@HassanSMohamud and some heads of the FMS have attempted to overthrow Somalia's flimsy system in their favour systematically by dissolving the constitution and altering the parliamentarian and the powersharing systems. Thread 🧵 1/5
A commission is working to review and finalise the constitution overseen by selected parliamentarians. Therefore, any amendment had to go through them and follow the process outlined in Article 132(1, 2, and 5(a-f)). Hence, the five elders have no role to play. 2/5
Moreover, HSM sought to nullify Puntland's historic universal suffrage. He also wanted to seize the spotlight the Puntland’s triumphant week, turn away the world’s spotlight from it and give lip service to the #SSC while extending their terms. 3/5
HSM also tries to overshadow @HESaidADeni‘s success history by enticing him with ten months of extension. He also tried to do Madoobe at the expense of the people of Jubbaland. But the question is, what would be the added value that HSM’s extension does to the winner Deni? 4/5
Make no mistake: Somalia is subject to UN Security Council Chapter VII. This is because mistrust & societal cleavages have led to protracted intrawars, which the UNSC deemed necessary to decentralise until trustworthy institutions are founded. There'll be no one-man process. 5/5
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The venue planned to be selective, censored who should speak; the time to talk and attempted to direct the discourse on technical issues. But thanks to many inquirers: Qali Farah, Abdi Hooshoow, Noor Abdi, Garad and Cirro, who busted & exposed the disinformation factory.
3/9
Areas exposed: 1) in their justification of the presidential, MA has explained how tedious the bicameral chambers & the FMS are for the government & president to take quick decisions & execute agreements quickly. “We are no longer in a post-conflict. We need a vibrancy.”
Somalia’s statebuilding was established to start with city-states based on consensual and decentralised until trustable institutions could be found. The IC supports decentralisation to avoid the resumption of conflicts. 🧵1/6
Notably, institutions that are waiting to be established to complete the debt relief, as mentioned by @AHHirad, include:
—completion of the provisional constitution,
—equitable resource sharing,
—defining intergovernmental fiscal relations or authority over fiscal resources. 2/6
Debt relief, extraction of resources and retaking of loans are in the pipeline. However, this could be a curse, which is why many people in the PL government have shown concern. 3/6
This Twitter Space had baffled with two theories: Constitutionalism and the social contract. Constitutions, according to IR, are of two types: flexible and rigid. Thread 🧵 1/11
Consensual governments usually are federal and have a division of power between the central and regional governments; have a solid bicameral legislature; a neutral arbiter who can resolve conflicts, and a strong judicial review uing a rigid constitution. 2/11
Majoritarian governments (unitary or central) in which power supremacy of the Constitution is not guaranteed, as in the United Kingdom; division in the judiciary may not be independent and may be unicameral, as in China, use a flexible constitution. 3/11
While the government of @HassanSMohamud focuses on the fringes in the fight against Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab displays its strength to the residents of Mogadishu. May Allah forbid, but the government strategy appears to be adrift and doomed. Thread 🧵 1/10
The thread examines how Al-Shabaab tightens its grip on the people of Mogadishu and uses the recent contention between Al-Shabaab and minister Al-Adaala as an example of how the terrorist group tries to trample on the knees of those who are purportedly fighting them. 2/10
This is one of the two properties owned by the deputy minister of information for Somalia, Al-Adaala, a three-story building situated at the intersection of Arwa Itka in Mogadishu, which is the centre of this thread. 3/10
My thoughts on the election timeline and reflecting on post-election analysis. A thread 🧵1/39
of two parts 1/25 followed by another 1/14 in the response.
1/25
Somalia was in an election fervour for more than a year, which marred public cohesion.
2/25
It divided the country into two groups with previously existing cleavages: a public camp dubbed NN, which stands for Nabad&Nolol (peace and life), versus national elites, including aspirants of the presidential candidates.
3/25
The former was unorganised public individuals from inside and outside the country who sensed the hope of a Somali state returning to the world stage.
1/16
The Jubaland issue has geopolitical and local-level conflicts during the 17 September agreement era.
Nothing changed, and here is the tally.
The country to country-level: the impasse at Jubbaland...
2/16
existed between #Somalia and #Kenya since Kenya's unilateral invention to Somalia, aka "Operation Linda Nchi." It also affects superpowers courting HoA and regional interests. This might be the reason why many #Somalis lost their confidence with the likes of @KFosterFCDO.
3/16
On the face of it, by using current #Jubbaland admin as a fig leaf, #Kenya pursued "off-shore oil and gas deposits …harvesting and export of charcoal have become a particularly lucrative industry (which the] UNSC resolution 2036 (2012" banned trading it (see the link 👇).