Joshua Landis Profile picture
May 19 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
WSJ claims that “The Arab League’s about-turn, en­gi­neered by Riyadh, co­in-cides with Wash­ing­ton’s wan­ing in­flu­ence in the region. “

Why?

B/c the “U.S. has of­ten pressed for de­moc­ra­tiza­tion.”

But this is wrong. ==> 🧵 wsj.com/articles/syria…
US policy makers had decided by 2013 that they did not want to see the Syrian military destroyed b/c they feared that the opposition was dominated by radical Islamists & the country might fall apart.

The US chose Assad over the alternatives.

Blaming Russia is disingenuous
Read the Deputy Director of the CIA in 2013

"it's going to take the institution of the Syrian military and the institutions of the Syrian security services to defeat al Qaeda when this is done."

cbsnews.com/news/the-brief…
"I'm concerned because I fear the breakup of the state of Syria, collapse of the central government, sectarian warfare, opportunity for al Qaeda to have a safe haven in Syria"

Or try this:

CIA: US does not want to see Assad fall | The Times of Israel

timesofisrael.com/cia-us-does-no…
CIA Chief says: (2015)

“Extremist elements” including the IS group & Al-Qaeda are “ascendant now."

None of us, Russia, US, coalition, etc, wants to see a collapse of the gov. or pol. institutions in Damascus. The last thing we want to do is allow them to march into Damascus.”
Sec of Def Panetta in 6/2012

Syrian military must remain intact

“The best way [to keep stability in #Syria ] is to maintain as much of the military & police as you can & hope that they will transition to a democratic form of government. That’s the key.”

reuters.com/article/us-syr…

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More from @joshua_landis

May 17
Jordanians want sanctions on Syria lifted

Jordan's exports to Syria increased by 23% during the first 7 months of 2022, but are not close to prewar levels.

Jordanian economists demand that the Caesar Act that disrupted trade be lifted.

ammannet.net/english/jordan…
“The international sanctions on #Syria must be lifted, and Jordanian-Syrian economic relations must return to the status quo ante,” wrote Musa Al Saket, a member of the Amman Chamber of Commerce.
“The sanctions are unfair to our economy & the Syrian people,” he wrote. “Twelve years since the war broke out, more than 90% of the #Syria population lives below the poverty line, with limited access to food and medicine. This is a major catastrophe,” Saket added:
Read 6 tweets
Nov 28, 2022
US tries to thwart Turkish invasion of northern #Syria again

But with no long-term Syria policy, everyone sees the US commitment to the Kurds as weak and vacillating.

SDF Commander Mazlum Kobane insists that the US must do more: =>🧵

al-monitor.com/originals/2022… via @AlMonitor
Russia wants us to seek an agreement #Syria, Kobani told Zaman

“As for the U.S., they need to articulate a policy on Syria. They have no strategy beyond fighting [ISIS] and have failed to formulate a clear policy with regard to the future of the areas under our control. Image
"The absence of this policy makes it harder for us to negotiate successfully with Damascus,” adding that the US does not oppose talks with Assad’s government.

But Syria’s not ready, “and Russia is not applying enough pressure on them,” adds Kobane. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
Shifting energy import patterns enhance China’s clout in the Middle East

China became in 2016 the largest investor in the Arab world with investments worth $29.5 billion, targeted at infrastructure, industrial parks, pipelines, ports, and roads.
Total bilateral trade b/n Saudi Arabia & China grew from $42.4 billion in 2010 to $76 billion in 2019, quickly making China the top trading partner for Saudi Arabia.

In 2020, China replaced the European Union as the GCC’s largest trading partner.

agsiw.org/growing-china-…
Saudi Arabia was China’s top supplier of crude oil in 2021, accounting for 17% of Chinese oil imports.

KSA beat out even Russia, although since the Ukraine war, Russia may again top the KSA in export of oil to China due to discounting.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 22, 2022
The logic of Turkey and Syria returning to the Adana Agreement of 1998 or something approaching it is overwhelming.

Both Turks and Americans are learning that ruling hunks of Syria and unruly Syrians, is a thankless task that will sink them into ever growing trouble.
1. Idlib & N Aleppo cannot be made into a viable state. Neither can Kurdish led N.E. Syria.
2. ISIS is strengthened by Syria's partition into 3 waring parts.
3. There is no internat'l legitimacy to the N. Syrian statelets, which means that no oil company will undertake repairs.
4. The US gains little by its control of N Syria, save the knowledge that it has yet to forsake the Kurds. Turkey is the more important ally, causing the US to turn a blind eye to Erdogan's excellerating attacks on the SDF/YPG. It is a matter of time before US soldiers are killed
Read 6 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
I am linking to two videos made by a graduate student in Great Britain, Jalal Imran, as a part of his research on #Syria

Jisr video 1 t.me/WaR2011sl/6 (On Telegram)

This videos covers the violent episode in Jisr al-Shughour area in Syria in early June 2011.

Thread =>
This early phase of the Syrian conflict was characterized as a period of peaceful and spontaneous protests. The videos contradict this narrative.

The 1st video shows that large-scale violence in Jisr (dozens of Syrian security forces were killed) was the result of
an organized insurgency.

There was no army mutiny as the opposition asserted. The "mutiny" explanation served to obscure the existence of an armed insurgency and preserve the West's unique focus on regime violence.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
Syrian Kurds seek Damascus's support against Turkish military action

The SDF & the Syrian gov forces are negotiating a joint operations command room, a Kurdish leader said.

"Our military coordination with the regime is developing.”

By @AlkanjSultan

al-monitor.com/originals/2022…
Syria's Kurds have no where to turn but to Damascus & Russia to halt Turkey's expansion of a buffer zone.

The U.S, the traditional defender of the Kurds, seems to have accepted the Kurdish-Damascus rapprochement as the best outcome.

The US needs better relations with Turkey.
Washington most have decided that a long-term U.S. presence in #Syria not in its interests.

ISIS has been defeated. Damascus/Russia/Kurds can police Syria against remaining ISIS cells.

Damascus rule is less destructive than Ankara rule.
Read 4 tweets

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