Thread by @HannaLiubakova

#Belarus The current Consitution offers these two scenarios:

First, if Lukashenka suddenly dies, the chairperson of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kachanava, will perform his duties until the new elections. The Council of the Republic is the upper house of the parliament.

Secondly, if Lukashenka is killed, a state of emergency or martial law will be declared, while state institutions and officials will follow the decisions of the Security Council. At the same time, the same Kachanava will preside over the meetings of the Security Council.

Both scenarios can create a crisis. The chairperson of the Council of the Republic has no real power to influence the government and the lower house of the parliament. She became the "second" person due to the recent changes in the Constitution. Lukashenka might trust her.

But will others follow her? Also, how will prime minister Raman Halouchanka behave?

In the case of the Security Council, it is even more unclear. It has to take decisions by the majority and a pandora's box might open. Different actors will have different agendas & motivations.

The democratic forces must signal their readiness for various scenarios and openness for negotiations.

#Russia will also try to influence the power transit & determine the next leader of Belarus. This is why it is crucial to prevent the Kremlin from doing so and weaken Moscow.