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#1
@ericnuttall was on @marketcall.
- Huge divergence between narrative vs reality for #Oil
- Inventories tells you health of oil is strong
- China/India with record demand
- Refiners see strong oil demand
- Airlines are close to record summer demand
@ericnuttall was on @marketcall.
- Huge divergence between narrative vs reality for #Oil
- Inventories tells you health of oil is strong
- China/India with record demand
- Refiners see strong oil demand
- Airlines are close to record summer demand
#2
- Weeks from seeing the voluntary cut from OPEC
- Fear of recession is clouding us
- Should experience sharpest drawdown in history this summer
- Even with a recession, expects to end year with a 5-10% low in inventory
- The jolt needed will be those draws starting few weeks
- Weeks from seeing the voluntary cut from OPEC
- Fear of recession is clouding us
- Should experience sharpest drawdown in history this summer
- Even with a recession, expects to end year with a 5-10% low in inventory
- The jolt needed will be those draws starting few weeks
#3
- As bearish today as back in April 2020
$dvn. in $nrgi, yielding 12% at $80, 16% at $100, for income not growth.
- US names are better geared for income
- US peers are trading at a material premium to 🇨🇦
- Only thing we want to own is Cdn Heavy Oil names
- $nnrg is 92% 🇨🇦
- As bearish today as back in April 2020
$dvn. in $nrgi, yielding 12% at $80, 16% at $100, for income not growth.
- US names are better geared for income
- US peers are trading at a material premium to 🇨🇦
- Only thing we want to own is Cdn Heavy Oil names
- $nnrg is 92% 🇨🇦
#4
Why own Cdn Heavy oil?
- Decades worth of fcf for free
- Longer inventory depth
- Lower decline rates
Looking at 200-300% gains over the next couple of years.
Why own Cdn Heavy oil?
- Decades worth of fcf for free
- Longer inventory depth
- Lower decline rates
Looking at 200-300% gains over the next couple of years.
#5
$tve.to
- buying on dips
- in most economic play in Canada, Clearwater & Charlie Lake
- they aggressively bought assets
- constant overhang
- needs to delever
- 18% fcf at $70, 37% fcf at $90
- sees 140-230% upside
- we need patience
- owns 50M shares, near max
$tve.to
- buying on dips
- in most economic play in Canada, Clearwater & Charlie Lake
- they aggressively bought assets
- constant overhang
- needs to delever
- 18% fcf at $70, 37% fcf at $90
- sees 140-230% upside
- we need patience
- owns 50M shares, near max
#6
$tou.to
- wouldn't buy today for capital appreciation
- NG is 17% above 5yr average
- rigs aren't dropping aggressively enough
- well run, great assets
- would buy aggressively at $45
- LNG Gulf Coast is a 2024/2025 catalyst
- CEO with insider buys
$tou.to
- wouldn't buy today for capital appreciation
- NG is 17% above 5yr average
- rigs aren't dropping aggressively enough
- well run, great assets
- would buy aggressively at $45
- LNG Gulf Coast is a 2024/2025 catalyst
- CEO with insider buys
#7
$cnq
- sold $su.to to buy $cnq
- massive inventory depth, Heavy oil
- NG optionality
- final debt tgt end of year, will return 100% to SH
- 13-17-20% fcf at $70-$90
- almost 8% weight in fund
- 10-30 yrs of stay flat inventory
- strong balance sheet
- good inside stewardship
$cnq
- sold $su.to to buy $cnq
- massive inventory depth, Heavy oil
- NG optionality
- final debt tgt end of year, will return 100% to SH
- 13-17-20% fcf at $70-$90
- almost 8% weight in fund
- 10-30 yrs of stay flat inventory
- strong balance sheet
- good inside stewardship
#8
$cpg.to
- aggressively buying back stock like $su.to
- from a Sask/Bakken name to a Montney/Duvernay name
- drilling banger wells
- no more inventory issues
- will return 50% fcf to SH
- 17% fcf at $70, 44% fcf at $90
- more alluring today than 3 months ago
$cpg.to
- aggressively buying back stock like $su.to
- from a Sask/Bakken name to a Montney/Duvernay name
- drilling banger wells
- no more inventory issues
- will return 50% fcf to SH
- 17% fcf at $70, 44% fcf at $90
- more alluring today than 3 months ago
#9
- talks about WB buying of $oxy
$bte.to
- Ranger deal created 19% more fcf
- deal closes in 3 weeks than modest dividend & 50% fcf to buybacks
-bought 1M shares this morning, owns 40M
- 27% fcf at $70, 44% fcf at $80
- asset drilled by crummy operator = crummy wells
cont.
- talks about WB buying of $oxy
$bte.to
- Ranger deal created 19% more fcf
- deal closes in 3 weeks than modest dividend & 50% fcf to buybacks
-bought 1M shares this morning, owns 40M
- 27% fcf at $70, 44% fcf at $80
- asset drilled by crummy operator = crummy wells
cont.
#10
$bte.to (continued)
- vendor of the asset is a PE company which means liquidity is coming to the market, short term overhang
- new CEO has a good track record
- one of Eric's largest personal holdings
- potential multi bagger
$bte.to (continued)
- vendor of the asset is a PE company which means liquidity is coming to the market, short term overhang
- new CEO has a good track record
- one of Eric's largest personal holdings
- potential multi bagger
#11
$meg.to
- largest holding at 12% of the fund
- would of been a top pick
- no brainer if bullish oil
- minimum 35yrs of stay flat inventory
- could privatize in 4yrs
- fcf of $1.1B per year at $80
- will reach debt target by year end = 100% fcf to SH
- > than a double
$meg.to
- largest holding at 12% of the fund
- would of been a top pick
- no brainer if bullish oil
- minimum 35yrs of stay flat inventory
- could privatize in 4yrs
- fcf of $1.1B per year at $80
- will reach debt target by year end = 100% fcf to SH
- > than a double
#12
$erf.to
- 100% US
- 60% Bakken with 12yr quality inventory
- 40% Marcellus NG.
- sold it
- using 60% fcf for buybacks
- compelling valuation
- great quality assets, but to much gas
$erf.to
- 100% US
- 60% Bakken with 12yr quality inventory
- 40% Marcellus NG.
- sold it
- using 60% fcf for buybacks
- compelling valuation
- great quality assets, but to much gas
#13
Why so obsessed with Cdn. Heavy Oil?
- the most discounted on the planet
- demand for heavy oil globally is very strong
- tmx expansion at end of year adds 590k bpd of new takeaway capacity
- WCS <$10 differential
Hasn't given up on this year.
Why so obsessed with Cdn. Heavy Oil?
- the most discounted on the planet
- demand for heavy oil globally is very strong
- tmx expansion at end of year adds 590k bpd of new takeaway capacity
- WCS <$10 differential
Hasn't given up on this year.
#14
$pey.to
- 11% dividend
- should be fine
- if you want a name you should buy $tou.to
$fru.to
- solid royalty name, preferred one
- modest growth
- wouldn't own
$pey.to
- 11% dividend
- should be fine
- if you want a name you should buy $tou.to
$fru.to
- solid royalty name, preferred one
- modest growth
- wouldn't own
#15
$vet.to
- no buy thesis
- hodgepodge of assets
- you owned it because of massive exposure to European NG.
- 2nd warmest winter in EU & greedy Irish govt. 75% tax...killed that.
- inventory debt a concern
- question on quality of assets
- cheap
- paying down debt
$vet.to
- no buy thesis
- hodgepodge of assets
- you owned it because of massive exposure to European NG.
- 2nd warmest winter in EU & greedy Irish govt. 75% tax...killed that.
- inventory debt a concern
- question on quality of assets
- cheap
- paying down debt
#16
$chrd
- only US name in $nnrg
- trades at parity with Cdn names
- 10 yrs safe inventory in the Bakken
- very economic
- returning 75% fcf to SH
- 13% fcf at $70, add 5% per $10
- 83% upside at $80
- 138% upside at $100
$chrd
- only US name in $nnrg
- trades at parity with Cdn names
- 10 yrs safe inventory in the Bakken
- very economic
- returning 75% fcf to SH
- 13% fcf at $70, add 5% per $10
- 83% upside at $80
- 138% upside at $100
#17
$pipe.to
- montney name
- wouldn't buy
- disappointing wells drilled
- Riverstone 40% ownership an overhang
- could be bought
$arx.to
- ultra high quality
- Attachie sanctioned
- 13% fcf at $80
- heavy on NG
- not buying here
$pipe.to
- montney name
- wouldn't buy
- disappointing wells drilled
- Riverstone 40% ownership an overhang
- could be bought
$arx.to
- ultra high quality
- Attachie sanctioned
- 13% fcf at $80
- heavy on NG
- not buying here
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