Thread by @ProfHughLewis

Welcome to this month's look at #Starlink conjunction risk mitigation manoeuvres. Through 30 April 2023, I estimate that Starlink satellites have made a total of > 45,000 manoeuvres to mitigate the risk of colliding with other space objects [1/n]

A better relationship to consider is the one between the (cumulative) number of manoeuvres and the (cumulative) number of Starlink satellites launched. The growth is a non-linear function of the number of Starlink satellites [2/n]

Here, I looked at the manoeuvre estimates/reports in 6-monthly intervals, corresponding to the reporting periods used by SpaceX. Additionally, I added a prediction to the end of 2024 based on an exponential fit through 30 April 2023. [3/n]

Based on the predictions, I think SpaceX could be reporting > 100,000 new manoeuvres in the 12 months from 1 June 2023 (if the trends continue; note the caveat about correlation/causation in the image description above) [4/n]

Here's the same chart but with a logarithmic y-axis [5/n]

Thanks to @TSKelso for support with the SOCRATES/SOCRATES PLUS data (here: celestrak.org/SOCRATES/) and @planet4589 for support with the Starlink statistics (here: planet4589.org/space/con/star…) [6/6; fin]