Thread by @TrentTelenko

Ukraine's possession of Storm Shadow is a weapon that will have logistical effects in May-June 2023 rivaling what the HIMARS/GMLRS combination did for Ukraine in the Late Summer of 2022.

A Logistics 🧵
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1657317762157477888

First, Ukrainian journalists have identified over 220 Russian military targets outside the range of GMLRS rockets but within the range of Storm Shadow.

These targets can now be destroyed.

See:
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/370…
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This will cause a “HIMARS Effect” on Russian logistics at distances 100km to 200km from the front line similar to what happened to Russian logistics 20 km to 85 km in the late summer of 2022. 

Turning that band of 100 km to 200 km distance from the front lines to become the

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...same sort of "logistical desert."

Russia has a number of very large railway & truck depots just "over the 100 km GMLRS line" where they have stockpiled everything, but especially artillery ammunition. 

All of them are now at risk.

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The map at this tweet will give you an idea of the scale of the territory Storm Shadow opens up for Ukraine to strike. 

And remember, unlike the USA, the UK has not limited Storm Shadow's use to just with in pre-1991 Ukrainian territorial borders.

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https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1656625664357744640

As Storm Shadow has GPS, radar & thermal imaging, it can be evasively routed to avoid Russian ground based air defenses and its combination of stealth shaping and radar absorbing material makes it a difficult target for the A-50 Mainstay AEW plane & especially Russian jets.

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The Storm Shadow and its French version, the SCALP, has racked up an impressive combat record in the Libyan Civil War with the UK & Italy, with the UK & France in Syria, the UK in Iraq, Saudi Arabia in Yemen (rumored) and finally with either UAE or Egyptian Rafael

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...fighters striking Turkish MIM-23 Hawk anti-aircraft missiles systems in Libya.

However, the use of the AGM-160B decoy suggests Ukraine is taking no chances in making sure it gets the maximum weapons effect with the fewest Storm Shadows used.

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"Signature Augmentation" is the modern description of deception jamming that makes the radar return - the blip - bigger & more powerful.

Stealth planes & munitions get the most protection from decoys that have such deception jamming.

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https://twitter.com/SSgtKotyk/status/1503824088414003208

Even more important is that the Storm Shadow has an advanced warhead technology called “BROACH” which stands for Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge.

See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BROACH_wa…

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BROACH is a two stage 450 kg (2000 lb) warhead with a shaped charge explosive to punch a hole into armor, concrete etc., followed by a semi-armor piercing stage that will penetrate down that hole deeply into a hardened target or concrete structure.

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The American JASSM uses the same BROACH warhead as Storm Shadow does.

So the weapons effects in this JASSM video will calibrate your eyes to what Storm Shadow can do to Russian military & logistical infrastructure.

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The three highest priority targets for such a Storm Shadow warhead are the Kerch Straits Railway Bridge followed by the eastern and western Crimean Peninsula isthmus railway bridges. 

Destroying those three bridges simultaneously will cause a 'systemic shock' to

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...Russian fuel logistics in southern Ukraine.

Russian AFV's do not have small auxiliary power units to keep their batteries charged to run radios and night vision gear. 

Cutting off rail delivered fuel for these AFV will reduce Russian mobility and night time firepower

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...in the event of the impending Ukrainian Offensives.

Additionally, if the Ukrainians are smart and aim their Storm Shadows for bringing down the Kerch bridge section over the Azov sea ship channel entrance.  They may be able to stop freighter transits for however long

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...it takes Russia to clear the debris from the ship  channel. 

This will stop the Russian ability to use the Sea of Azov ports & Russia's river system for international trade, a de facto blockade.

https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1571876085444542466

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I'm also expecting a mass fleet movement by the Black Seas fleet out of Sevastopol very soon as both support facilities and ships in port are meat on the table for the Storm Shadow and AGM-160B decoy strike combination.

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On the political front, the delivery of Storm Shadow completely undermines the US/German/French deescalation faction politically as it makes the striking power of ATACMS & F-16's irrelevant. 

The F-16 would still be desperately needed by Ukraine, but as an AMRAAM

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...and APKWS missile (photo) carrying air defense platform, not as a strike plane.

There is little point, and a lot of political embarrassment, to sticking publicly to F-16 "De-escalation" with Storm Shadows striking the Russian railway depot at Rostov on the Don.

19/19 End