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Mike
@MishGEA
May 22 • 6 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Contrary to Popular Myth, Brexit Was Not a Bad Decision and Did Not Fail

@dlacalle_IA @Nigel_Farage @menlobear

The Atlantic says "Britain is now paying the price for its decision to leave the European Union." I take the other side.

mishtalk.com/economics/cont… Image
Consider UK policy after Brexit: No tax cuts, no trade deal with the US or China, No dismantling of inept EU rules and regulations, no progress on things like artificial intelligence or energy.
This is not a failure of Brexit, it is a failure to take advantage of things possible without being tied to the EU.
#EU nannycrats are still trying to punish Google, Microsoft, and US technology companies. It take unanimous consent of 27 countries to do much of anything so its focus on AI is to throw up roadblocks.
Yep, the #Tories totally blew the aftermath of Brexit.

But those are policy errors that do not make Brexit unwise.
The UK would be crazy to want back in the EU.

Fortunately, "Once you have spotted opportunities for investment and drawn in investors, you are not going to reverse to a status-quo ante."

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More from @MishGEA

Mike
May 22
Home Prices Drop the Most in Eleven Years, New Listings Plunge

@tyillc @TheBubbleBubble @menlobear

Home prices are down 4.1 percent from a year ago. But that's not even a drop towards improved affordability.

mishtalk.com/economics/home… Image
National Trends

Median Price: The median U.S. home sale price fell 4.1% ($17,603) year over year in April to $408,031. That’s the biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms.
Listings: New listings dropped 26.1% year over year. That’s the largest decline on record aside from April 2020, when the onset of the pandemic brought the housing market to a halt. New listings were also at the lowest level on record aside from April 2020.
Read 10 tweets
Mike
May 22
The Market Now Believes in a Much Tougher Fed Until November

@menlobear @tyillc @Gary_Brode

The market has penciled in a possible hike in July, otherwise, little action until November. This is a much tougher forecast than the rate cut view on May 3.

mishtalk.com/economics/the-…
According to CME Fedwatch, the single most likely action by the Fed is a pause all the way until a rate cut at the November meeting. But the path isn't necessarily a flat one.
The lead chart shows the weighted average of market bets. The market has penciled in a rate hike in July then a cut in September.
Read 6 tweets
Mike
May 21
Biden Accuses Republicans of Extreme and Unacceptable Positions as Budget Optimism Fades

h/t @Johncomiskey77 @Stimpyz1 @DiMartinoBooth

Optimism fades regarding a deal to avoid a default on U.S. sovereign debt.

mishtalk.com/economics/bide…
Moody's Predictions

Moody’s Analytics predicts that a default would cost more than seven million jobs and cause the unemployment rate to move above over 8%.

The ratings company also predicts that the stock market would lose a fifth of its value. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
8 Million Jobs Lost!? Poof Just Like That?

I did not see Moody's analysis but I consider that position nonsensical.

Are businesses going to shut down or do mass layoffs if there is a one-day default? One week? twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Mike
May 20
30-Year Mortgage Rates Approaching 7 Percent Again, Housing Will Suffer

@menlobear @tyillc @TheBubbleBubble
The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.90 percent. For now, expect continued housing weakness.

mishtalk.com/economics/30-y…
Technical Pattern

The blue triangle-shaped pattern I outlined on the MND chart is either a symmetric continuation pattern (same slope) or a rising wedge, differing slopes.

If your crayon is fat enough, you can shift the blue lines to make a case either way. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Clear as Mud

There are alternate patterns one can draw such as a channel formed by the read and blue horizontal lines.

In short, the technical pattern outlook is "indecision"

Actions by the Fed and the market's view of the economy will determine what happens with rates. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 9 tweets
Mike
May 16
Retail Sales Rise in April but Price Inflation Accounts for All of the Increase

@menlobear @Gary_Brode @TheBubbleBubble

Nominal retail sales rose 0.4% in April. But consumers had to spend extra money to get the same amount of goods as in March.

mishtalk.com/economics/reta…
Retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 billion, up 0.4 percent from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent above April 2022. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The key phrase is "adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes."

Consumers have to spend more money just to buy the same amount of goods and services as last month.
Read 6 tweets
Mike
May 15
Hoot of the Day: The UAW Demands a "Just Transition" to Electric Vehicles

@EnergyPhilFlynn @tyillc @Gary_Brode
The big US automakers cannot turn a profit on EVs anytime soon. So guess what.

mishtalk.com/economics/hoot… Image
Tesla is in front partially because it was first. But it's also in a great position because of cheap money by the Fed, subsidies on which only it gained, and energy tax credits.
Thank the Fed for the cheap money.

Thank Biden for the subsidies, regulations, energy credits and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Read 5 tweets

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