1/ THREAD: Our @CNA_org Russia Studies Program has a new report out - we (@sambendett and @jeffaedmonds) examine Russia's use of uncrewed systems in the Ukraine War. You can find it at this link - our main points highlighted below: cna.org/reports/2023/0…
2/ We examine Russia's use of military drones and the emerging mass-scale application of commercial quadcopters - and how such technology impacts military operations.
3/ We also examined how the Russian defense industry is or is not responding to the challenge of mass-producing cheap and attritable UAVs, and look at the impact of Russian volunteers in developing TTPs and CONOPS for small commercial drones.
4/ We also look at Russia's ongoing dependence on Iranian loitering drones to continue operations against Ukraine, and how such capacity compares with Russia's own loitering munitions technologies.
5/ When our paper went through revisions and reviews, the DJI quadcopter was the go-to tactical solution - yet over the past several months, the FPV-type drone has emerged as the key tactical UAV system employed by both sides.
6/ What did we consider as we wrote the paper? Three things. First - the absolutely rapid and explosive growth of commercial drone technology that makes it cheap, easy and affordable to acquire commercial-type quadcopters and FPV drones in very large numbers.
7/ Second: the Russian military’s acquisition cycle and its research/development cycle have not caught up with commercial technology - the Russian MOD remains a very large, bureaucratic, top-heavy and overburdened apparatus that takes a long while to move in the right direction.
8/ And third: the unprecedented degree of openness on social media like Telegram has enabled an open and candid discourse on how the Russian military conducted this invasion, and how volunteer organizations stepped up to assist the forces.
9/ Our paper highlights the steady evolution from expensive, stand-alone uncrewed platforms towards cheap, mass and attritable use of different drone types for greater battlefield effect - something we see daily on both sides of the front.
10/ We also highlight Russia's development and use of ground and maritime uncrewed systems, something that does not get a lot of coverage, given an extensive spotlight on UAV use.
12/ For this and more @CNA_org reports, please check out this link - and see our analysis of Russia-China military cooperation, Russian air power, and other key topics. cna.org/our-research/o…
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1/ As the Russian government and its president try to downplay the significance of this drone attack on Moscow, a new realty is emerging where the drone mission success is measured by its ability to actually strike intended targets while the constant appearance of such UAVs over… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ In other words, the Russian government and many Telegram-based commentators are discussing adversarial drone presence overhead as something to be expected, without resorting to panic, and to worry only if such drone attacks cause significant - not minor - damage.
3/ That's not to say that there isn't a concern - there is a lot of concern, but also a nearly fatalistic recognition that Ukrainian drone presence over Russia can become so commonplace as to cause concern only in specific cases where they cause significant destruction.
1/ Russian Telegram space is speculating over the type of drone that attacked Moscow today. Given the available images, and the fact that the drones look like the ones that struck Krasnodar earlier, some are saying its the new "Bober" kamikaze UAV. focus.ua/voennye-novost…
2/ "Bober" was unveiled two weeks ago (some were bult last year) and is a self-initiated drone project by blogger under the name "Lachen." Its possible that the government took over this project to mass-produce these drones. More information is needed to draw final conclusions.
3/ This attack may have included other commercial drones that were repurposed for combat - both sides apparently use Chinese-made Mugin-5 which has a long range (this time it wasn't involved). They key to such drones is range, and the ability to fly through Russia's AD/EW.
1/ A big #AI claim from the Russian military - RIA state media notes that S-350 Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system "performed fully automated detection, tracking and destruction of several Ukrainian aircraft and UAVs without operator participation."
2/ "The automated mode was implemented on the principle that an operator does not cancel the decisions made by the complex' AI within the framework of ongoing air combat situation - the operator simply did not interfere in the operation of the complex, thus confirming the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/ Somewhat similar claims were made before by the Russian MOD - especially about RB109A Bilyna EW system was apparently tested in an AI mode in 2018-19. Back then, the MOD claimed that AI analyzed all combat elements and data points to give an optimal outcome to the operator.
1/ QUICK THREAD: This weekend, Russian volunteers organized an EW-CUAS meet outside St Petersburg to test DIY solutions against small drones and UAVs. Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels covered the event, looking for solutions that can be used in Ukraine. t.me/labppsh/477
2/ The testing involved direction finding and CUAS rifles. Direction finding involved determining the (drone) bearing point and putting it on the map, with the drone search carried out in a circle at the height of 100 meters and 1000-1200 meters range. t.me/labppsh/477
1/ QUICK THREAD on the continued advice given by Russian volunteers to drone and quadcopter operators. Translated list below. t.me/xronikabpla/45…
2/ 1) It is necessary to launch the drone at a distance of 100-200 meters from the main combat group; 2) It is necessary to land the drone behind the combat group (also at a distance of 100 to 200 meters); 3) While the drone is flying to target...
3/ ...in no case should it climb higher, the quadcopter should fly at the lowest possible altitude - thus, the impact of commercial “jammers” is reduced, and the drone is more difficult to notice; 4) It is necessary to record a video of drone operation via the “phone screen… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1/ THREAD: How does the Russian government plan to further adapt to sanctions? What policies and initiatives are in the works? The Kremlin has approved the "Concept of Technological Development until 2030." Main points below on what this means for Russia's tech development.
2/ The plan spells out that by 2030, Russia has three key goals: "achieving technological sovereignty, transition to innovation-oriented economic growth, and technological support for the sustainable development of production systems."
3/ The document was developed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, who noted that "today (Russia is) on the verge of a fundamentally new stage in nation's tech development - for the first time in 25 years, we have an independent technology policy."