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Florian Mueller Profile picture
@FOSSpatents
May 22 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Investment bank Macquarie says #Microsoft should close the #Activision deal:

“...would result in a legal battle with the @CMAgovUK but one we think worth fighting as it is precedent-setting for an acquisitive company to allow one country to block a $75 billion deal"

#UnblockABK
So here you have one of the world's largest investment banks (among other things, the worlds largest infrastructure asset manager) saying that it would be a viable and commercially prudent strategy to just close the ABK deal over the CMA's objection and duke it out in court.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
In my opinion, anyone in favor of the ABK deal should unfollow and ignore Gazondaily now that @Perlrulez tweeted a segment of that laughable interview with the small-island (not talking about the big island that is Britain) M&A lawyer.
@Perlrulez It was really absurd when Gazondaily thought he could ridicule my position on (a) the CAT's authority to make a definitive decision in a case and (b) the CMA's limited independence.

To put that into perspective, I won an EU politics award from a publication that belonged to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This screenshot (Google) shows that Macquarie and I have known each other for over a decade :-) But I haven't discussed the ABK situation with them, so their recommendation has nothing to do with my views. Image

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Florian Mueller Profile picture
May 22
The problem with statistics about CMA merger appeals is that we"re dealing with a small statistical sample. Thus some things that haven't happened may just not have happened YET

For mergers of ABK scale or profile, the sample size is ZERO. They didn't get them pre-Brexit

🧵1/4
The CMA says it blocks about 5 per year. Likely fewer in the past.

Many merger blocks are not appealed as deals are abandoned.

Even in the ABK case, an appeal will only be possible IF the parties extend the contract (both parties look determined to do that though).

🧵2/4
Since 2010, the CMA has lost 33% of all merger appeals according to the Linklaters firm.

Given that the ABK decision is particularly hard to defend and the lawyers are the best, chances should be way above that average of all cases since 2010.

🧵3/4
Read 4 tweets
Florian Mueller Profile picture
May 22
Just had a helpful exchange with Luke and while the CMA is now waiting for feedback before finalizing its final order, the April 26 report is the final decision for appellate purposes. The Meta-Giphy appeal was based on a final report, too.

🧵1/6
So there could be news of an actual appellate filing this week, though not necessarily from the court, which takes time to process it.

Luke is a reliable source on timelines, was also right that the Business Secretary can intervene in a CMA case only at an early stage.

🧵2/6
We continue to disagree on other questions such as whether the CAT must always remand (though that disagreement is secondary as we do agree CAT can effectively destroy a CMA decision beyond repair).

I understand the CAT has previously interpreted "may" as not limiting.

🧵3/6
Read 6 tweets
Florian Mueller Profile picture
May 16
The public part of the UK parliamentary oversight hearing on CMA's work has finally started.

Chair says "we're gonna ask about some topical cases ... most widely covered news is Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard, please give us a quick summary"

🧵1/X
Sarah Cardell says decisions are taken by "independent" inquiry groups. But it is well-known that she very much pushed for the blockind decision. Also, "independent" doesn't necessarily mean that they make the right call.

🧵2/X
Mentions remedy proposed by Microsoft and now explains UK position: legislation required remedy to be comprehensive and effective. Well, same basically in the EU, but the Commission is not as unreasonable as the CMA, more pragmatic and consumer-focused.

🧵3/X
Read 27 tweets
Florian Mueller Profile picture
May 15
The @CMAgovUK's chairman and CEO have to testify tomorrow before the Business and Trade Committee of the UK Parliament on "the work of the Competition and Markets Authority".

UK lawmakers will ask questions, hopefully also related to #Microsoft-#ActivisionBlizzard!
#UnblockABK Image
I haven't talked to him in a while, but I actually know the Chief Whip of the Conservative Party in the UK Parliament personally. We worked together in 2007 on an EU competition policy issue related to soccer broadcasting rights, and won a parliamentary majority for an amendment.
Richard Corbett (Labour) accused Chris Heaton-Harris in an EP debate of having proposed the amendment at my "behest", which was wrong. We just had a meeting about an EU Parliament resolution on sports policy and realized we shared the same perspective on how to confront an issue.
Read 4 tweets
Florian Mueller Profile picture
May 12
Just watching the motion-to-dismiss preliminary injunction hearing in San Francisco. One of the class-action lawyers is now trying to address Judge Corley's doubts that there is irreparable harm to gamers if they need to play (in theory) CoD on Xbox instead of PlayStation.

🧵1/X twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The judge described #Microsoft's argument against the PI as follows: those gamers won't suffer harm now. By the time the harm occurs and they need to switch from Xbox to PS, they may have kids and no longer find time to play CoD.

🧵2/X
Judge Corley says the record does not support the notion of CoD being made exclusive to Microsoft's platforms in six months or so. Maybe further down the road, but she asks the class-action lawyer what he thinks the relevant period for a preliminary injunction is.

🧵3/X
Read 38 tweets
Florian Mueller Profile picture
Apr 2
The question came up what the #FTC would have to do to prevent the consummation #Microsoft's acquisition of #ActivisionBlizzard in a scenario where UK & EU cleared.

Due to a Twitter issue I have to post this thread tweet-by-tweet (publishing whole thread failed before).

🧵1/X
The FTC's in-house court can't prevent the consummation of the merger. The FTC needs to ask a United States District Court to enjoin (= bar) Microsoft.

It hasn't gone to such a federal court yet because prerequisite foreign approvals (especially UK & EU) are outstanding.

🧵2/X
Assuming UK approves in April, EU on May 22., the first question is whether the FTC will wait until the EC has formally decided (huge hurry then) or run to a federal court on the basis of an MLex or similar report that the EC is inclined to clear the deal.

🧵3/X
Read 10 tweets

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