Thread by @olliekarp

In today's #dailysoup, I'll introduce a Beijing-based think-tank, the South China Sea Probing Initiative or SCSPI (@SCS_PI).

It's known for providing news on the SCS dispute from China's perspective, which contain mostly pro-China peepotalking and some pro-Russia ones.

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Founded in 2019, the SCSPI is currently headed by Hu Bo from Peking University, along with two other so-called "academics" from prestigious Chinese universities.

One of its members is Anna Malindog-Uy, a Filipino vatnik x wumao who once hosted a Pandesal Forum with them.

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In SCSPI's "About me" page, the think-tank claims that "it recognises the strategic relevance of the SCS", "it understands the significance of differences through dialogue", and "it is not affiliated with anything".

However, when we dig deeper, it is a different story.

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Six of SCSPI's members are from either the People's Liberation Army (PLA) or the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which constitute the CCP's armed forces.

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Moreover, examples of visiting academics with close connections with the core members of the SCSPI (Hu Bo and Wu Shichun) are Lyle J. Goldstein and Mark Valencia.

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Goldstein is known for writing articles requesting US and its allies to "stop intervening in the Cross-Strait conflict" and accusing them for "provoking China in Taiwan".

Moreover, Goldstein is known for buying to the "NATO-started-the-war-in-Ukraine" peepotalk.

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Meanwhile, Mark Valencia's stance is somewhere along the lines of "we support China's stance in the SCS and the West is the one starting the conflict".

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Many SCSPI articles and social media posts engage in various forms of blaming other countries and anti-West peepotalking, including "the West is the one provoking the dispute", "the West has wrong perceptions on the dispute", and "the West invented the dispute".

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SCSPI's map of the South China Sea only shows the infamous Chinese "nine-dash line" over the SCS and the SCS islands illegally claimed by China, pretending as if "China owns the SCS".

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What is noticeable is that SCSPI, despite claiming to be "transparent", only shows the path of US warships passing through the SCS. They failed to show the path of PLA warships in the SCS.

SCSPI is like "We don't want you to know what our vessels are doing in the SCS".

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Unlike SCSPI, other sources like Ray Powell (@GordianKnotRay) manage to do the right thing and show transparency by showing the vessels of both the PLA and US allies (e.g. Philippines, etc.) as they roam around the SCS/WPS.

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When the number of Chinese militia vessels spiked in Thitu Island in early 2019 while the #Philippines was repairing a runway in the island, SCSPI claimed that the "AMTI's satellite images of the incident were wrong" and "the Philippines illegally occupied the island".

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After Duterte made a deal with Xi Jinping to allow Chinese fisherfolk to fish at the Recto Bank, SCSPI called him as "an honest man", while claiming that "the Scarborough Shoal is Chinese territory since 2012".

In reality, Duterte was just appeasing to Chinese demands.

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SCSPI fabricated a "complex network connecting AMTI to various Philippine think tanks with connections to the US government", accusing AMTI and the so-called "complex network" for "inventing the SCS crisis to maintain the VFA and mitigate Duterte's legacies".

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SCSPI tends to treat US forces as the "antagonists" and the Chinese forces as the "protagonists", especially when it peepotalks about "US forces entering air and maritime territory of the Chinese mainland".

In reality, the Chinese forces are the real "antagonists" here.

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SCSPI accused the US for "initiating grey-zone tactics against China through peepotalking, creating military alliances, and supporting freedom of navigation".

In reality, China is the aggressor doing grey-zone tactics in the SCS. Read more here:

https://twitter.com/olliekarp/status/1654762604278210560?s=20

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After the recent encounter between Chinese and Vietnamese ships in the SCS, the SCSPI reiterated the claim that "China has sovereignty x historical rights over Nanhai Zhudao".

Then, the SCSPI said "...Stop spreading rumors that China claims the sovereignty of SCS."

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Two months before Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022, SCSPI reiterated "China's claims that Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait are a part of Chinese territory", which constitutes the pro-China "Taiwan-is-a-part-of-China" peepotalking point.

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One month after Pelosi visited #Taiwan in August 2022, SCSPI, in a September 2022 article, accused US forces for "being too close and aggressive to the Taiwan Strait" and "entering Chinese territorial waters despite PLA forces telling them to leave", warning that...

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..."US forces tend to be involved in military accidents".

Moreover, SCSPI accused US forces for "politicising military operations in the Taiwan Strait and the SCS".

In reality, the US forces are just defending a vital global trading route from an aggressive China.

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After the 2021 Ayungin Shoal Incident, SCSPI accused the US for "practising double standards and threatening regional peace by protecting Philippines' claims over the shoal".

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When Philippine vessels confronted Chinese vessels at the Iroquois and Julian Felipe reefs, SCSPI accused the Philippines for "occupying the so-called West Philippine Sea". It claimed that "Chinese vessels have a reason to be in the reefs".

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SCSPI is also known for inaccurate mapping.

In early 2020, SCSPI spotted "suspected Vietnamese maritime militias present at Hainan", but Marine Traffic data suggested that there were no records of them in the area, while some of them happened at different times x places.

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Meanwhile, SCSPI also has some pro-Russia stints.

For example, SCSPI once shared Malindog-Uy's peepotalking remark on the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a "US-led NATO proxy war".

Moreover, Hu Bo once said in an interview that "the US is at ease in the Ukraine...

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...crisis, and it can choose its extent x method of intervention".

SCSPI may look "reliable x professional" cuz of its name, but from the inside, it contains many one-sided peepotalks.

Lesson learned: Don't judge a book by its cover!

https://twitter.com/olliekarp/status/1643196049883013120?s=20

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Support my work: buymeacoffee.com/olliekarp

Related entries:
Entry #52 (Pro-CCP peepotalking points) -

https://twitter.com/olliekarp/status/1650225950024667136?s=20

Entry #60 (South China Sea dispute) -

https://twitter.com/olliekarp/status/1654762604278210560?s=20

Entry #69 (Pandesal Forum) -

https://twitter.com/olliekarp/status/1659163615201742848?s=20

Shoutouts: @GordianKnotRay, @Talon_Haribon, @JonathanGOdom, @supbrow, @JMichaelCole1, @Aaron_MatthewIL

This is Entry #71 of the #dailysoup. Feel free to read the previous entries here 👇
bit.ly/thedailysoup

APPENDIX: SCSPI's so-called "expert research outputs" and anti-West peepotalking remarks even appeared at CCP-controlled news outlets like the infamous Global Times, the "Fox News of China".

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