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Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Sep 26, 2023

🇺🇦 successes on the sea and in Crimea in demolishing the Russian fleet is a sign of learned lessons from the summer counteroffensive, analytics of @TheStudyofWar think.

Ukraine's strategy to maintain pressure along the entire frontline against Russian forces is proving effective. This approach, pinning down Russia's elite units in Bakhmut and enabling advancements in Zaporizhia Oblast, has been crucial, forcing 🇷🇺 units to reposition and thwarting the creation of a strategic 🇷🇺 reserve🧵

Ukraine's innovative tactics in the Black Sea are hindering the operations of 🇷🇺 fleet and challenging its forces in Crimea.

By diminishing naval superiority, Ukraine is reshaping strategic dynamics and making the 🇷🇺 military's stance in Crimea increasingly indefensible.

(Video: test of the 🇺🇦-made UUV, underwater drone)

Unlike the other partners US helped in a military way, Ukraine demonstrates a profound understanding of its operational environment, enemy, and its own capabilities, and adapts continuously.

This is an interesting author's conclusion, emphasizing the importance for the US to support a partner who not only contributes but also leads.

Read 5 tweets

Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Sep 21, 2023

Praising Putin or protesting against the invasion of Ukraine in the center of Moscow, Russians equally suffer from internal issues with the healthcare services quality, unemployment, and communal service pricing. The recent survey by @OpenMindsInst revealed such attitudes.

As we previously concluded, Russian society is polarised and can be segmented to 4 groups based on 15 criteria, from mental well-being and age to the attitudes toward the war against Ukraine.

A new report regards the common and diverse in thoughts different clusters of Russians have about their present and future 🧵

Short overview of 4 clusters of Russians:

◽️ Hawks (36%): Proud & aligned with govt;

◽️ Loyalists (39%): Support govt but rather as a habit seek varied info;

◽️ Moderates (19%): Discontented yet passive; focus on personal life;

◽️ Liberals (8%): Oppose regime, trust non-state info, vocal about stance.

Healthcare quality remains a top concern for 57% of Russians in their local area. Unemployment and communal services pricing & quality accounted not far less.

However, top personal problems are economic: prices increase bother 84% of respondents. Interestingly, the concerns related straight to the depreciation of the ruble are less pervasive.

Read 8 tweets

Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Sep 15, 2023

Like any other, Russian society is a complex & heterogeneous object of social reality.

6 months ago @OpenMindsInst analysed Russians by 15 criteria, including the attitudes toward the war and current gov, and divided them to 5 clusters.

There were authoritarian Hawks & blindly loyal to the gov & its policies Loyalists as the most pro-war clusters.

And, in reverse, Liberals, actively protesting the regime in Russia, & Moderates, who had modest levels of anti-war convictions.

Uncertain cluster speaks for itself, having average rates of support for the war but being unsure if Russia is moving in the right or wrong direction.

Recently, we did a follow-up study to see what has changed🧵

Hawks account 24%, marking a slight change from the previous study at 23.5%.

Strong believers in Russia's direction, these Russians exhibit deep trust in gov institutions, from the President to the media (which they avidly consume).

Interestingly, while they feel like political agents, Hawks rarely express their political will through any legal means.

They define themselves first and foremost through their national identity: Hawks see more meaning in Russia's state than in their personal life compared to other clusters👇

As a result of this, they place great importance on the Russian position and image on the global arena.

Loyalists are similar to Hawks but less pronounced in their pro-gov stance, younger, & less financially secure. This time, they are 34% compared to 25% 6 months ago.

These Russians are 'my country right or wrong loyal' trope, evidently aligning with the 🇷🇺 regime's direction, yet more tempered than the Hawks👇

At least, their better English skills make Loyalists more open to international information.

Read 5 tweets

Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Sep 11, 2023

"The USSR was a peaceful country unprepared for WW2," says the Russian propaganda myths about the German invasion of the USSR.

Nowadays we know the USSR and the Third Reich were partners on the eve of WW2, signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact secret protocol in August 1939 that partitioned Central and Eastern Europe between them.

But what are the other signs the "unexpected German invasion" is a fake?🧵

The Soviet propaganda was working on creating a suspense atmosphere, supporting the narrative of the USSR being surrounded by hostile countries and enemies, jealous of socialists.

When Stalin came to power, preparations for war became real. Importantly, preparations for offensive warfare.

In 2 years before Germany's attack, 125 new military divisions were formed in the USSR.

They received 7,000 tanks, almost 18,000 airplanes, up to 30,000 сannons, and over 52,000 mortars.

The Molotov defense line was built.

Read 4 tweets

Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Sep 1, 2023

The Dulles' plan is perhaps Russia's most famous conspiracy theory. Allegedly created by CIA Director Allen Dulles in 1950-60th, the plan "aimed to degrade the USSR’s youth morally and socially."

While some ordinary people believe in it, what's concerning is that it's also taken seriously by politicians and public figures🧵

The plan’s roots are from the Soviet novel "Eternal Call" by Anatoli Ivanov. His narrative, embedded with anti-Semitic subtexts, later got misconstrued as the conspiracy theory we know today.

The Dulles Plan could also have been inspired by Dostoevsky's "Demons", where the revolutionary Verkhovensky proposed to encourage alcoholism and other vices to weaken potential resistance to the new revolutionary dictatorship.

The Dulles Plan also resembles the fake "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," which allegedly describes the "real" Jewish plan to seize power in Russia.

Life imitates these pieces of "art" in Russia, especially in politics. In 2020, Russia's permanent representative to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, cited the Dulles Plan as an actual source in one of his articles.

Post-USSR collapse, the theory became even more widespread. Some Russian newspapers in 1992 started alleging that global figures, from Napoleon to Kennedy, plotted against Russia.

Allen Dulles, a pivotal figure in the US intelligence history, never conducted the "plan" attributed to him. Yet, its mention in Russian media has grown exponentially. From being a fringe theory in the 90s, under Putin, it's been mainstreamed by propagandists & senior officials.

The Dulles Plan posits the USSR's collapse on the CIA's alleged intent to erode its "traditional values.”

Read 5 tweets

Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi

@s_hnizdovskyi

Aug 26, 2023

At the BRICS Summit, ended yesterday, Russia, seeking to mitigate its international isolation, along with China, championed the expansion of BRICS with 6 new countries.

Yet, the South African authorities complied with international principles, which urge to arrest Putin, so Russia’s president's virtual presence underscored Russia's distance from the community. Especially as other BRICS nations maintain ties with Western democracies.

Still, during the summit in Johannesburg, Russian propaganda was portraying BRICS as a revamped UN without Western influence, positioning Russia at the forefront.

Three more key messages of 🇷🇺 propaganda👇

At the BRICS summit, the Kremlin message was clear: "Isolation is broken forever."

Despite Putin's virtual attendance, 🇷🇺 officials & media painted it as a triumph against the US efforts to isolate Russia.

MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, likened Putin's online participation to India's president leaving the meeting room for the to personally monitor the arrival of the Indian lunar station.

So for Zakharova, an arrest warrant from the Int Court of Justice and the conquest of the moon are equally valid reasons to be absent.

Amidst geopolitical shifts, Russian propaganda pushed the narrative: "BRICS is a more influential version of the G7."

Highlighting BRICS's expansion, Moscow emphasizes its scale over the G7 in terms of population, land, and oil reserves.

However, the stark contrasts between BRICS nations, from culture to ongoing tensions, like between India and China, suggest its primary role remains as a consultative platform rather than a cohesive bloc.

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