Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Oil

Most recents (24)

@Qatargas will choose partners for its massive #LNG expansion by year-end & its not unlikely #Qatar will choose an Asian NOC, such as China's CNPC or CNOOC, as a core partner. Why? Well its never just about economics in the Gulf #oil and #gas (thread) #OOTT #ONGT
Choosing an Asian equity parter would reflect how #LNG is more than just an export for Qatar, it's a tool for the small #GCC nation, currently embargoed by its neighbors, to create global interdependencies
This makes even more sense given the difficulty #Qatar is having resigning long-term contracts amidst its marriage to oil-indexation. Bringing on end-users as equity partners is the perfect solution here. As the chart shows, the scale of Qatar's uncontracted position is massive
Read 8 tweets
[Thread] Interview with #Iraq's finance minister Dr. Ali A. Allawi on official government television:

🔴 Gov is attempting to restructure expenses and create liquidity.

🔴 Many pockets of liquidity in SOEs / Ministries that can be utilized. Only once.

(1)
🔴 Iraq needs a universal government financial account.

🔴 Primitive and simplistic budget management system.

🔴 We are dependent on a single source of income: oil revenues (92%) and other income (8%)

(2)
🔴 We need a government of citizens not employees. #Iraq has a bloated payroll.

🔴 Last resort is to reduce gov payroll on individual level. Cuts will be on higher salary scale.

🔴 Private sector can only be competitive if salaries are equitable with public sector.

(3)
Read 11 tweets
So how important is RSI DIVERGENCE? Very!! Check charts for #SP500, #Oil, #EURUSD (all neg. divergence) and for #Volatility (pos. divergence) - and you tell me! 👍#HZupdates
Then take a look at this chart for #XAUUSD #Gold. Massive neg. divergence - even stronger the last 5 months as it rallies in massive RISING WEDGE. Tell me again, that Gold cannot crash!
May also add.... Gold sentiment at 91!
Read 3 tweets
I'm doing a thread on the Danish Ship Finance report @Splash_247 highlighted here: splash247.com/danish-ship-fi…

The full report will be probably available sometime in the future here: shipfinance.dk/shipping-resea…

$STNG $ASC $DSSI $HAFNIA $INSW $EURN $TNK $FRO $DHT #tankers #oott #oil
This is their overview of where we are:
They see a challenging future ahead for shipbuilding and at face value, this sounds bullish for rates (ship supply is coming down right?) but it is not always so.

Desperate shipbuilders offer silly cheap prices to entice orders. Also, governments may decide to finance
Read 18 tweets
These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets
"The sooner #China was included into the international community, the earlier it would learn to play along with international norms, the argument went. But, China’s current measures indicate otherwise. International norms are the ones being played." thediplomat.com/2020/04/how-ch…
"China’s attempts to make the @UN a tool for achieving its hegemonic ambition would erode the institution’s trustworthiness from within and render international cooperation parochial."
"China’s approach to international cooperation would defeat the UN’s purpose to settle distributional conflicts since, very soon, other stakeholders would realize that cooperation is a cloak for advancing China’s national interests."
Read 24 tweets
#BeyondHeadlines: There are not-so-obvious global reasons why the #OilMarketCrash is NOT good for #India.

Heavy #QE/ currency pressure + Intense #geopolitical tension

= #India, importer & friend to all oil producers, in the crosshairs.

Thread on these impacts of #OilPrice 👇 Image
US #oilprice crashed negative for the 1st time in history. West Texas Intermediate (a US crude) traded as low as -$40.32 a barrel. So far the bulk of the losses are in US crude, -200 to -1000%! Global (Brent) crude has not gone down as much because global storage still exists.
#COVID19 #lockdown has sharply cut all travel & thus demand for oil. Excess supply of oil resulted in a shortage of #storage space, esp in North America. As they & slowly the rest of the world run out of storage, the demand for future oil contracts (futures) goes down sharply
Read 11 tweets
#Hilo #OOTT
Cada mancha roja en la imagen es un buque petrolero , los cuales estan quietos por casi todo el mundo.
Se estima que la cantidad almacenada en el transporte marítimo son de 150 millones de barriles, superando el record de 2009 que eran 100 millones de barriles ⬇️
La cantidad almacenada en estos buques petroleros equivalen al 160% de la producción diaria antes de la crisis del covid19 y en mayo podria ser el doble de la producción diaria después de que se apliquen los recortes de la #OPEP ⬇️
Aunque vale decir que la mayor cantidad de crudo almacenado se concentra en los supertanques petroleros (VLCC) con capacidad de transportar hasta 2 millones de barriles cada uno.
La renta de un espacio en un VLCC hasta el 6/Marzo era de 30000USDxdia,hoy es minimo 200.000USD⬇️
Read 4 tweets
@Jkylebass @RaoulGMI holds a similar view, but it garnered very little support at the time and most in finance/trading seem to reject the idea (eg, @JamesGRickards @Nouriel @ErikSTownsend @chigrl @Amena_Bakr). In fact, it's hard to find a supporter of the current administration who agrees.
@Jkylebass @RaoulGMI @JamesGRickards @Nouriel @ErikSTownsend @chigrl @Amena_Bakr 2/ Unsurprisingly foreign policy and international relations circles discuss it openly. If this is in fact a "MBS-PUTIN TWO-STEP" (economic warfare against the US), why the vocal support from the administration for MBS & Putin? Why were we 'peacemaking' these last two weeks...
@Jkylebass @RaoulGMI @JamesGRickards @Nouriel @ErikSTownsend @chigrl @Amena_Bakr 3/ ...and sending them ventilators/PPE? MBS & Putin DEFINITELY knew their 'price war' would be devastating for the US economy during the WU-flu, yet we're supporting them while they attack us? Could you share your thoughts why? (CAN ANYONE??)
Read 20 tweets
#Gold is by end of the day and inflation gauge. See strong correlation below. Now - consider what happens to inflation as #Oil and #Commodities plummet! Then think - what may happen to #Gold... yes?!
an inflation gauge
Another perspective! The sharp decline in inflation is bad news for #Gold and #Silver
Read 4 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets
Oil #Brent #crudeoil WTI vs Brent. Image
1. Most popular grades of oil quality are West Texas Intermediary (WTI) & Brent North Sea Crude (Brent) (sourced from US from Permian basin)
It’s a benchmark for North America
2. Brent is a blend from of 15 oil fields n other in the North Sea. It's 2/3rds of world production. Benchmark for Africa, Europe + Middle East
Read 21 tweets
Last year, my colleagues and I stood before
our peers, faculty, and DFW investors, lecturing on the dangers an expansionist CCP posed to the world.
These threats have already begun to manifest themselves.

Full analysis in thread.
#China #CCPChina #CCPLiedPeopleDied #SLOC #OSINT
China’s state-owned and state-backed ventures, including State-Owned Enterprises (SOE), regional banks, and the People’s Bank of China (#PBOC) have created an ecosystem of interdependence within the Chinese economy that has skyrocketed China’s GDP over the last several decades...
#China has been the fastest growing economy in the world, w/annual growth rate of ~10%.

However, >quarter of GDP is direct SOEs, & 2/3 is funded by State-Owned Banks (SOB), which are funded by the PBOC.
With avg debt-to-asset ratio in Q119 @ 65.7%, There is a #disaster brewing.
Read 16 tweets
A thread on -
What led to the fall?
How does it help India?
What is the Correlation between Brent and WTI?
The WTI crude is a particular quality of crude oil in the US that is traded in the markets like other stocks and commodities. Just like other commodities there are various expiry contracts like a May expiry, June expiry and so on for various future months.
The contract states that anyone who bought the contract and holds till the expiry needs to actually take the delivery of the crude at a place called Cushing in Oklahama which is basically the hub/ market for oil. Vice-verca for the seller of the contract.
Read 13 tweets
Actualizo #Gasolinas
La tendencia del precio del Gasoline RBOB sigue en el margen de ~70uscents/Gal.
No han habido cambios sustantivos, a pesar de ver ahorita al #WTI metido en -40 USD/Ba.
Sin embargo, habrá que considerar que los factores más importantes en la crisis petrolera actual son:
1. Insuficiencia de los recortes acordados en la #OPEC
2. De forma indirecta, @GobiernoMX y @rocionahle causaron los descuentos brutales en el Arab Light hacia América.
3. Básicamente esto trajo como consecuencia también una crisis de almacenamiento, es decir, parte de la solución a esta crisis no solo estriba en los recortes de producción, sino en la capacidad de almacenamiento que tengan los países productores.
energy.gov/articles/doe-a…
Read 7 tweets
#WTI #CrudeOil futures for May,expiring tomorrow,tanked 57%,to $7.98 per barrel

June contract,expiring on 19thMay, traded@ $26.62/barrel

July futures,traded@ $28/barrel

And all this,despite #OPEC's decision to cut supply by 9.7 million barrels a day,wef 1st May2020

#OilCrash
Normally,spread between #Spot &one month forward contract,is 40-50 cents

This time,spread is $10-12,implying weakness in #crudeoil,will continue

Global demand for #Oil in April 2020,was lower by 29 million barrels per day,Vs April 2019

#COVIDー19&global #lockdown, playing out
Indian #Crude basket is a derived basket of #crudeoil comprising #sourcrude(Dubai&Oman)&sweet crude(Brent)

Indian basket,aligned to #Brent crude,has fallen too,but not as much as #WTI crude

April 2020 #Brent@$20.92 per barrel March $32.01
Feb $55.70
Jan 2020@ $63.83

#OilCrash
Read 16 tweets
No doubt in my mind, that current rally in #SP500 and #equities is a counter-trend move - and that we will soon see a major deflationary CRASH. I have updated my SP500 outlook - some changes! Stay tuned for #HZupdates this afternoon. First - 88 km bike ride to Helsingør 👍
Back - a little tired - but feeling good! 🚴💪 Stay tuned for some #HZupdates - my perspectives on markets.
#Deflation phase is not over and done. #CRB tells this story. The decline from w4 top must have 5 waves and throw-over. We still need last leg before SECULAR BOTTOM.
Read 12 tweets
THREAD: Watching @txrrc meeting today at 9:30 CT to discuss prorationing #oil production. Here's some background on the request, which the RRC hasn't granted since 1973: law360.com/articles/12597…
The meeting comes 2 days after OPEC+ announced historic production cuts, and it'll be interesting to see how that colors the RRC's discussion and potential actions: law360.com/articles/12631…
And @APIenergy just put out its statement opposing any production cuts. The group will be one of 55(!) scheduled speakers at today's meeting.
Read 74 tweets
2/ #China unleashes #maritime power to press #EastAsia & #IndoPacific hegemony while #USNavy and US & other governments deal w/#coronavirus #pandemic:
@RadioFreeAsia
>bit.ly/2RrwuEM
@ShaolinTom/@Newsweek
>bit.ly/3aZZ5Jp

#nationalsecurity #natsec #strategy
3/ #China combines #softpower w/ #maritime power in unrelenting pursuit of its international realignment goals even as – or because of – #coronavirus #pandemic rages through #SEAsia:
@SBengali/@latimes
>lat.ms/2y3z8Kc

#nationalsecurity #natsec #strategy #IndoPacific
Read 17 tweets
US, in discussions last night with Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Russia, trying to get Mexico "over the barrel" to do "100,000 fewer barrels," says @POTUS on #oil production.
US will help #Mexico along and reimburse it at a later date, @POTUS said he proposed.
"We have a tremendous energy, New Mexico" and "we want to keep those jobs," adds @POTUS.
Read 53 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
Deciphering the #Serraj vs #Kabir squabble.

1 must go back to May-Oct 2018, when both #UN & #US began exerting a pressure on the #CBL in #Tripoli.

At the time, an #LNA attack on the capital wasn't seen as imminent, nor was a #Hibri-#Kabir reunification considered a hot priority
Following #Haftar's Jun '18 #OilCresc blockade, #US (thru the #UN) helped #CBL devise a measure, which was implemented after the Aug-Sep '18 LoC battle in Tripoli.

An LoC #tax now made the de-facto conversion rate 3.9 dinars to 1 $.

$10k packages were introduced for households.
The #US-designed measure—rolled out by #Kabir in Oct ’18—was effectively a devaluation of the dinar w/ the added benefit of attracting banknotes back into the system.

The measure turned out to be a success.

It also reduced the amount of political controversy surrounding #Kabir
Read 13 tweets
"Busy time, busy time," begins @POTUS.
"We're working very hard to get additional things to New York as quickly as possible," says @POTUS, noting he spoke with @NYGovCuomo.
"We're dealing with big parts of the world" to help them "through this terrible situation," says @POTUS.
Read 74 tweets
Trust you are safe! For a long time, I have been forecasting #DEFLATION. We got that! Today, I want to address, why I think we are about to see a NEW ECONOMIC REGIME arise soon - and why #STAGFLATION will be the transformation into the coming Kondratiev Spring #HZupdates
We know, that Fed and CBs around the world have been printing money - and lots of it! However, we have failed to see inflation - to the regret of Draghi, Yellen, etc. Despite their efforts, inflation has been in decline. Why? Because Velocity of Money has been in strong decline.
Two factors to create inflation: 1) Amount of money 2) Speed of circulation. The latter has been in decline for years as during Kondratiev's Winter, debt has become a burden to society - which hinders growth. The more debt - the less growth - and hence slower money circulation
Read 23 tweets

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