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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
@HoansSolo
May 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
On May 21/22 1809, the French are defeated by the Austrians under Archduke Charles at Aspern-Essling near Vienna.

It marks the 1st serious military defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte in his career.

( Some French history books refer to the battle as a a draw.) #TodayInHistory Image
The Austrians would be crushed a few weeks later at the Battle of Wagram. The 1809 campaign launched by Austria shows the dangers of going to war with an army in the middle of org./tact. reforms & disagreements among senior political/military leaders at the grand strategy level.
Archduke Charles was initially against the war, but overruled. 1809 would mark the end of Austria as a an independent actor/great power until 1813.

The Austrians at Aspern-Essling also caused the first fatality among Napoleon's marshals: Jean Lannes. Image
The defeat of 1809 also cemented the rise of Metternich. Archduke Charles' military reforms prior to 1809 ultimately laid the foundation for Austria's military resurrection in 1813. Image

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More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
May 23
Ukrainian infantry kill chain in the trenches: “Kaban and Cadet were to shoot the S.P.G.-9 every hour until dawn. Kaban kept in his cargo pocket a digital tablet with several dozen targets flagged on a satellite map:…” This @NewYorker piece is a must-read.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
“…Russian bunkers, trenches, and observation posts that had been identified by Ukrainian drones. ‘The key is regular strikes,’ the officer said. ‘It’s crawling with infantry over there.’ Both Kaban and Cadet were now smiling.”
“‘Here we go,’Kaban said.
Clouds covered the moon and the stars. The battalion had begun the war with about seventy-five American night-vision devices, but many had been lost as soldiers were killed or injured in firefights.”
Read 8 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
May 22
My latest for @ForeignPolicy: The only practical policy to deter Russia once the hot phase of this war ends is to help turn Ukraine into a formidable military porcupine with hardened, lethal quills.
foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/22/ukr…
As the ongoing war demonstrates, a porcupine defense strategy for Ukraine needs to acknowledge that any future war is likely to be similarly dominated by large-scale land battles, mutual attrition, and the need for lots of firepower and protection from it.
This needs to be reflected in a long-term rearmament plan for Ukraine. Europe and the United States consequently need to take the necessary steps today in order to prepare for rapid and substantial military support for Ukraine once the hot phase of the war is over.
Read 12 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
May 19
Interesting new report: "Russian artillery has begun to significantly refine the Reconnaissance Strike Complex following the destruction of its ammunition stockpiles & command & control infrastructure by guided multiple-launch rocket systems in July 2022." rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"This has resulted in much closer integration of multiple UAVs directly supporting commanders authorised to apply fires. Russian artillery has also improved its ability to fire from multiple positions and to fire and move, reducing susceptibility to counterbattery fire."
"The key system enabling this coordination appears to be the Strelets system. There has been a shift in reliance upon 152-mm howitzers to a much greater emphasis on 120-mm mortars in Russian fires; this reflects munitions and barrel availability."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 29
U.S. plans to ramp up production of key munitions have fallen short due to shortages of chips, machinery and skilled workers.

wsj.com/articles/u-s-p… via @WSJ
The US Army and defense companies "hatched broad plans last summer to double output of some of the most widely used munitions over the next two years. Production is rising, but at a slower pace than originally hoped."
"Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies Corp. aim to boost annual production of their Javelin antitank missile to 3,500 in 2026 from around 2,000 currently."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 18
My latest: The first 24 hrs. of Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive may be the longest day for the 🇺🇦 Armed Forces. The initial phase of an attack often shapes the character of the subsequent fight & determines the strategic impact of an offensive. foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukr…
Whatever happens on Ukraine’s D-Day, it will not be easy for Ukrainian forces to avoid the war’s character as one of attrition, even if they are large, well-prepared, and well-equipped.
There is perhaps only one way for Ukraine to escape the scourge of attrition in the opening hours of the upcoming offensive: set off paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic across the Russian rank and file.
Read 9 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 18
Also,I think arguments about self-deterrence in this context are somewhat exaggerated. True to a degree but:
1. Some Western countries simply made the calculation that it is not in their national interest to deliver the bulk of their most advanced weapons & munitions to Ukraine.
"NATO countries cannot discount the possibility of direct hostilities with Russia, and the United States must prepare for potential military action in Asia (to deter or respond to any Chinese move against Taiwan) and in the Middle East (against Iran or terrorist networks)."
2. The West collectively is running low on certain platforms, weapons systems, and munitions needed in Ukraine. So the problem is a structural one caused by reductions in force sizes, cut in defense budgets etc. & not just political will.
Read 4 tweets

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