not changed significantly. No villages have been liberated, and the Ukrainians must fight for every field. 4/
There have also been counterattacks in multiple areas in the Donetsk oblast, but with very limited gains. These are most likely probing attacks, as Ukraine is shaping the battlefield for future operations - both at the frontlines and in the rear. Larger operations will follow. 5/
All information in this thread is from open sources, and it does endanger OPSEC in any way. Our team does not publish such material. Both parties are aware of the location of the frontline and its critical areas. 6/6
Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they're attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/
At the same time, both Russian and Ukrainian channels are reporting intensifying Ukrainian actions in multiple directions. Russian defence ministry says that the "general situation" is under control, which means that local situations might not be under control at all. 2/
Russian MoD also speaks of AFU actions in the direction of Maloilyinovka. Maloilyinovka is located in the northern part of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian gains might be greater than we know at the moment, and there is a possibility of counterattacks also inside the city of Bakhmut. 3/
Useat mediat ovat kertoneet Ukrainan ylittäneen Dnipron ja saavuttaneet joen toisen puolen. Asia on kuitenkin vähemmän dramaattinen kuin uutisoinnista voisi päätellä. Ukrainalaisjoukkoja on mennyt joen yli, mutta mitään sillanpääasemaa ei ole. 1/🧵
Viimeisimpien videotodisteiden mukaan Venäjä on iskenyt seuraaviin kohteisiin Hersonin alueella (punaiset ympyrät). Videoilla ei näy suuria joukkokeskittymiä eikä edes erityisen suurta epäsuoran tulen käyttöä, vaan muutamia iskemiä. Todisteet laajemmasta ylimenosta puuttuvat. 2/
Venäjän ja Ukrainan joukot operoivat Dnipron jokisuistossa jatkuvasti. Kyseessä on tiedusteluryhmien ja erikoisjoukkojen toimintaa, jossa ei lähtökohtaisesti pyritä varsinaiseen alueiden haltuunottoon. Tämä ei ole uutta, sitä on tapahtunut viime vuoden lopulta lähtien. 3/
Heavy fighting on the northern side of Bakhmut. In the Khromove road area, despite constant attacks and shelling, Russians have not made any significant progress for weeks.
Our #OSINT team acquired some satellite images which will explain why the attack has mostly halted. 1/🧵
The main reason for the static situation are the extensive fortifications dug by the Ukrainians. They were well prepared to defend against the Russians, and they have held their positions even under the most difficult conditions, even longer than I initially expected. 2/
The general situation in the area looks like this. There can be some slight errors, as some areas are constantly changing hands. Russians are pushing from all sides, and Ukraine is conducting small-scale counterattacks inside the city and the surrounding areas. 3/
Especially 🇩🇪 & 🇺🇸 argued that providing main battle tanks to Ukraine would "escalate the war".
It is disturbing how detached from reality this security analysis was. Russian propaganda and threats practically kept the western tanks out of Ukraine for months. 1/
After the first months it was clear that Russia did not have the capability to seriously escalate the war against western countries, no matter how heavily they would support Ukraine with equipment. Especially a conventional attack could be ruled out. 2/
Despite this, avoiding "escalation" became the main reason why certain weapon systems couldn't be delivered to Ukraine.
Too advanced rocket launchers or anti-air systems would escalate. Infantry fighting vehicles and MBTs would escalate. Fighter jets would escalate. 3/
A new encirclement theat may be rising in Donetsk oblast.
Russians have recently started making gains in the Avdiivka sector, about 50 km south of Bakhmut. The area has been relatively stable for months, but now the situation is becoming more difficult for the Ukrainians. 1/ 🧵
Avdiivka has been on the frontline for years, as fighting in the direction began already in 2014. The enemy was stopped then, and they have been stopped again and again during 2022. Despite heavy fighting, the Russians were unable to make significant progress for a long time. 2/
Months of fighting against constant Russian pressure have caused some cracks in the Ukrainian defense. In the northern side of Avdiivka, Ukraine lost Krasnohorivka and also likely Vesele. In the south, Russians are now attacking Sieverne. The gap is about 11 km wide. 3/
Venäläissotilaat teloittavat aseettomia ihmisiä ja harjoittavat runsaasti sotarikoksia, koska Venäjän asevoimat on moraalisesti mätä organisaatio.
Seuraa lanka rakenteellisista ongelmista. Esimerkkinä tapaus, jossa venäläiset tyhjensivät lippaansa ukrainalaiseen sotavankiin.🧵1/
Venäläisten voimankäyttö on videossa täysin ylimitoitettua. Jos tavoitteena on yksinkertaisesti tappaa ihminen, siihen ei tarvita sarjatulta monesta aseesta. Tämä viittaa siihen, että puolustuskyvyttömän sotavangin ampuminen on venäläisille ensisijaisesti huvia. 2/
Tapahtuma ei ole heille tragedia, jonka yksittäinen sotilas joutuu pakon edessä toteuttamaan. Aseettoman ukrainalaisen ampuminen on toimintaa, johon moni kuvaustilanteessa ollut venäläinen nimenomaan tahtoo osallistua täysillä. Ampuminen jatkuu useita sekunteja. 3/