Faisal Islam Profile picture
May 16 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW / EXCL - breaking on #bbcnewsten and News online … Vauxhall owner Stellantis tells Government to renegotiate Brexit deal signed by Boris Johnson as it confirms for first time its UK electric car exports will not qualify for TCA from January as wont meet origin requirements.
Stellantis document 🚨

‘We are now unable to meet these rules of origin…

“Our request to Government is to gain agreement with the EU to maintain the current rules until 2027”… “trade between the UK and EU would be subject to 10% tariffs making exports uncompetitive” Image
this bit was really pretty 👀… Stellantis “If the cost of EV Manufacturing in the UK becomes uncompetitive..
operations will close. Manufacturers will…relocate manufacturing operations outside of UK, as seen with previously established UK manufacturers such as Ford and Mini” Image
Full exclusive here…
And more tomorrow….

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
I’m told this applies across the industry… and that stellantis are now planning for the impact tariffs on exports from January, and are not sure why it hasn’t been dealt with, after the post pandemic/ energy crisis increased the cost of non European components…

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More from @faisalislam

May 14
From the new green gold rush in Kentucky to portals of power in Washington, Berlin & Paris - new green industrial trade battle could change economics, diplomacy & politics here…

My long read on the future - is the UK being left on sidelines as some fear? bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Features on & off record interviews with US administration, EU, Paris, Berlin, Chancellor…and visit to an extraordinary development in US of cathode EV battery precursor material almost exclusively made out of China before $500m grant from US Govt & spades in ground the next day Image
THREAD:
shovels are in the ground, excavators are levelling the red brown soil, the USA is digging for victory in a new economic battle, and in quite the hurry. President Biden sees this as a new pan continental “Battery Belt” stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes
Read 6 tweets
May 10
NEW: Business & Trade Sec Kemi Badenoch confirms Govt will not now by default sunset all EU laws still applicable in UK by end of year….because departments identified “growing volume of REUL”… will instead pick laws to revoke…amendment to Lords bill

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem… Image
Instead “Government is tabling an amendment for Lords Report, which will replace current sunset in the Bill with a list of retained EU laws we intend to revoke under the Bill at the end of 2023” so by default it stays unless identified to help “provide certainty” for business
Indeed on Rees Mogg’s dashboard of Retained EU Laws, they seem to have since January found that there were 1,080 more than they expected… Image
Read 4 tweets
May 10
In Stoke filming with biz on econ/ cost of living - just popped in the market to escape biblical downpour - security guard marches up to us, says we can’t film, have to ask council.
Ring up council - if you film “you will be removed” something to do with election purdah…strange.
Just had the guard circle round subtly as we were eating a cheese toastie, and “they’re trying to film something about the cost of living” blurts out over the radio… seem somewhat over sensitive. Am I missing something about the acute sensitivity of the fruit & veg market?
All good now 👍🏽

It turns out we can get things done on a wet Wednesday in Stoke…
Read 5 tweets
May 10
NEW
Census reveals 15% increase in adult (over 18s) children living with their parents between 2011 and 2021…. Now 4.9 million (vs 4.2m). 3:2 sons to daughters… mainly late 20s early 30s

Now 1 in 4 households in London. Image
ONS plays down pandemic effect here - clearly becoming far more normal for a generation of 1990s born, those who were supposed to benefit from mass university education, who have significant tuition fee debt, who are feeling the rough edge of the housing market & sluggish economy
NEW census reveals that now a majority of adult children are now living with their parents up to the age of 23…

Just 10 years ago only at 19 & 20 were majority of adult children living at parents home…

About a tenth or higher up to the age of 33 (9.9%), that was 30 in 2011 Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 28
NEW Governor Bailey tells MPs that Silicon Valley Bank collapse was the fastest collapse he can recall since Barings in 1995 - Fed Chair said last week suggested it was fastest run in history…
Sam Woods, PRA boss, immediately stresses the issue we pointed to last week - that speed with which runs can now happen (social media/ digital banking) might require change in regulation, specifically the liquidity coverage ratios. SVB UK lost £3bn in deposits in a day on 10th
PRA’s Woods: “I think there's going to be a question for all of us [on assumed outflow of retail deposits] but it is a question of size whether those outflow rates are quite high enough”…

Would be helpful if someone on @CommonsTreasury clarified what the outflow rate is - 3-5%?
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27
Governor Bailey doing a speech at LSE quoting from ChatGPT etc…suggests essentially interest rates will settle at a lower long term rate than pre financial crisis history…

Also points to “structural change” explanations for falls in productivity…
“much also points to structural change. Perhaps new ideas have become harder to come by, or perhaps technological innovation & specialisation have faded as globalisation slowed.” - seems to lean in to theory that we are running out of innovation/ or perhaps due to deglobalisation
Bailey: “long term sickness driving much of the persistent rise in inactivity… the inactive population appears more detached from the labour market”
Read 6 tweets

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