Thread by @BDavisBriz

A little late to the party, but catching up on this webinar to read the runes of the recent local elections & see what the results mean for urban Britain #LocalElections

https://twitter.com/CentreforCities/status/1656207755655499778

Jennings also highlights that this was Labour's best electoral performance for some time, even compared to the 2013 peak. However, Jennings notes that our Parliamentary geography has changed since 1990s, so harder for Labour to get a majority in Westminster now #LocalElections

Jennings also highlights that this was Labour's best electoral performance for some time, even compared to the 2013 peak. However, Jennings notes that our Parliamentary geography has changed since 1990s, so harder for Labour to get a majority in Westminster now #LocalElections

On political analysis, Jennings observes that "political commentators have short memories", noting that in the post-Covid bounce, commentators were predicting the death of Labour for a generation, whereas now seen as a Govt in waiting #LocalElections

Jennings now turns to #Brexit, and whether it is still a major force in British politics. He notes that, in areas with high Leave votes, Labour has seen an increase in these areas compared to 2019, with Conservatives & Lib Dem losing votes in these areas #LocalElections

This, Jennings argues can see the "Brexit unwinding" in British politics. He concludes that, while Brexit did cause a political realignment in UK politics, it is less of a dividing issue for voters #LocalElections

Broadly, Jennings says there has generally been a swing from Conservatives towards Labour. Regionally, Labour saw the biggest gains in the North and Midlands, with the Lib Dems in the South #LocalElections

Jennings closes looking at three Councils that were particularly interesting, all of which showing how the political tides are turning for the major parties and, in particular, areas where we are seeing Labour making gains #LocalElections

Next speaker @HeaterAtTheMJ notes that, while many local Conservative candidates blame their poor performance on national issues, there was some "cognitive dissonance" with those same candidates criticising the media for "making local elections a poll on Sunak" #LocalElections

Looking to the future, Jameson also notes that this "isn't the end to the swing to Labour" as there will be further elections between now and the next general elections which may see further losses for Conservative candidates #LocalElections

Turning to other reasons for losses, Jameson notes that a common comment was the failure of the #LevellingUp agenda to translate into tangible improvements & benefits for local communities #LocalElections

Jameson says candidates also blamed the rain - both in preventing candidates to campaign as much as they'd like, but also for "making potholes worse" and preventing councils from repairing them #LocalElections

Finally, Jameson also notes that many local candidates were "frustrated" about what they saw as an unwillingness from some of the "big hitter national politicians" to lend their endorsement to local election campaigns #LocalElections

Now @GideonSkinner looks at the issues that affected local elections - echoes Jameson in saying that potholes featured heavily amongst concerns of voters - particularly amongst older voters #LocalElections

Turning to the national polls, Skinner notes that the public mood is generally pessimistic - especially around inflation, economic performance, public services and immigration #LocalElections

On inflation, Skinner notes that inflation is now at a level we have not seen since the early 1980s, so it is not an issue many voters are familiar with, and one most of our politicians have not yet had to respond to #LocalElections

However, Skinner also notes there are small signs of optimism increasing as certain economic indicators suggest, for example, that inflation and food prices will start to come down in the coming months #LocalElections

Turning to party "brands", Skinner notes that the Tory "brand" is "rather damaged" at the moment - especially since the downfalls of Johnson & Truss in quick succession. This has had a significant impact on local election results #LocalElections

Jennings notes that Sunak has stabilised, but not improved, the party's standing. This is also coupled with a general sense amongst voters that "it is time for a change" #LocalElections

By contrast, Skinner notes that Labour are "in their strongest position for years". He notes that the general "fear" of a Corbyn government has now gone, with Starmer having more voter confidence than Corbyn or Miliband #LocalElections

That said, Skinner says that Labour are not experiencing the highs of the Blair years. Rather, Starmer is more comparable to David Cameron's popularity ratings pre-2010 #LocalElections

Skinner also notes that this is more due to collapsing faith in Conservatives, rather than increased faith in Labour - with Starmer's own popularity at the same level vs Sunak as he was vs Johnson #LocalElections

The webinar now moves on to a Q&A session #LocalElections

On what the Green Party's performance at local elections could mean for their chances of a future MP, Jennings says this raises "interesting questions" to local elections #LocalElections

Jennings notes that, while they are showing their credibility as a local choice, the FPTP of national politics is a bigger hurdle for smaller parties. However, this does suggest there is growing support for left-leaning parties vs Conservatives #LocalElections

Jennings says this is particularly concerning for the Conservatives as it shows a shift to the Left - although he notes that Reform UK "have not yet got themselves established" as a right-wing alternative #LocalElections

However, Jennings is not sure if this will yet result in another Green MP. Says much of this may depend on how they perform in local government #LocalElections

Jameson says local elections have seen an increase of Councils with "No Overall Control", which may see "rainbow coalitions" led predominantly by Lib Dems but with "smatterings" of Green Party support #LocalElections

Jameson also observes that Net Zero and Climate Change are significant policy issues at the moment, which may be why we've seen increase in Green support. If this continues, we may see increased support at next general election #LocalElections

On function of LGA, Jameson repeats a rumour that Greens may be challenging for Chair of Independent LGA Group, which may see a louder Green voice. Labour now also expected to become Chair of LGA, which will give Labour more channels to criticise national Govt #LocalElections

Skinner is asked on what national issues are making the biggest impact on local election results - he highlights Levelling Up, housing and crime, but stresses there are regional differences between local priorities & across cities & rural wards #LocalElections

Jennings reflects on Levelling Up and Govt's success (or lack thereof) in implementing its agenda post-2019. Jennings notes Levelling Up was a "powerful rhetorical tool" for Johnson's government to show they cared about certain regions #LocalElections

Jennings observes that, while it promised a lot, the Levelling Up funding pots were "significantly smaller than EU Structural Funds". However, this has been "washed away" by the departure of Johnson, Covid & the cost of living crisis #LocalElections

Jameson agrees that Levelling Up "was more of a political slogan than a political reality". She notes that, even without Covid, Johnson was never going to fully level up the country in a single four-year term #LocalElections

Jameson also notes the mismanagement of the Levelling Up Funds, and the perception in the Home Counties that funding is being diverted to the Red Wall to shore up Conservative's electoral base #LocalElections

On whether future Govt's will "pivot away" from Levelling Up, Jameson says Govt currently lacks a plan and Labour have yet to put forward a credible alternative - irrespective of whether they keep the Levelling Up rhetoric #LocalElections

Turning to housing, Skinner notes that, while it is an important issue nationally with voters, it is still a "second tier" issue for many voters #LocalElections

While there is a growing sense that the government "needs to do something" to solve the Housing crisis, Skinner notes that some areas want the Govt to build more homes, whereas other regions want the Govt to stop building homes in their area #LocalElections

Jennings agrees - says that while there is growing concern over the housing crisis, this has not led to a "serious conversation" or "rush to build homes at any cost" at the national level #LocalElections

On relationships between Local and Central governments, Jameson says there is a current attitude in Westminster to view local government as a "homogenous lump" rather than "400 tiny little lumps" #LocalElections

The final Q is on what impact these local election results will have on the date of the next General Election. Jennings predicts that the GE will be "pushed to the back end" of the year to give them the chance to "repair the damage" #LocalElections

By this, Jennings predicts October - November as moving it in to Winter 24 or Early 25 would be "unpopular with both the general public and local activists" #LocalElections

Skinner agrees. Says local election results suggest that they may lose an earlier election, so they will give themselves as much time as possible to give themselves the best chance of delivering on some of their policy commitments #LocalElections

Really interesting analysis of the local election results & how this could impact national politics. Thanks to @drjennings @GideonSkinner & @HeatheratTheMJ for your insights, to @AndrewCities for chairing & @CentreforCities for hosting! #LocalElections

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