Speaking at our event @DAcemogluMIT says history tells us that there is nothing automatic about technological progress leading to rising shared prosperity. Other forces are need to shape the change we want to see. resolutionfoundation.org/events/shaping…
@DAcemogluMIT We (@DrDaronAcemoglu & @baselinescene ) don't have the answers to how we can shape the AI revolution (and don't believe anyone who says they do). But we do know that workers need a voice in shaping the revolution if its to deliver shared prosperity....
Today’s migration statistics confirm that post-Brexit migration change has been big – but some of the change is different to what many of us expected... summary 🧵 from RF's @charliejmccurdy ⬇️
The latest migration data for the year ending December 2022 showed that overall net migration rose to 606,000 – driven primarily by non-EU migration (662,000).
Among non-EU migrants, the most common reasons for coming to the UK were to study (39%) to work (25%) or for humanitarian reasons (19%). The recent rise has been driven by unique factors, such as the Ukraine war and the end of Covid-19 restrictions (more students arrived).
Today's @ONS inflation data shows CPI inflation for April falling 1.4 percentage points to 8.7%, the largest fall in more than 30 years. But this was a smaller fall than the market and @bankofengland expected, due to rising core inflation and continued high food inflation. 🧵
The 1.4ppt drop in CPI inflation on the month was driven by a huge (and expected) fall in energy prices as the big rise a year ago drops out of the annual calculation. This is six times the average absolute change in CPI inflation.
Why was the fall so much smaller than BoE and market expectations? We can get some clues from the BoE forecast where services and food inflation contributions were stronger than expected. But other goods prices are also proving stickier than expected.
What lies in store for next week's Budget? When it comes to the economic outlook, our analysis finds good & bad news for Jeremy Hunt. The good news? Lower wholesale energy prices & higher GDP. A recession is still forecast but is likely to be the shallowest one since the 1950s🧵
However, despite the good news on energy costs, typical household working-age household disposable incomes are still on track to fall by 2% in 2022-23 and 4% n 2022-23 - a simply huge living standards squeeze...
The Chancellor will likely use some of this additional fiscal firepower to address cost-of-living pressures. Extending the £2,500 level of the Energy Price Guarantee for three months would avoid a 20% rise in household energy bills from April, with a one-off cost of around £3bn.
Kicking off our event @TorstenBell notes that the mood music is very much a 'back to normal' Budget with no crises (external or self-inflicted) to respond to. But the economy is far from 'back to normal' for the public, as their pay packets and incomes are still falling....
@TorstenBell Kicking off her presentation @carapacitti starts with the good news - lower wholesale energy prices & higher GDP. A recession in 2023 is still forecast, but it's likely to be the shallowest one since the 1950s....
@TorstenBell@carapacitti Despite good news on energy, incomes will fall further. Typical working-age household disposable incomes are still on track to fall by six per vent this year and next - a simply huge living standards squeeze....
Economic inactivity among all adults has risen by 830,000 since the start of the pandemic, with more than three-quarters of this rise among people aged 50 and above. But is this really the right group to focus on when it comes to tackling economic inactivity? 🧵
The cohort of older workers who have left the labour market since the start of the pandemic have disproportionately come from high-paying, professional industries; many of these adults will be living comfortably, and government policy is unlikely to prompt them to ‘un-retire’.
More generally, early retirees tend to be from wealthy households: between 2016 and 2020, one-in-ten adults aged 50-59 from households in the highest wealth quintile were inactive due to retirement, compared to just one per cent of adults from the lowest wealth quintile.
Evening thread: Five key takeaways from our new report, which explores labour force participation in the UK... Takeaway #1 - there was a big rise in inactivity during the pandemic - and it was people aged 50 and above who were the most affected..
#2 - Focusing on inactivity among older workers probably isn't the best plan (even if the Government seems keen to pursue this line). Our report finds older workers are unlikely to want to ‘unretire’, especially if they are financially secure.
#3 - Instead, there are other groups who could benefit from support in finding and maintaining employment, Just 50% of low-income women aged 25-54 were in work in 2017-2019, compared to 94% of high-income women the same age.