Goshawk Trades🔨 Profile picture
May 15 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Edge Edge Edge.

Everyone talks about it, including myself, but what does it actually look like?

And Most Importantly how can you spot it?

Here's How:
Equity Curves:

These show the cumulative returns of your particular strategy over time.

You are looking for a steadily upward sloping equity curve, while avoiding the ones look more like a heart beat or a nosedive. Image
Heatmap:

These are two-dimensional visual representation of returns using colors, where the colors all represent different returns.

You are looking for a consistent high return colors over the heatmap, with a clear direction of returns over time. Image
Monte Carlo:

These allow you to show the historical trades of your strategy reshuffled over time over 100s of different reshufflings.

You are looking for a your avg equity curve to be trending upwards, instead a mess of uncorrelated equity curves. Image
It's super important to test and visualize your edge. Don't just rely on intuition - put your strategies to the test!

If you found this useful, give the tweet below a like.

Follow @GoshawkTrades for insights on backtesting / systematic trading

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More from @GoshawkTrades

May 16
The Man Who Made An 892,000% Return In 2020:

Lukas Frohlich @TheShortBear

Over 12 months in 2020, that return would have made him over $200,000,000 starting with a PDT account.

Just featured on the @chatwithtraders podcast for 1.5 hours.

Here are the key lessons:
Lukas emphasizes the importance of "Social Spaces" for developing traders.

These allow you to watch other strategies without putting up the risk yourself.

Social Spaces he mentions:
-Discord
-Twitter
-Meetups

This will save you a lot of R&D funds in strategy development.
Lukas recommends creating a bucket of data for each play.

In practice this is often a scanner. This is a crucial step, he says this enables you to test if "you actually have edge".

If you aren't able to pinpoint what makes that trade viable, it's mostly likely random.
Read 10 tweets
May 11
Over The Past 3 Years, I've spent 100s of hours developing and testing systematic trading strategies.

And the truth is, I have a lot lying around on my hard drive collecting dust.

So instead I'll release some backtested strategies for you.

Here's the first one: Image
Pre Market High Shorting Strategy.

This is a commonly discussed strategy in small-cap Twitter circles. I think it will be a great first strategy to share.

Rather than simply sharing the criteria, I want to present the backtest results as well.
Criteria: Image
Read 6 tweets
May 10
Experiment With Your Strategy...

I just spent 10 hours experimenting with different price bars for one strategy.

The reason; to escape crowded strategies.

Here's 2 ways to do it 🧵
The best way to escape crowded strategies is to try out different time frames or price-based candlesticks.

What's a candle stick? It shows an asset's price movement over a set amount of time.

The most common candlesticks are time based, e.g. a 5 min candlestick.
This is the first way we can escape crowded strategies.

Try your strategy on a range of time based candlesticks, try it on a low and high time frame.

Examples:
1 minute - lower time frame
30 minute - higher time frame
Read 6 tweets
May 9
Systematic Trading Opens The Door To Algorithmic Trading.

But you might not want to open it.

🧵 on if you should turn your strategy into an algo.
There are 2 main things to consider:

• Experience Level
• Market
1. Experience Level

Understanding whether you have a positive expectancy discretionary edge is critical when deciding whether to use algos.

Does your current experience level allow you consistently improve your current strategy?
Read 8 tweets
Jan 28
Let's spark a debate on the pros and cons of high win rate - low R/R vs. Low win rate - high R/R setups in trading.

While high R/R setups are often perceived as "better!"

Let's explore why you might actually prefer lower R setups: 1⃣ Image
First and foremost, let's lay out the setups so we can compare them.

Setup1 - 70% Win rate - 0.8R

Setup2 - 40% Win Rate - 2.5R

If I gave you the option between these two setups, I believe most traders would prefer a higher R on an average win. Which chart matches the setup?2⃣ ImageImage
Reveal:
Chart1 = Setup2
Chart2 = Setup1

We can see that a high R setup will create greater volatility in your equity curve.

This is important to consider when deciding between setups because increased volatility equals a higher risk of poor execution and emotional volatility.3⃣
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
Want to test the true performance of your #trading strategy?

Try Walk Forward Testing (WFT) - it models how it would have performed on historical data using a rolling window approach for a more realistic evaluation.

Expand to learn more about why it is essential:1⃣
Let's go over the benefits and disadvantages so we can come to a conclusion on whether a WFT technique would be effective for your trading strategy.

Pros:
✅WFT enables a more accurate evaluation of strategy performance.

Why would that be?

2⃣
By accounting for the effects of changing market conditions and adapting the strategy accordingly.

✅It also helps to identify overfitting by testing the strategy's performance on unseen data.

3⃣
Read 8 tweets

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