Thread by @KristiRaik

As #LennartMeriConference is drawing to a close, some take-aways from many stimulating debates on stage and in the margins.
Supporting Ukraine has become the only possible position to take. Yet the limits of Western unity are hard to hide, with constant arguments over:
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- the extent and speed of military support to Ukraine, now focused on F16s
- expected outcome of the war, and what does the level of expectation mean for Western policy
- Ukraine’s path to NATO and EU membership, where major steps forward should be made this year

I just don’t get the logic of those who argue that Ukraine is unlikely to liberate all territories, and therefore we should limit Western support, but this argument keeps being made.

Fear of Russia keeps shaping NATO’s position on Ukraine.
First, the wish not to provoke Russia "too much", since "eventually we need to agree with them on European security".
Amazing how little was learned from Western attempts not to provoke Russia thus far.

Second, there is Western fear of getting into war with Russia. Indeed, even after the current war in Ukraine stops, Russia may come back. The argument that having Ukraine in NATO would make this less likely and strengthen NATO's deterrence and defence remains a hard sell.

As for the EU, there is the big question of how the EU needs to be reformed before Ukraine et al. can join.
Supporters of enlargement, incl. the Baltic states, need to seriously engage in discussions on internal reform if we really want further enlargement to happen.

My take-away on Russia’s future is dark – the post-imperial and democratic Russia we’d so wish to see is nowhere in sight. There are reasonable Russians we keep talking to and supporting, but I’m afraid this sometimes distorts Western views on Russia’s future prospects.

'Global South' has become a compulsory topic of any international security conference these days. A lot of mourning about western lack of influence on the global South regarding Ukraine. But we need to acknowledge

there is geopolitical competition going on where many countries in the global south don’t want to choose side. We need to find ways to engage these countries but should not expect them to have identical views and interests with us.

Overall, one lesson I draw is that the Baltic states have been listened to more than ever during the past 15 months but it remains hard work to influence the decisions of the EU and NATO on Ukraine, Russia, European security etc.

Finally, I’m so proud of colleagues @ICDS_Tallinn – Eeva Eek-Pajuste et al. – who have worked hard to make this happen. Sometimes we don’t fully appreciate in Estonia how important #LennartMeriConference is for our country’s international influence. Let's keep it going.
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