Iranian leaders are saber rattling, threatening #Afghanistan with a range of hostile actions, including perhaps war. Why? They argue that #Iran is not receiving water from Afghanistan that it should be getting under a 1973 treaty between the two countries.
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Taliban authorities are being surprisingly restrained and statesmanlike over the issue. They acknowledged the treaty while arguing that the lower amount of water is due to drought and climate change.
They have expressed sympathy for the difficulties and water shortage places on civilians in Iran in Iran, while pointing out that their own civilians are experiencing the same.
What should be done? Since both countries remain committed to the 1973 Treaty, they should follow the remedies envisaged in the treaty itself for circumstances of disagreement.
Indeed, the Treaty stipulates that the water amount provided can be less in some years due to drought or force majeure and that in the event of a dispute, the 2 countries should:
1. Try bilateral diplomatic engagement to find a solution.
2. Make use of the good offices of a third party
3. If neither step works, then the issue should be submitted to arbitration.
None of these have been tried yet. The Iranian regime must stop Saber rattling.
Here is the treaty: (1/2)
[End] (2/2)
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Pakistan’s Army Chief continues to trample over democratic red lines. Now he has decided to try civilians in a military court that he will constitute. The name for this is military dictatorship, and it’s brazenly unconstitutional. #Pakistan
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There was a brief time, after the tragic terrorist attack on the army public school in Peshawar, when the constitution was amended (23rd Amendment) to allow for military trial of civilians. But that amendment expired in 2019, per its sunset clause.
To again try civilians in a military court, the constitution will have to be amended once more, this time with no discernible justification.
I was concerned for #Pakistan before, but a recent speech by the Army Chief has led me to believe that things are truly dire. His closed-door angry tirade to senior officers in Sialkot has been reliably shared with me. The entire speech was alarming but two points stand out:(1/6)
First, he threatened the wives and children of his critics. The May 9 violence was not a good thing and should be transparently investigated, but that is no excuse for threatening harm to innocent family members of retired officers who may have participated. (2/6)
He also used gutter language in talking about those he regards as his enemies. (3/6)
There are fragile signs of hope in Pakistan: The Supreme Court decision yesterday and the Islamabad High Court's today ordering Imran Khan's release, and growing opposition within the military to the heavy-handed over-reach of some.
[Thread] #Pakistan#ImranKhanArrested
Perhaps disaster can be averted, but only if 2 things happen.
Army Chief Munir needs to resign, and elections must be posted for a specific date. Without the first, the second is unlikely. Without these steps Pakistan's economic, political and security crisis will only worsen.
General Munir has mishandled his job and alienated the public. He also has lost the support of many senior Pakistanis. Some resented him from the beginning because of the unfortunate manner of his appointment as army chief.
There is growing fear that Imran Khan might be killed/assassinated while in custody. Imran Khan expressed this concern to the judge in charge in the court today.
[Thread] #Pakistan#ImranKhanArrested
The situation in Pakistan is deteriorating badly, affecting people's lives but also undermining the unity and cohesion of state institutions, including the armed forces.
One indication of this is the participation of retired officers in attacking the homes of state security leaders believed to have ordered the very undignified arrest operation against a former Prime Minister and the country's most popular leader.
The arrest of Imran Khan is deplorable and will have far-ranging consequences. I condemn it in the strongest terms.
[Thread] #Pakistan#ImranKhanArrest
It’s painful to watch a country so rich in potential, with an ancient heritage of culture, natural resources, an entrepreneurial spirit and hard-working people, repeatedly be thrown into chaos by its own dysfunctional elites—civilian and military—with some exceptions.
How sad for a country that defines its national purpose by its Islamic identity, to present the world with this spectacle while falling further and further behind India on many indicators of a successful society.
A few days ago, the @washingtonpost headlined on its front page that "Afghanistan has become a terrorism staging ground again." They sourced this judgment to a leaked Pentagon document. However, this sensationalist hyperbole is unwarranted.
[Thread] washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
An upswing in terrorism from #Afghanistan had been one of the fears associated with the US withdrawal. But that has not happened.
Al Qaida has declined significantly and is currently at its weakest in Afghanistan. In regard to ISIS-K, the Taliban regard them as their mortal enemies and have carried out ongoing deadly attacks against them, killing many of their leaders.