#1

China's appetite for 🇨🇦 oil heads for all-time highs
- 🇨🇦 oil exports to China on pace for a record month
- China pivots away from U.S. crude
- 5M barrels have shipped out of Vancouver in October
- a record for the first 15 days of any month

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #2

- 70% of oil-laden vessels departing Vancouver have sailed for China
- China has been stockpiling 500k bpd of cheap foreign crude
- taking advantage of steep price discounts on Russian & Iranian oil
- Asian demand has driven 🇨🇦 heavy crude to the strongest prices since July

#1

Rick Rule, President & CEO, Rule Investment Media LLC
was on Marketcall. @RealRickRule

- gold has done well when people are concerned about the maintenance of their purchasing power in fiat currency
- US$ is the world's reserve currency
- it's challenged by: #2

- nervousness about impending trade wars with almost everyone
- ongoing debt & deficits
- on-balance sheet liability >$36 trillion
- NPV of off-balance sheet obligations >$100 trillion
- the U.S. govt will have to print US$
- not good for US$ but very good for gold

#1

@ericnuttall was on BNN

- sentiment down to levels of the 2020 Covid shock
- 25 energy stocks made 52-week lows yesterday
- volumes well above average
- RSI back to Covid levels
- sentiment extremely challenged & fragile
- we're living by Twitter feeds #2

- this sector is very very complicated & very very volatile courtesy Trump

False narratives are driving sentiment
- drill baby drill
- wants $50 oil
- grand deals with Iran & Russia

- critically important for investors to take a pause & reflect on fundamentals

#1

Rick Rule, President & CEO, Rule Investment Media was on Marketcall

Gold
- not guessing how high it'll go

How did we get here?
- unsustainable U.S. govt debt
- they're trying to inflate away the NPV of those obligations
- $35 Trillion debt on balance sheet #2

- >$100 Trillion of debt off the balance sheet
- the budget is at $2T of debt/year
- 🇨🇦 isn't much better
- in the 70s the debt was 25% of GDP, today it's 110%
- not surprised if over the next 10 years the US$ loses 75% of its purchasing power

#1

@ericnuttall was on Marketcall

His top picks : $meg.to $tve.to $fru.to

$meg
- really really imminent on reaching its final debt target of $600M
- expects by Oct 100% fcf to SH
- 35 years of super high-quality safe-side inventory
- at $70 fcf 11%
- at $80 fcf 16% ( cont) #2 $meg.to (cont)

- predominantly buybacks
- with an absence of buyers, this will bring a re-rate
- 10% fcf at $80 oil = pt ~$40
- markets are ignoring the hidden value of the compound effect of meaningful buybacks year after year after year after year
(cont)

#1

Anas Alhajji on Nat Gas

Definitely one you should listen too. Otherwise you'll miss out on some very interesting stories. 🌞

- Econ101
- rolling maintenance, they're not going to sell their nat gas or LNG at a loss
- a contrarian on Global LNG market

https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/1827783028355051888

#2

- we said no surplus & higher prices and we're bang on
- also a contrarian on European gas market
- Europe not out of the woods yet
- high probability on experiencing an energy shortage there
- lucky the last 2 years
- 2 mild winters
- minor hurricane seasons in GOM

#1

Rick Rule, President & CEO, Rule Investment Media was on Marketcall.

His top 3 picks

1) $fnv:nyse

- finest gold miner in the world
- management expense ratio is infinitesimal 😯
- penalized by Panama mine closure
- 15% of NAV, but stock ⬇️35% which is overdone
(cont) #2 $fnv:nyse (cont)

- the decision on the mine needs to be reversed
- it's >5% of the GDP & >25% of Panama's export earnings
- a claim in arbitration > US$10B
- seldom can you buy FNV at a fair price, this is a fair price
- great big deposits that they have royalties on
(cont)

#1

@ericnuttall was on marketcall

This is his coverage on stocks

$vet

- was a short-term holding in Jan
- cost him performance
- blindsided by Irish windfall tax
- 2.7x at $80 25% fcf
- 25% fcf returned by buybacks
- lost leverage to european gas exposure
(cont.) #2 $vet (cont.)

- inexpensive stock
- should trade at a discount
- a concern on depth of inventory
- should trade 3x at $80 = 20% ⬆️

#1

@Josh_Young_1 was on BNN.

- Odd stories concerning OPEC+
- This week one on possible dissent & a price war
- This probably won't happen & instead it's simply a question of formalising some of the previous voluntary cuts or maybe add to it

bnnbloomberg.ca/video/opec-con… #2

- Small probability that they cut pretty deeply
- Believes OPEC+ comfort zone is $80-$90 WTI
- OPEC+ biggest concern is underinvestment in oil development globally
- They want to control the supply to maintain a base level of price

#1

@ericnuttall was on @marketcall.

- Huge divergence between narrative vs reality for #Oil
- Inventories tells you health of oil is strong
- China/India with record demand
- Refiners see strong oil demand
- Airlines are close to record summer demand #2

- Weeks from seeing the voluntary cut from OPEC
- Fear of recession is clouding us
- Should experience sharpest drawdown in history this summer
- Even with a recession, expects to end year with a 5-10% low in inventory
- The jolt needed will be those draws starting few weeks