Job openings edged up in April 2023, but remain close to their level two years ago (in April 2021) and significantly lower than in the height of labor market churn in the pandemic recovery. Layoffs and discharges decreased in April while hires held steady and quits softened.
Job openings have generally been decreasing over the last year, slowly but steadily moving closer to their pre-pandemic levels, though clearly not there yet. Much of the elevated rates we've seen may have been because of the increased labor market churn and not net new demand.
After increasing in March, layoffs dropped in April closer to its February level. Hires held steady in April, while quits continued to edge down.
Layoffs still remain significantly lower than their prepandemic levels while hires and quits are still elevated.
Last month, it appeared that the labor market might be cooling given the rising layoffs in March, but job growth in April and the drop in layoffs in today's report suggest the labor market remains steady and is not rapidly cooling.
Labor market story is strong overall for May with some notable survey divergence:
Payroll data solid
- payroll employment increased a healthy 339k
- nominal wage growth continues to decelerate
Household data mixed
- rise in unemployment (+.9pp Black unemp)
- drop in employment
The job report for May shows notable employment gains in education and health services, professional and business services, government, and leisure and hospitality in May.
Gains in both leisure and hospitality and government employment are particularly welcome news as they remain the sectors with the largest job shortfalls since before the pandemic. Those deficits are steadily shrinking month after month.
The labor market continues strong in February 2023, payroll jobs up 311,000. Prime-age EPOPs back to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate up along with labor force participation.
After increasing 504,000 in January, payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February. The most jobs added were in the leisure and hospitality sector, up 105,000, while jobs were lost in the information sector, down 25,000.
The gains in leisure and hospitality continue to chip away at the leisure and hospitality shortfall since millions of jobs were lost in the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality is now down 410,000 jobs since February 2020.
Sharp drop in job openings according to the latest #JOLTS data from the #BLS.
Job openings fell 10% between July and August 2022, from 11.2 million to 10.1 million.
The largest fall in job openings were in health care and social assistance, other services, and retail trade.
Other topline indicators in the #JOLTS report saw little to no change in August. The hires rate was unchanged as separations ticked up slightly, due in part to a mild increase in the layoffs and discharges rate while the quits rate held steady.
The level of hires increased slightly from 6.2 to 6.3 million (mostly rounding) while the level of quits ticked up (4.0 to 4.1 million) and layoffs and discharges ticked up (1.4 to 1.5 million). To be clear these changes are all pretty small and display general series volatility.
June 2022 #JOLTS data is out. Job openings fell sharply, now four months of declines, and yet, job openings are still higher than a year ago and significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Hires and separation rates both ticked down slightly while quits and layoffs were unchanged.
Slight correction. Job openings are down each month since March's series high. That's three months in a row of declines. Please pardon the error in counting months when it's now August and the data are for June.
Mild reductions in hires, layoffs, and quits levels reported in June as the hires rate ticks down slightly and layoffs and quits rates hold steady. Layoffs continue to be low in historical terms and high levels of quits signal workers seeking (and finding) better opportunities.
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down. bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.
White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.