Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
May 22 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the border into Russia and attacked the Grayvoron border station. The attack is conducted by the "Liberty of Russia" Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps. These units are mostly made up of Russian volunteers. 1/ Image
There is still only limited information or geolocatable visual material regarding the operation in the Grayvoron direction. The only thing that's confirmed is that the border station was attacked with multiple vehicles and fire support. 2/
The official Twitter & Telegram accounts of the Legion claim that Kozinka and Gora-Podol are under their control. This would mean the village of Glotovo is too. However, no further evidence has been posted yet. 3/ Image
According to Ukrainian officials, the goal of this mission is to establish a buffer zone in Russian territory in order to protect Ukrainian civilians. This is understandable, as Russia has continuously shelled Ukrainian villages from their side of the border. 4/
This attack is likely a part of the operations preceding the actual counterattack. In addition to the actions on the ground, the attack towards Grayvoron is an information operation. Ukraine controls the information space, while the Russians are left confused and disorganized. 5/
The questions on everyone's mind:

What border troops doing? What response force doing? What Russia doing?

Maybe we will know more in the evening. The Russian "Special Military Operation" is getting increasingly special, even after day 453. 6/6

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More from @emilkastehelmi

May 13
Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area have continued, and geolocated footage confirms that gains have been made. Ukraine has unblocked the Khromove road and is continuing forward. In the south, Russians have been pushed further from Ivanivske. 1/ 🪖 Image
In the Klischiivka area, things are starting to get difficult for the Russians. They still most likely hold parts of the forest southwest of Ivanivske, but the ability to supply it is getting continuously weaker. It is unclear if they have any presence left west of the canal. 2/
If the Ukrainians are able to cross the canal near the supply line, the spearhead lurking in the forest will most likely fall, as the Russians are forced to either retreat or face encirclement. This would mean the last potential threat to the road T0504 would be eliminated. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
May 11
Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they're attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/ Image
At the same time, both Russian and Ukrainian channels are reporting intensifying Ukrainian actions in multiple directions. Russian defence ministry says that the "general situation" is under control, which means that local situations might not be under control at all. 2/
Russian MoD also speaks of AFU actions in the direction of Maloilyinovka. Maloilyinovka is located in the northern part of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian gains might be greater than we know at the moment, and there is a possibility of counterattacks also inside the city of Bakhmut. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 23
Hersonin tilannekatsaus 🪖

Useat mediat ovat kertoneet Ukrainan ylittäneen Dnipron ja saavuttaneet joen toisen puolen. Asia on kuitenkin vähemmän dramaattinen kuin uutisoinnista voisi päätellä. Ukrainalaisjoukkoja on mennyt joen yli, mutta mitään sillanpääasemaa ei ole. 1/🧵 Image
Viimeisimpien videotodisteiden mukaan Venäjä on iskenyt seuraaviin kohteisiin Hersonin alueella (punaiset ympyrät). Videoilla ei näy suuria joukkokeskittymiä eikä edes erityisen suurta epäsuoran tulen käyttöä, vaan muutamia iskemiä. Todisteet laajemmasta ylimenosta puuttuvat. 2/ Image
Venäjän ja Ukrainan joukot operoivat Dnipron jokisuistossa jatkuvasti. Kyseessä on tiedusteluryhmien ja erikoisjoukkojen toimintaa, jossa ei lähtökohtaisesti pyritä varsinaiseen alueiden haltuunottoon. Tämä ei ole uutta, sitä on tapahtunut viime vuoden lopulta lähtien. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 21
Heavy fighting on the northern side of Bakhmut. In the Khromove road area, despite constant attacks and shelling, Russians have not made any significant progress for weeks.

Our #OSINT team acquired some satellite images which will explain why the attack has mostly halted. 1/🧵 Image
The main reason for the static situation are the extensive fortifications dug by the Ukrainians. They were well prepared to defend against the Russians, and they have held their positions even under the most difficult conditions, even longer than I initially expected. 2/ Image
The general situation in the area looks like this. There can be some slight errors, as some areas are constantly changing hands. Russians are pushing from all sides, and Ukraine is conducting small-scale counterattacks inside the city and the surrounding areas. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 28
Especially 🇩🇪 & 🇺🇸 argued that providing main battle tanks to Ukraine would "escalate the war".

It is disturbing how detached from reality this security analysis was. Russian propaganda and threats practically kept the western tanks out of Ukraine for months. 1/
After the first months it was clear that Russia did not have the capability to seriously escalate the war against western countries, no matter how heavily they would support Ukraine with equipment. Especially a conventional attack could be ruled out. 2/
Despite this, avoiding "escalation" became the main reason why certain weapon systems couldn't be delivered to Ukraine.

Too advanced rocket launchers or anti-air systems would escalate. Infantry fighting vehicles and MBTs would escalate. Fighter jets would escalate. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 18
A new encirclement theat may be rising in Donetsk oblast.

Russians have recently started making gains in the Avdiivka sector, about 50 km south of Bakhmut. The area has been relatively stable for months, but now the situation is becoming more difficult for the Ukrainians. 1/ 🧵
Avdiivka has been on the frontline for years, as fighting in the direction began already in 2014. The enemy was stopped then, and they have been stopped again and again during 2022. Despite heavy fighting, the Russians were unable to make significant progress for a long time. 2/
Months of fighting against constant Russian pressure have caused some cracks in the Ukrainian defense. In the northern side of Avdiivka, Ukraine lost Krasnohorivka and also likely Vesele. In the south, Russians are now attacking Sieverne. The gap is about 11 km wide. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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