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Samuel Bendett Profile picture
@sambendett
May 31 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ As the Russian government and its president try to downplay the significance of this drone attack on Moscow, a new realty is emerging where the drone mission success is measured by its ability to actually strike intended targets while the constant appearance of such UAVs over… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ In other words, the Russian government and many Telegram-based commentators are discussing adversarial drone presence overhead as something to be expected, without resorting to panic, and to worry only if such drone attacks cause significant - not minor - damage.
3/ That's not to say that there isn't a concern - there is a lot of concern, but also a nearly fatalistic recognition that Ukrainian drone presence over Russia can become so commonplace as to cause concern only in specific cases where they cause significant destruction.
4/ The May 30 attack is spurring a lot of debate about Russia's air defense, EW and CUAS abilities in general, and around Moscow in particular. Many Telegram-based commentators are pointing out their "I told you so" arguments that Ukraine will start retaliating with UAVs starting… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
5/ This "acceptance" is a product of Ukraine's sustained drone counter-attacks against Russia's numerous targets. Some commentators are saying Russia is not ready psychologically, hinting that at some point the country must accept this new reality.
6/ What's to be expected? A lot of public activity, followed by an attempt to invest heavily in domestic CUAS technologies, and to purchase even more of those already on the market. In this case, Rostec emerges as one of the beneficiaries of this regality, given its CUAS/EW… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
7/ This may be matched by heavier legislative measures aimed at controlling drone activity in the country, while making exceptions for some drone manufacturers/testers over others. Again, some clear winners may be those companies closer to the Kremlin (i.e. Rostec).
8/ The Russian government is currently pledging support for the domestic drone industry, aiming to build it into a powerful economic force. This is certainly an area to watch if drone attacks become more common across Russia the longer Moscow is staying in Ukraine.

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More from @sambendett

Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 30
1/ THREAD: Our @CNA_org Russia Studies Program has a new report out - we (@sambendett and @jeffaedmonds) examine Russia's use of uncrewed systems in the Ukraine War. You can find it at this link - our main points highlighted below: cna.org/reports/2023/0… Image
2/ We examine Russia's use of military drones and the emerging mass-scale application of commercial quadcopters - and how such technology impacts military operations. ImageImageImage
3/ We also examined how the Russian defense industry is or is not responding to the challenge of mass-producing cheap and attritable UAVs, and look at the impact of Russian volunteers in developing TTPs and CONOPS for small commercial drones. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 30
1/ Russian Telegram space is speculating over the type of drone that attacked Moscow today. Given the available images, and the fact that the drones look like the ones that struck Krasnodar earlier, some are saying its the new "Bober" kamikaze UAV. focus.ua/voennye-novost… Image
2/ "Bober" was unveiled two weeks ago (some were bult last year) and is a self-initiated drone project by blogger under the name "Lachen." Its possible that the government took over this project to mass-produce these drones. More information is needed to draw final conclusions. Image
3/ This attack may have included other commercial drones that were repurposed for combat - both sides apparently use Chinese-made Mugin-5 which has a long range (this time it wasn't involved). They key to such drones is range, and the ability to fly through Russia's AD/EW.
Read 15 tweets
Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 29
1/ A big #AI claim from the Russian military - RIA state media notes that S-350 Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system "performed fully automated detection, tracking and destruction of several Ukrainian aircraft and UAVs without operator participation." Image
2/ "The automated mode was implemented on the principle that an operator does not cancel the decisions made by the complex' AI within the framework of ongoing air combat situation - the operator simply did not interfere in the operation of the complex, thus confirming the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/ Somewhat similar claims were made before by the Russian MOD - especially about RB109A Bilyna EW system was apparently tested in an AI mode in 2018-19. Back then, the MOD claimed that AI analyzed all combat elements and data points to give an optimal outcome to the operator.
Read 5 tweets
Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 28
1/ QUICK THREAD: This weekend, Russian volunteers organized an EW-CUAS meet outside St Petersburg to test DIY solutions against small drones and UAVs. Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels covered the event, looking for solutions that can be used in Ukraine. t.me/labppsh/477 Image
2/ The testing involved direction finding and CUAS rifles. Direction finding involved determining the (drone) bearing point and putting it on the map, with the drone search carried out in a circle at the height of 100 meters and 1000-1200 meters range. t.me/labppsh/477 ImageImageImage
3/ CUAS rifles used during the competition. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 26
1/ QUICK THREAD on the continued advice given by Russian volunteers to drone and quadcopter operators. Translated list below. t.me/xronikabpla/45… ImageImageImage
2/ 1) It is necessary to launch the drone at a distance of 100-200 meters from the main combat group; 2) It is necessary to land the drone behind the combat group (also at a distance of 100 to 200 meters); 3) While the drone is flying to target...
3/ ...in no case should it climb higher, the quadcopter should fly at the lowest possible altitude - thus, the impact of commercial “jammers” is reduced, and the drone is more difficult to notice; 4) It is necessary to record a video of drone operation via the “phone screen… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 8 tweets
Samuel Bendett Profile picture
May 26
1/ THREAD: How does the Russian government plan to further adapt to sanctions? What policies and initiatives are in the works? The Kremlin has approved the "Concept of Technological Development until 2030." Main points below on what this means for Russia's tech development. Image
2/ The plan spells out that by 2030, Russia has three key goals: "achieving technological sovereignty, transition to innovation-oriented economic growth, and technological support for the sustainable development of production systems."
3/ The document was developed by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, who noted that "today (Russia is) on the verge of a fundamentally new stage in nation's tech development - for the first time in 25 years, we have an independent technology policy."
Read 17 tweets

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